How much did the return of rural migrant labor affect China's national economy?

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-54
Author(s):  
Wei Jia ◽  
Xiaoyun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Migrant Labor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rural Migrant ◽  
The Impact ◽  
China’S Economy

Purpose – What this paper aims to tackle is how much did the return of rural migrant labor during the financial crisis affect China's GDP and the growth rate of the national economy. Design/methodology/approach – This paper constructs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and uses data of China's 2007 Input-Output Table to analyze the impact of the return of rural migrant labor on China's economy during the financial crisis. Findings – The results show that the return of rural migrant labor during the financial crisis had substantial impacts on China's economy. The national GDP decreased by about 0.499-1.463 percent, mainly due to the number of rural labor who migrated from the non-agricultural sector to agriculture. Of the major sectors of economy, the manufacturing, construction and other services sectors were the most affected. Originality/value – This paper assesses the impacts of return of rural migrant labor during the financial crisis on China's GDP and the growth rate of the national economy.

scholarly journals The direct and indirect effect of cash transfers: the case of Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 793-807
Author(s):  
Arief Anshory Yusuf
Keyword(s):  
National Economy ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Cash Transfers ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Poverty And Inequality ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of unconditional cash transfers in Indonesia on poverty and inequality while, unlike much of the previous literature on the welfare impact of such transfers, acknowledging that they will have both a direct effect and an economy-wide effect on the national economy. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used is a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Indonesian economy. The unique feature of this model, which is very relevant in this study, is the disaggregation of households by expenditure classes; this allows for precise estimation of the distributional impact and poverty incidence. Findings The results suggest that, despite a large reduction in poverty, particularly in rural areas, such transfers reduce the Indonesian GDP, especially if domestically financed through increasing the value added tax of all commodities. However, the GDP reduction can be reduced by approximately half when cash transfers are financed by reducing the distortionary fuel subsidy. Moreover, cash transfers financed by reducing the fuel subsidy also reduce inequality by much more than otherwise. Various extents of the distribution of the transfers are compared, from giving them to the poorest 10 percent to distributing them equally to all households. The benefit of the transfers, in terms of reduced poverty and inequality, is found to be smaller when the author extends the beneficiaries toward the non-poor, although the economy-wide cost, in terms of the reduced GDP, is smaller. Research limitations/implications The CGE model used in this model is a comparative-static model that does not explicitly model the time dimension, i.e. how the impact of the transfers evolves over time. This is important if we want to know the timing of the transfers and how and when they are translated into impacts. Practical implications To reduce the contractionary effect of cash transfers program, government/policy makers should carefully look for appropriate financing such as from removing subsidy with pre-existing distortions like fuel subsidies. Social implications Government needs to carefully design cash transfers to minimize the negative indirect (economy-wide) implication for the national economy and to make sure that the transfers reach the targeted beneficiaries. Originality/value Few previous studies have acknowledged the indirect economy-wide effect in analyzing the impact of cash transfers. To the author’s knowledge, this has never been done before for Indonesia. Unlike previous studies, this paper is unique as it contains sensitivity analysis on how transfers can be mistargeted and reach the non-poor and looks at the implications not only for poverty and inequality but also for the rest of the economy.

The effect of intangible assets on sustainable growth and firm value – Evidence on intellectual capital investment in companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Catalin Ionita ◽  
Elena Dinu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Intellectual Capital ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Intangible Assets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainable Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe present study investigates the connection between company investments in intellectual capital (IC) and how they translate into financial value. The aim is to test the impact of intangible assets on the firm value and its sustainable growth.Design/methodology/approachThe research employs computation models to determine the sustainable growth rate (SGR) and the firm value (FV), and by using the ordinary least squares (OLS) model through a linear regression assesses the relationship between the dependent variables and expenditures on intangibles like R&D, IT programs and patents. A sample of 42 companies has been selected out of the 78 listed at Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE), based on the appropriateness of the information disclosed in the financial reports for the period 2016–2019.FindingsThe results show that intangibles classified as innovative competences (R&D and Patents) do not have a positive impact on SGR and FV in listed companies from Romania. Moreover, R&D has a negative and significant effect on FV, while IT Programs have a positive and significant impact on FV, but not on the SGR. Variables categorised as economic competencies (Brands, Shares held in associates and jointly controlled entities) and firm structure-specific variables (Leverage, Firm Performance) seem to have a significant effect on SGR and FV. Shares held in associates and jointly controlled entities is the variable that can have the biggest impact when it comes to FV for companies listed at BSE.Research limitations/implicationsDue to non-disclosure of specific information by some companies, or lack of investments in intangibles the sample had to be reduced and does not cover all listed companies.Practical implicationsCompanies listed on the Regulated Market from the Bucharest Stock Exchange should maintain their scale of liabilities at a reasonable level when financing intangible assets in order to ensure corporate long-term and sustainable development. Also, these companies should maintain awareness about the importance of intangible assets and invest more in specific sub-components, in order to sustain competitive advantage. Recognizing the roles of intangibles, managers need to develop strategies to invest in profitable intangibles by reasonably allocating their limited resources, in order to achieve sustainable growth and increase company success.Originality/valueStudies concerning the relation between investments in intangibles and sustainable growth rate and firm value of listed Romanian companies are very scarce. This paper reveals new research, never before undertaken, concerning expenditures on intangibles by Romanian companies and the valuation of such investments on Bucharest Stock Exchange.

