Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and implications for water resources project planning and management

Abstract. Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An advanced physical based distributed hydrological model is applied to determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectorial water demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 132 km3 yr−1 in 2050, while total water shortage will grow to 199 km3 yr−1 in 2050 for the average climate change projection; an increase of 157 km3. This increase in shortage is the combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50% with a decrease in water supply by 12%. Uncertainty based on the output of the nine GCMs applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km3 to 283 km3 in 2050. The analysis shows that 22% of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78% to changes in socio-economic factors.

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Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-16-3101-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 16 (9) ◽

pp. 3101-3114 ◽

Cited By ~ 77

Author(s):

P. Droogers ◽

W. W. Immerzeel ◽

W. Terink ◽

J. Hoogeveen ◽

M. F. P. Bierkens ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Middle East ◽

North Africa ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Mena Region ◽

Allocation Model ◽

Physically Based ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An advanced, physically based, distributed, hydrological model is applied to determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectoral water demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 393 km3 yr−1 in 2050, while total water shortage will grow to 199 km3 yr−1 in 2050 for the average climate change projection, an increase of 157 km3 yr−1. This increase in shortage is the combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50% with a decrease in water supply by 12%. Uncertainty, based on the output of the nine GCMs applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km3 yr−1 to 283 km3 yr−1~in 2050. The analysis shows that 22% of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78% to changes in socio-economic factors.

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The Water-Energy Nexus in the Middle East and North Africa under Climate Change

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5687 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Manfred A. Lange

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Middle East ◽

North Africa ◽

Mediterranean Basin ◽

Mena Region ◽

Mena Countries ◽

Water Energy Nexus ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The Mediterranean Basin ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) encompasses countries of the eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, and North Africa, from Morocco in the West to the Islamic Republic of Iran in the East and from the Syrian Arab Republic in the North to the Republic of Yemen in the South. It is home to some 500 million inhabitants and is characterized by widely varied political and economic settings and a rich cultural heritage. Stark environmental gradients, as well as significant differences in the provision of ecosystem services, both East to West and South to North, are typical for the MENA Region.Climate changes in the Mediterranean Basin, in general, and in the MENA countries, in particular, currently exceed global mean values significantly. Numerical model results indicate that this trend will continue in the near future and imply that the number of extreme summer temperatures and heatwaves may increase significantly over the coming decades. At the same time, a decrease in precipitation and a significantly longer dry season for most MENA countries than at present are anticipated. This leads to a significantly increased demand for water and energy. In addition, other factors further exacerbate these demands in the MENA, including the general economic development, extreme population growth and increasing urbanization, changes in lifestyle, shifting consumption patterns, inefficiencies in the use of resources that result from technical and managerial inadequacies and energy and water subsidies in several countries of the region to name but a few.The impacts of climate change will be particularly severe in urban settings and large cities of the Mediterranean Basin and the MENA region. Cities will see an enhanced heat accumulation compared to the surrounding rural land due to heat-build-up in buildings, transportation infrastructure, and enhanced human activities. Reduced ventilation within cities exacerbates the warming, particularly during summer heatwaves. Consequently, additional, energy-intensive space cooling will be needed in order to maintain acceptable indoor conditions. With regard to water scarcity, the aforementioned decreases in precipitation will reduce available drinking water for city inhabitants and green spaces. This requires the provision of unconventional water sources, e.g., through desalination, which requires significant quantities of energy. Overall, climate change will exacerbate resource demand for water and energy, in general, and in urban settings, in particular.However, the provision of water and energy are interrelated. In order to maintain water and energy security in the MENA region, these issues need therefore be considered holistically in the framework of the Water-Energy-Nexus (WEN).The present paper aims to elucidate some of the interrelationships between water and energy resources and their provision and will briefly outline a few of the possible mitigation/adaptation options/strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on the MENA region and its inhabitants.

