Profitability, risk and cash flow deficit for beginning cow–calf producers

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos J.O. Trejo-Pech ◽  
Jared Bruhin ◽  
Christopher N. Boyer ◽  
S. Aaron Smith
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Herd Size ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Production Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Cow Calf

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to estimate the amount of cash flow deficit, if any, needed to maintain the operating costs and service debt of a startup cow–calf enterprise. The study compares long-term profitability and risk between starting small and building a herd to full carrying capacity or by starting at desired herd capacity.Design/methodology/approachA dynamic cattle growth model was developed to capture expanding and maintaining the desired herd size. Discounted cash flow (DCF) models over a 15-year period were calculated to estimate net present value (NPV), modified internal rate of return (MIRR) and cash flow deficit to keep the business operating and service debt. Simulation analyses were conducted considering price and production risk.FindingsStarting at the desired herd size was preferred, according to NPV/MIRR and cash flow deficit, but the differences were not substantial. Assuming the operation is liquidated at book values, there was a 36.3% probability of this enterprise having a zero or positive NPV. If the conservative terminal value assumption is relaxed up to feasible market values, the cow–calf enterprise is economically attractive at an estimated 2.4% opportunity cost of capital. However, the producer would experience a cash flow deficit during the first seven years, which was simulated to be $14,892 and $15,985 annual for both strategies.Originality/valueInnovative methods used in this study include varying the annual opportunity cost of capital as a function of financing decisions, stochastic prices by cattle type and stochastic weaning weights that are a function of a dynamic cattle model.

Do combining value estimates increase valuation accuracy? Evidence from Indian chemical industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjit Tiwari ◽  
Harish Kumar Singla
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Chemical Industry ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Income Model

Purpose – Being a developing nation with huge opportunity of growth prospects the assessment of valuation models becomes important to have a more realistic value estimate. The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the comparative accuracy and explanatory performance of discounted cash flow (DCF) and residual income model (RIM) valuation models for the Indian chemical industry and come up with a composite valuation model. Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the objective of the study the authors first determine the intrinsic values using both the models. Comparisons of the models are based on prediction errors and the explanatory performance of market value on value estimates. The study uses panel regression to forecast estimates of earnings and measure explanatory performance. The authors examine the ability of the value estimates to explain cross-sectional variation in the observed market values. The study also uses GMM method for deriving robust estimators. Variables for the study are collected from the CMIE’s prowess data base (release 4). The authors consider all 1,075 BSE listed chemical companies for the purpose of the study. The study uses annual data points starting from 31 March 2002 to 31 March 2011. Findings – The comparative framework shows that both Residual Income model and Composite Valuation model are superior to Discounted cash flow model and are equally likely. But since composite value estimates considers all bonafide informations of individual models, the estimates of Composite Valuation model becomes more reliable. Research limitations/implications – The study only compares and combines the two most widely used valuation models around the world. Future studies can be conducted using the third widely used valuation models, i.e. multiples and see the level of accuracy of individuals as well as the composite model. Originality/value – As a concern very few research has been conducted in this area in India. This paper provides practitioners with a snapshot of the applicability of DCF and RIM valuation models. And also shows how a composite value estimate can improve accuracy.

AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF NET PRESENT VALUE AND EQUIVALENT ANNUAL COST

1982 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas W. Jones ◽  
David Smith
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Annual Cost ◽  
Historical Development ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow

Net present value and equivalent annual cost are two discounted cash flow criteria for comparing investment proposals. Why have accountants taken to net present value? Why do engineers readily use equivalent annual cost? This paper investigates the historical development of these principles to provide an explanation of why this is so.