The impact of blacklists on external deposits: one size does not fit all

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Jonsson ◽  
Jan Pettersson ◽  
Christian Nils Larson ◽  
Nir Artzi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Comparable Data ◽  
Patriot Act ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Probable Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Country Specific

Purpose This study aims to measure the impact of the Non-Cooperative Countries and Territories, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and US PATRIOT Act Section 311 blacklists on external deposits from blacklisted jurisdictions into BIS reporting countries in 1996–2008, a period when anti-money laundering-related actions were consistently less stringent than post-2010, to see whether they had an effect even absent the threat of sizable financial fines. Design/methodology/approach The study uses descriptive statistics and bivariate and multivariate regressions to analyze the probable impact from blacklists on non-bank external deposits. The country sample is divided into offshore financial centers (OFCs) and non-OFCs and includes 158 non-listed countries. The impact of the blacklists is tested both jointly and individually for the respective blacklists. Findings The authors find mixed impact from jurisdictions being blacklisted on the growth rate of stocks of deposits into BIS reporting countries. Effects are often zero, negative in several cases and positive in some cases. This is consistent with the “stigma effect” and the “stigma paradox” in the literature. An overall impact from blacklisting is difficult to discern. Different blacklists had different effects, and the same blacklist impacted countries differently, illustrating the importance of disaggregating the analysis by individual countries. Research limitations/implications Interpretation of these data is limited by the absence of comparable data on non-resident deposits in blacklisted jurisdictions. Practical implications The impact of a blacklist depends in part on the structure of the listed jurisdictions’ economies, implying that country-specific sanctions may be more effective than blacklists. Originality/value This is one of the very few papers to date to rigorously test the impact of blacklists on external deposits.

The effect of the financial crisis on audit quality: European evidence

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria I. Kyriakou
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Audit Quality ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Accounting Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Big Four

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of the recent financial crisis on audit quality by analysing discretionary accruals. Design/methodology/approach This study considers a sample of German, French, Italian and Spanish non-financial firms from 2005 to 2013 to investigate the auditor’s independence. It uses a cross-sectional and time-series ordinary least squares regression model to control for other predictors of the auditor’s independence when the financial crisis produces a decrease in audit quality. Findings The proportion of the non-financial firms having lower audit quality was higher during the financial crisis. In addition, during the crisis auditors were less likely to provide a higher audit quality for these non-financial firms. The level of audit quality returned to normal levels during the post-crisis years when the crisis had ceased. Originality/value These findings contribute to the literature on the impact of economic and financial changes on audit quality. In addition, this research finds that the Big Four accounting firms provide a higher audit quality in different circumstances from non-Big Four accounting firms, and that audit quality decreased during the crisis and returned to normal in the post-crisis period.

Determinants of opportunism in Uganda’s manufacturing sector:a comparison of two sectors

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Eyaa ◽  
Ramaswami Sridharan ◽  
Suzanne Ryan
Keyword(s):  
Information Sharing ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Environmental Uncertainty ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Power Asymmetry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Manufacturing Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a conceptual model investigating the impact of three constructs, environmental uncertainty, power asymmetry and information sharing on opportunism engagement in exchange relationships. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected from procurement or sales managers of 99 manufacturing firms in Kampala, Uganda’s capital using a cross-sectional survey. Hypotheses were tested in both the agricultural and non-agricultural manufacturing sectors using multiple regression runs in the SPSS software. Findings Environmental uncertainty increases opportunism in the agricultural sector whilst power asymmetry increases opportunism in the non-agricultural sector. Across both sectors, information sharing does not have a significant impact on opportunism. Originality/value This paper contributes to a deeper understanding of opportunism in a developing country context by highlighting the contextual factors within the agricultural and non-agricultural manufacturing sectors that influence opportunism engagement under conditions of environmental uncertainty, power asymmetry and information sharing. This paper presents implications for practice and policy to minimise opportunism with the goal of enhancing the participation of Ugandan manufacturing firms in global supply chains.