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Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-010-9835-4 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 104 (3-4) ◽

pp. 599-627 ◽

Cited By ~ 157

Author(s):

Jeannie Sowers ◽

Avner Vengosh ◽

Erika Weinthal

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Middle East ◽

North Africa

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Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on the Outbreak of Early Twenty-First-Century Violence in the Middle East and North Africa and the Potential of Permaculture as an Effective Adaptation

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-16-0130.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 179-186

Author(s):

M. Elyas Karim

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Middle East ◽

North Africa ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Environmental Crisis ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Mena Region ◽

Early Twenty ◽

Underlying Causes ◽

The Impact

Abstract Considering the ongoing violence taking place in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, especially within Syria and Iraq, it is essential to provide an accurate explanation of causes in order to develop an adaptation model. In addition to discussing the climate-related concerns associated with the emergence of violence, this paper considers how tackling the environmental crisis in MENA will improve living standards and lead toward sustainable development. As a supplement to a range of secondary data, a small selection of individuals who have escaped the recent conflicts have been interviewed. Because this potential sample pool is small, and the ongoing violence precludes fieldwork in the MENA region, this study provides only a preliminary exploration of the topic. A more detailed study is desirable, if and when it is feasible to conduct such research. As a potential adaptation to climate change in the region, permaculture is presented through illustrations of its capabilities for redressing some of the underlying causes of violence in the MENA region.

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Impacts of Climate Change on the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East and North Africa Region and the Water–Energy Nexus

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10080455 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 455 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Manfred A. Lange

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Middle East ◽

North Africa ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Mena Region ◽

Large Variability ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Water Energy Nexus ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The present paper aims to elucidate impacts of climate change on the availability and security of water and energy in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA region; including the Eastern Mediterranean) in the context of the water–energy nexus. It largely builds on existing knowledge and understanding and aims to present a review of existing information on this topic. The region is particularly challenged by a number of factors, including the large variability of bio-geographical characteristics, extreme population growth over the last few decades, and substantial societal and economical transitions, as well as armed conflicts in some of the countries in the region. Anticipated changes in climate conditions will exacerbate the challenges regarding water and energy security in the region. Major impacts of climate change include a significant increase in summer temperatures, which will lead to a growing number of heat waves, primarily in urban structures. A general decrease in precipitation in many of the MENA countries is foreseen, resulting in enhanced droughts and a growing number of dry spells. In addressing energy and water scarcities and their mutual interrelationships, an integrated water–energy nexus concept offers promising prospects to improve environmental, climate, human, and political security. However, only very few countries in the MENA region have presently implemented such a concept. Mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing water and energy scarcity include enhanced efficiency of resource use, integrated technology assessments regarding electricity generation, and a stronger reliance on renewable/solar technologies. While looking at the MENA region as a whole, some emphasis will be given to Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean.

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COULD WATER CO-MANAGEMENT CONTRIBUTE TO PEACE, IN MIDDLE EAST?

Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece ◽

10.12681/bgsg.11351 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 43 (4) ◽

pp. 1672

Author(s):

B. Christaras

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Middle East ◽

North Africa ◽

Sea Water ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

World Population ◽

Mena Region ◽

Deep Aquifers ◽

Precious Resource ◽

Almost All

Water is the most precious resource in the Middle East, more important even than oil, given that while the citizens represent the 5% of the total world population, the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region contains only 0.9% of global water resources (World Bank, 1996, Allan, 1999). For this reason, almost all conflicts, in Middle East, are mainly related to shared-water resources. Historically, water was very often used as military tool or for religious purposes, Conflicts, for water management, were known from ancient years, till to the recent time. But also in our days, by 2010, the water deficit (difference between water supply and demand) is estimated to be at around 1 billion cubic meters, explaining the importance of the water to the joint futures of Palestinians, Jordanians, and Israelis. For managing the water demand, various projects were proposed or already performed related to deep aquifers pumping, brackish-groundwater reverse-osmosis desalination, sea water desalinization, water transfer using canal or pipeline systems and dam construction. Nevertheless, it is important to understand that Peace can be possible in Middle East only if a rational and fair co-management of water resources could be real.

