scholarly journals Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 3101-3114 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Droogers ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel ◽  
W. Terink ◽  
J. Hoogeveen ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An advanced, physically based, distributed, hydrological model is applied to determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectoral water demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 393 km3 yr−1 in 2050, while total water shortage will grow to 199 km3 yr−1 in 2050 for the average climate change projection, an increase of 157 km3 yr−1. This increase in shortage is the combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50% with a decrease in water supply by 12%. Uncertainty, based on the output of the nine GCMs applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km3 yr−1 to 283 km3 yr−1~in 2050. The analysis shows that 22% of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78% to changes in socio-economic factors.

scholarly journals Modeling water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 4381-4416 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Droogers ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel ◽  
W. Terink ◽  
J. Hoogeveen ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An advanced physical based distributed hydrological model is applied to determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectorial water demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 132 km3 yr−1 in 2050, while total water shortage will grow to 199 km3 yr−1 in 2050 for the average climate change projection; an increase of 157 km3. This increase in shortage is the combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50% with a decrease in water supply by 12%. Uncertainty based on the output of the nine GCMs applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km3 to 283 km3 in 2050. The analysis shows that 22% of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78% to changes in socio-economic factors.

scholarly journals Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on the Outbreak of Early Twenty-First-Century Violence in the Middle East and North Africa and the Potential of Permaculture as an Effective Adaptation

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-186
Author(s):  
M. Elyas Karim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Environmental Crisis ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Considering the ongoing violence taking place in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, especially within Syria and Iraq, it is essential to provide an accurate explanation of causes in order to develop an adaptation model. In addition to discussing the climate-related concerns associated with the emergence of violence, this paper considers how tackling the environmental crisis in MENA will improve living standards and lead toward sustainable development. As a supplement to a range of secondary data, a small selection of individuals who have escaped the recent conflicts have been interviewed. Because this potential sample pool is small, and the ongoing violence precludes fieldwork in the MENA region, this study provides only a preliminary exploration of the topic. A more detailed study is desirable, if and when it is feasible to conduct such research. As a potential adaptation to climate change in the region, permaculture is presented through illustrations of its capabilities for redressing some of the underlying causes of violence in the MENA region.

scholarly journals Evapotranspiration and water availability response to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salah Basem Ajjur ◽  
Sami G. Al-Ghamdi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

AbstractQuantifying the impact of climate change on evapotranspiration is necessary for devising accurate water and energy budgets in light of global warming. Nevertheless, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), little has been done to bridge this gap. This study, then, implements Penman and Budyko approaches to climatic data retrieved from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess evapotranspiration and water availability evolutions through the twenty-first century. Outcomes reveal that the MENA region is indeed vulnerable to a surge in temperature, which can increase evapotranspiration losses and decrease water availability. Under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2-4.5), the potential evapotranspiration (PET) has been projected to increase throughout the MENA region by up to 0.37 mm per year during the middle of the twenty-first century (2021–2050) and by up to 0.51 mm per year during the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). Meanwhile, the actual evapotranspiration (AET) has been projected to increase by up to 0.3 (~0.2) mm per year before 2050 (2100). The trends in both projections (PET and AET) are exaggerated under SSP5-8.5. The analysis predicted a shortage of water availability (precipitation—AET), which is alarming for most MENA regions. Relative to the reference period (1981–2010), the decline in annual water availability would reach 26 (62) mm by 2100 under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5). The rise in temperatures appears to be the principal reason for MENA and water availability responses. This study’s outcomes can facilitate accurate and realistic predictions related to evapotranspiration and water availability, which are key elements in not only managing water resources but also in devising effective climate change mitigation and adaptation plans.

scholarly journals Influence of COVID-19 on lifestyle behaviors in the Middle East and North Africa Region: a survey of 5896 individuals