VALUASI BISNIS BARU DAN OPTIMAL CAPITAL PERUSAHAAN JASA INDUSTRI (MAKLON) BAGI UMKM KERIPIK KEMASAN. (STUDI KASUS: PT KRISPINDO)

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 254-269
Author(s):  
Helena Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Going Concern ◽  
Internal Rate ◽  
New Business ◽  
Equity Ratio

The increase of MSMEs in the food and beverage industry recently experiencing significant growth, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. According to statistical data released by the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) in November 2020, the food industry dominated Micro and Small businesses in 2019 for 36.23%. The increasing number of MSME businesses in this sector becomes an opportunity for the processing services industry (contract manufacturer) to help MSMEs with all limitations. This study conducted a case study on PT. Krispindo as a company engaged in processing services (contract manufacturer) in the snack sector. This research aims to assess (valuation) new business proposed by PT. Krispindo in terms of optimal use of debt and equity for the company and also investment returns that can be given to investors. In addition, this research also aims to assist the company in making decisions for the following period project, decision to continue or discontinue the business. This study used optimal Cost of Capital (WACC) and Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER) in setting optimal business capital. To measure investment return expectations for investors, the study used the company's Net Present Value (NPV), Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) approaches. To find out whether or not the business is further, this study uses Terminal Value Asset (TVA) and On Going Concern Value from the business obtained when the project ending. The results prove using debt in capital has more benefit for the company and the business can continue after the projection period ends.   Keywords: New Business Valuation (NPV), Debt-to-equity ratio (DER), Average Cost of Capital (WACC), Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Terminal Value Asset (TVA) and On Going Concern Value

The Weitzman Argument

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Gollier
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Simple Rule ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Net Benefits

This chapter examines a model in which the exogeneous rate of return of capital is constant but random. Safe investment projects must be evaluated and implemented before this uncertainty can be fully revealed, i.e., before knowing the opportunity cost of capital. A simple rule of thumb in this context would be to compute the net present value (NPV) for each possible discount rate, and to implement the project if the expected NPV is positive. If the evaluator uses this approach, this is as if one would discount cash flows at a rate that is decreasing with maturity. This approach is implicitly based on the assumptions that the stakeholders are risk-neutral and transfer the net benefits of the project to an increase in immediate consumption. Opposite results prevail if one assumes that the net benefit is consumed at the maturity of the project.

Usec Inc.

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Kenneth M. Eades ◽  
Ben Mackovjak ◽  
Lucas Doe
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Important Input

This case is designed to present students with the challenges of formulating a discounted-cash-flow (DCF) analysis for a strategically important capital-investment decision. Analytically, the problem is representative of most corporate investment decisions, but it is particularly interesting because of the massive size of the American Centrifuge Project and the potential of the project to significantly affect the stock price. Students must determine the relevant cash flows, paying close attention to the treatment of input costs, selling prices, timing of investment outlays, depreciation, and inflation. An important input is the appropriate cost of uranium, which some students argue should be included at book value, while others argue that market value should be used. Although the primary objective of the case is to focus on the estimation of cash flows, students are provided with a straightforward set of inputs to estimate USEC's weighted average cost of capital. The case is designed for students who are learning, or need a refresher on, DCF analysis. Because of the basic issues covered, the case works well with undergraduate, MBA, and executive-education audiences. The case also affords the opportunity to explore a variety of issues related to capital-investment analysis, including relevant costs, incremental analysis, cost of capital, and sensitivity analysis. The case is an excellent example of the value of a firm as the value of assets in place plus the net present value of future growth opportunities.

OPTIMASI STRIPPING RATIO DENGAN METODE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW PADA PROJECT PLTU MULUT TAMBANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 128-133
Author(s):  
Yudi Arista Yulanda ◽  
M. Taufik Toha ◽  
Fahrurrozi Syarkowi
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow