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A review on waste management and compost production in the Middle East–North Africa region

Waste Management & Research ◽

10.1177/0734242x211068236 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 0734242X2110682

Author(s):

Lara Hussein ◽

Ceylan Uren ◽

Fatma Rekik ◽

Zied Hammami

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Middle East ◽

Waste Management ◽

Solid Waste ◽

North Africa ◽

Organic Waste ◽

Management Practices ◽

Mena Region ◽

Mena Countries ◽

Waste Management Practices

Over the last two decades, solid waste management in the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) region has been one of the major challenges due to increasing solid waste quantities and poor waste management practices. With the tremendously increasing amounts of organic waste, MENA countries are under great pressure and are facing the threats of acute air pollution, contamination of water bodies and climate change. As a result, these countries are adopting different methods to cope with this rising challenge of waste management, including composting. This review reports on the different MENA countries’ organic waste quantities, disposal methods, organic waste management practices and challenges, along with the potential use and demand of compost, where information is available. The reported data are from 2009 to 2021, with the bulk of the papers being from 2014 and onwards. The total amount of municipal waste collected in the 21 countries ranged from 0.56 million tons in Mauritania to 90 million tons in Egypt, with an average of 16.42 million tons, equivalent to 1.08 kg per capita waste generation per day. Around 55% of this material is biogenous. Many treatments and repurposing methods of this material are adopted in the MENA region, mainly through composting, as it presents one of the most sustainable solutions that lead to immediate climate change mitigation. This article also presents the biotic and abiotic stressors faced by this region, which in turn affect the successful implementation of composting solutions, and proposes some solutions based on different studies conducted.

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Evapotranspiration and water availability response to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-021-03122-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 166 (3-4) ◽

Author(s):

Salah Basem Ajjur ◽

Sami G. Al-Ghamdi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Middle East ◽

North Africa ◽

Water Availability ◽

First Century ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Mena Region ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

The Impact

AbstractQuantifying the impact of climate change on evapotranspiration is necessary for devising accurate water and energy budgets in light of global warming. Nevertheless, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), little has been done to bridge this gap. This study, then, implements Penman and Budyko approaches to climatic data retrieved from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess evapotranspiration and water availability evolutions through the twenty-first century. Outcomes reveal that the MENA region is indeed vulnerable to a surge in temperature, which can increase evapotranspiration losses and decrease water availability. Under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2-4.5), the potential evapotranspiration (PET) has been projected to increase throughout the MENA region by up to 0.37 mm per year during the middle of the twenty-first century (2021–2050) and by up to 0.51 mm per year during the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). Meanwhile, the actual evapotranspiration (AET) has been projected to increase by up to 0.3 (~0.2) mm per year before 2050 (2100). The trends in both projections (PET and AET) are exaggerated under SSP5-8.5. The analysis predicted a shortage of water availability (precipitation—AET), which is alarming for most MENA regions. Relative to the reference period (1981–2010), the decline in annual water availability would reach 26 (62) mm by 2100 under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5). The rise in temperatures appears to be the principal reason for MENA and water availability responses. This study’s outcomes can facilitate accurate and realistic predictions related to evapotranspiration and water availability, which are key elements in not only managing water resources but also in devising effective climate change mitigation and adaptation plans.

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Transitions Within Queer North African Cinema

Screen Bodies ◽

10.3167/screen.2017.020205 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 64-77 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Walter S. Temple

Keyword(s):

Social Media ◽

Middle East ◽

North Africa ◽

Film Festivals ◽

Global Awareness ◽

Critical Factors ◽

North African ◽

Mena Region ◽

African Cinema ◽

Queer Cinema

In recent years, North African queer cinema has become increasingly visible both within and beyond Arabo-Orientale spaces. A number of critical factors have contributed to a global awareness of queer identities in contemporary Maghrebi cinema, including the dissemination of films through social media outlets and during international film festivals. Such tout contemporain representations of queer sexuality characterize a robust wave of films in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, inciting a new discourse on the condition of the marginalized traveler struggling to locate new forms of self and being—both at home and abroad.

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