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Abouzid ◽  
◽  
Dina M. El-Sherif ◽  
Nael Kamel Eltewacy ◽  
Nesrine Ben Hadj Dahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Food Consumption ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Fast Food ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Eating Habits ◽  
Lifestyle Behaviors ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected health and lifestyle behaviors of people globally. This project aims to identify the impact of COVID-19 on lifestyle behavior of individuals in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during confinement. Methods We conducted an online survey in 17 countries (Egypt, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Yemen, Syria, Palestine, Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Tunisia, Iraq, and Sudan) from the MENA region on August and September 2020. The questionnaire included self-reported information on lifestyle behaviors, including physical activity, eating habits, smoking, watching television, social media use and sleep before and during the pandemic. Logistic regression was performed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on lifestyle behaviors. Results A total of 5896 participants were included in the final analysis and 62.8% were females. The BMI of the participants was 25.4 ± 5.8 kg/m2. Around 38.4% of the participants stopped practicing any physical activities during the confinement (P < 0.001), and 57.1% reported spending more than 2 h on social media (P < 0.001). There were no significant changes in smoking habits. Also, 30.9% reported an improvement in their eating habits compared with 24.8% reported worsening of their eating habits. Fast-food consumption decreased significantly in 48.8% of the study population. This direct/indirect exposure to COVID-19 was associated with an increased consumption of carbohydrates (OR = 1.09; 95% CI = 1.02–1.17; P = 0.01), egg (OR = 1.08; 95% CI = 1.02–1.16; P = 0.01), sugar (OR = 1.09; 95% CI = 1.02–1.16; P = 0.02), meat, and poultry (OR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.06–1.20; P < 0.01). There was also associated increase in hours spent on watching television (OR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.02–1.12; P < 0.01) and social media (OR = 1.09; 95% CI = 1.01–1.18; P = 0.03). However, our results showed a reduction in sleeping hours among those exposed to COVID-19 infection (OR = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.77–0.94; P < 0.01). Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an increase in food consumption and sedentary life. Being exposed to COVID-19 by direct infection or through an infected household is a significant predictor of amplifying these changes. Public health interventions are needed to address healthy lifestyle behaviors during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Environmental Performance and Economic Growth in Middle East and North Africa Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hichem Dkhili
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Environmental Performance ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
The Impact

Background. Studies on environmental performance/quality and economic growth show inconclusive results. Objective. The aim of the present study is to assess the non-linear relationship between environmental performance and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from 2002–2018. Methods. A sample of fourteen (14) MENA countries was used in the present analysis. However, due to important differences between countries in this region, the whole sample was divided into two sub-samples; nine Middle Eastern countries (MEAS) and five North African countries (NAF). We performed the panel smooth transition regression model as an econometric approach. Discussion. Empirical results indicate a threshold effect in the environmental performance and economic growth relationship. The threshold value differs from one group of countries to another. More specifically, we found that the impact of environmental performance and economic growth is positive and significant only if a certain threshold level has been attained. Until then, the effect remains negative. Conclusions. The findings of the present study are of great importance for policymakers since they determine the optimal level of environmental performance required to act positively on the level of economic growth. MENA countries should seek to improve their environmental performance index in order to grow output. Competing Interests. The authors declare no competing financial interests.

scholarly journals Integrated assessment of impact of water resources of important river basins in Eastern India under projected climate conditions

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 594-606 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Eastern India ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Impact

<div> <p>The impact of climate change on water resources through increased evaporation combined with regional changes in precipitation characteristics has the potential to affect mean runoff, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture and water supply for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) system is the largest in India with a catchment area of about 110Mha, which is more than 43% of the cumulative catchment area of all the major rivers in the country. The river Damodar is an important sub catchment of GBM basin and its three tributaries- the Bokaro, the Konar and the Barakar form one important tributary of the Bhagirathi-Hughli (a tributary of Ganga) in its lower reaches. The present study is an attempt to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources of the four important Eastern River Basins namely Damodar, Subarnarekha, Mahanadi and Ajoy, which have immense importance in industrial and agricultural scenarios in eastern India. A distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) has been used on the four river basins using HadRM2 daily weather data for the period from 2041 to 2060 to predict the impact of climate change on water resources of these river systems.&nbsp;</p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p>

scholarly journals Social Trust in the Middle East and North Africa: The Context-Dependent Impact of Citizens’ Socio-Economic and Religious Characteristics