Harga batubara acuan pada bulan Januari 2020 adalah 65.93 USD/ton turun jauh dari tahun 2018 dimana harga batubara acuan sempat mencapai 107.83 USD/ton pada bulan Agustus. Dalam upaya menaikkan ratio elektrifikasi dalam RUPTL PLN 2018-2027 PLTU Mulut Tambang mendapatkan porsi 11 persen dengan peningkatan jumlah pembangkit setiap tahun nya. Keberadaan Batubara sebagai sumber daya alam yang terbatas dan tidak dapat diperbaharui menuntut penerapan prinsip konservasi cadangan batubara untuk mengoptimalkan keuntungan dan cadangan dengan memilih Stripping Ratio yang optimum. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu untuk menentukan Stripping Ratio Optimum yang akan memberikan keuntungan terbaik menggunakan metode discounted cash flow sehingga batas penambangan optimum (Ultimate Pit Limit) juga dapat ditentukan. Optimasi ini dilakukan dengan men-generate data variasi Stripping Ratio yang menggambarkan pit limit dan cadangan dari masing-masing stripping ratio tersebut kemudian memasukkan konsiderasi ekonomi yang di discount rate untuk mendapat angka Net Present Value (NPV) sehingga bisa dianalisis dalam kurva optimasi. Hasil penelitian adalah Stripping Ratio optimum berdasarkan kurva optimasi dengan metode Konvensional NPV skenario Spot Price adalah 4.5 dengan total cadangan 7.5jt MT dan umur tambang 8 Tahun serta NPV 21,7 juta US$.

Application of discounted cash flow model valuation: The case of Excide industries

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 170-179
Author(s):  
Ashok Panigrahi ◽  
Kushal Vachhani ◽  
Mohit Sisodia
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
The Other ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Valuation Technique

Theoretical and practical features of the widely used discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation approach are examined in depth in this paper. This research evaluates Exide Industries by using the DCF Valuation technique. It is widely accepted that the discounted cash flow approach is an effective tool for analyzing the situation of an organization even in the most complicated circumstances. The DCF approach, on the other hand, is prone to huge assumption bias, and even little modifications in an analysis' underlying assumptions may substantially affect the valuation findings. As a result, of the sensitivity analysis, we discovered bullish, base, and worst-case scenarios with target share prices of Rs. 253.25, Rs. 171.37, and Rs.133.25, respectively, by adjusting growth and WACC (Weighted-Average Cost of Capital) values.

Communications Solutions: cashing in the chips

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 312-341
Author(s):  
Susan White
Keyword(s):  
Small Business ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Small Business Owners ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Valuation ◽  
Consulting Services ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Synopsis Communication Solutions (CS), a woman-owned business, experienced fast growth at its inception, and then found itself slowing after the mid-2000s recession. The firm provides consulting services, primarily to government agencies. The owners have brought the business to sales of about $10.5 million in 2012, but revenues declined following that peak year because of cutbacks in government spending and founder Jennifer Madison’s detachment from the business. Even though they recognize that it may not be an ideal time to sell, they are tired of running the business and want to sell now, as long as they can pay off their debts. Research methodology This case was researched through multiple interviews with Mark and Jennifer, who provided all of the financial data and background. All financial statements given in the case provide actual CS numbers. The name of the company and the names of the owners have been changed, at their request to disguise the company. At the time this case was written, the owners were in negotiation with a potential bidder, and did not want their names or their company name to be used. Market information and information about comparable companies was researched using publicly available financial data bases. Relevant courses and levels This case has the potential to be used in a variety of classes, depending on what the instructor wishes to emphasize. The author uses the case as a valuation case in a corporate finance class (suitable for undergraduates or MBAs), allowing students practice in discounted cash flow valuation and comparable multiples valuation. It could be used in an investments class which teaches business valuation, particularly in teaching valuation using market multiples. The case could be used in an entrepreneurial finance class. The author uses this case to illustrate the difficulties of business valuation with messy (but real) data. Theoretical bases This case explores small business valuation and exit strategies for founders. Students can put themselves in the position of small business owners who are ready to exit. Students should value the firm using discounted cash flow and multiples valuation, which includes making assumptions about the future growth of the firm. While there is likely to be reasonable agreement on the “as is” valuation, there may be great variation concerning the assumptions and valuations of the company as it could be. Students can discuss (and implement) adjustments made when using large company comparables to value a much smaller company.

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