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 894-911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niels Spierings
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Social Trust ◽  
Context Dependency ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Systematic Assessment ◽  
Context Sensitive ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Our knowledge of social trust's drivers in the MENA region is limited and there are good reasons to expect that theories based on Western countries cannot be copied to the MENA one-to-one. Arguing for a broader and at the same time context-sensitive comparative approach, I translate the ‘societal winners’, social capital, and religious beliefs mechanisms explaining trust to the MENA context. Moreover, I acknowledge intraregional diversity and test how the impact of these factors also differs among MENA countries. Empirically, I synchronize 47 surveys from 15 MENA countries, which provides the broadest and most systematic assessment of trust in the MENA to date. The results show that the societal-winner mechanism does not hold: employed, higher education and wealthier citizens are not more trusting. However, higher-educated citizens distrust other citizens more, particularly in the strongest autocracies. Religiosity seems pivotal too. Among others, service-attending citizens are more trusting, mainly where regimes regulate religious affairs. Overall, this study provides insight into what shapes generalized social trust in the Middle East and North Africa and it underscores that at a comparative level we need to consider inter-regional and intra-regional forms of context-dependency were we to formulate a broadly applicable theoretical framework of trust's drivers.

The Water-Energy Nexus in the Middle East and North Africa under Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manfred A. Lange
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Water Energy Nexus ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

&lt;p&gt;The region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) encompasses countries of the eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, and North Africa, from Morocco in the West to the Islamic Republic of Iran in the East and from the Syrian Arab Republic in the North to the Republic of Yemen in the South. It is home to some 500 million inhabitants and is characterized by widely varied political and economic settings and a rich cultural heritage. Stark environmental gradients, as well as significant differences in the provision of ecosystem services, both East to West and South to North, are typical for the MENA Region.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Climate changes in the Mediterranean Basin, in general, and in the MENA countries, in particular, currently exceed global mean values significantly. Numerical model results indicate that this trend will continue in the near future and imply that the number of extreme summer temperatures and heatwaves may increase significantly over the coming decades. At the same time, a decrease in precipitation and a significantly longer dry season for most MENA countries than at present are anticipated. This leads to a significantly increased demand for water and energy. In addition, other factors further exacerbate these demands in the MENA, including the general economic development, extreme population growth and increasing urbanization, changes in lifestyle, shifting consumption patterns, inefficiencies in the use of resources that result from technical and managerial inadequacies and energy and water subsidies in several countries of the region to name but a few.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The impacts of climate change will be particularly severe in urban settings and large cities of the Mediterranean Basin and the MENA region. Cities will see an enhanced heat accumulation compared to the surrounding rural land due to heat-build-up in buildings, transportation infrastructure, and enhanced human activities. Reduced ventilation within cities exacerbates the warming, particularly during summer heatwaves. Consequently, additional, energy-intensive space cooling will be needed in order to maintain acceptable indoor conditions. With regard to water scarcity, the aforementioned decreases in precipitation will reduce available drinking water for city inhabitants and green spaces. This requires the provision of unconventional water sources, e.g., through desalination, which requires significant quantities of energy. Overall, climate change will exacerbate resource demand for water and energy, in general, and in urban settings, in particular.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;However, the provision of water and energy are interrelated. In order to maintain water and energy security in the MENA region, these issues need therefore be considered holistically in the framework of the Water-Energy-Nexus (WEN).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The present paper aims to elucidate some of the interrelationships between water and energy resources and their provision and will briefly outline a few of the possible mitigation/adaptation options/strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on the MENA region and its inhabitants.&lt;/p&gt;

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