Bank mergers and acquisitions in Greece: the financial crisis and its effect on shareholder wealth

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 273-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Tampakoudis ◽  
Michail Nerantzidis ◽  
Demetres Subeniotis ◽  
Apostolos Soutsas ◽  
Nikolaos Kiosses
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Shareholder Wealth ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Bank Mergers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the wealth implications of bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the unique Greek setting given the triple crisis phenomenon – banking, sovereign debt and economic crises – that prevailed after the global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach The study examines bank M&As and bank transactions over the period from 1997 to 2018, as well as government-assisted M&As during the crisis. The wealth effects of bank M&As are assessed using both univariate and multivariate frameworks. Findings Findings show a neutral crisis effect on the valuation of M&As upon their announcement. However, the authors provide conclusive evidence that M&A completions are value-destroying events for acquiring banks during the crisis, far worse than in the pre-crisis period. Greek banks also fail to create value from government-assisted mergers. The results suggest that the financial stability and the prevention of further deepening of the Greek crisis with possible contagion effects were achieved at the expense of shareholders and taxpayers. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of the Greek triple crisis on the wealth effects of bank M&As and bank transactions. Also, the study provides first evidence with regard to the economic impact of government-assisted M&As in the European context.

Does macroeconomic uncertainty really matter in predicting stock market behavior? A comparative study on China and USA

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghulam Abbas ◽  
Shouyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Macroeconomic Risk ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe study aims to analyze the interaction between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market return and volatility for China and USA and tries to draw some invaluable inferences for the investors, portfolio managers and policy analysts.Design/methodology/approachEmpirically the study uses GARCH family models to capture the time-varying volatility of stock market and macroeconomic risk factors by using monthly data ranging from 1995:M7 to 2018:M6. Then, these volatility series are further used in the multivariate VAR model to analyze the feedback interaction between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors for China and USA. The study also incorporates the impact of Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 by using dummy variables in the GARCH model analysis.FindingsThe empirical results of GARCH models indicate volatility persistence in the stock markets and the macroeconomic variables of both countries. The study finds relatively weak and inconsistent unidirectional causality for China mainly running from the stock market to the macroeconomic variables; however, the volatility spillover transmission reciprocates when the impact of Asian financial crisis and Global financial crisis is incorporated. For USA, the contemporaneous relationship between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors is quite strong and bidirectional both at first and second moment level.Originality/valueThis study investigates the interaction between stock market and macroeconomic uncertainty for China and USA. The researchers believe that none of the prior studies has made such rigorous comparison of two of the big and diverse economies (China and USA) which are quite contrasting in terms of political, economic and social background. Therefore, this study also tries to test the presumed conception that macroeconomic uncertainty in China may have different impact on the stock market return and volatility than in USA.

Do market size and financial development indicators affect human capital of select south Asian economies?

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 887-903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narayan Sethi ◽  
Bikash Ranjan Mishra ◽  
Padmaja Bhujabal
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Market Size ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether market size and its growth rate, along with financial development indicators, affect human capital in selected south Asian economies over the time period from 1984 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach The stationarity of the variables are checked by LLC, IPS, ADF and Phillips–Perron panel unit-root tests. Pedroni’s and Kao’s panel co-integration approaches are employed to examine the long-run relationship among the variables. To estimate the coefficients of co-integrating vectors, both PDOLS and FMOLS techniques are used. The short-term and long-run causalities are examined by panel granger causality. Findings From the empirical results, the authors found that both the market size and financial development play an important role in the development of human capital in the selected south Asian economies. It is evident that a large market size and faster degree of financial development in the selected countries result in better human capital formation. Originality/value There are a number of studies on the impact of financial development indicators on human capital and economic growth, but there is hardly any study that considers market size and its growth rate along with financial development indicators with human capital in the context of south Asian economies. The study fills this research gap.

The impact of guaranteed bailout assistance on bank loan overstatement

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-210
Author(s):  
Alejandro Hazera ◽  
Carmen Quirvan ◽  
Salvador Marin-Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the basic binomial option pricing model (BOPM) might be used by regulators to help formulate rules, prior to financial crisis, that help prevent loan overstatement by banks in emerging market economies undergoing financial crises. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on the theory of soft budget constraints (SBC) to construct a simple model in which banks overstate loans to minimize losses. The model is used to illustrate how guarantees of bailout assistance (BA) (to banks) by crisis stricken countries’ financial authorities may encourage banks to overstate loans and delay the implementation of IFRS for loan valuation. However, the model also illustrates how promises of BA may be depicted as binomial put options which provide banks with the option of either: reporting loan values on poor projects accurately and receiving the loans’ liquidation values; or, overstating loans and receiving the guaranteed BA. An illustration is also provided of how authorities may use this representation to help minimize bank loan overstatement in periods of financial crisis. In order to provide an illustration of how the option value of binomial assistance may evolve during a financial crisis, the model is generalized to the Mexican financial crisis of the late 1990s. During this period, Mexican authorities’ guarantees of BA to the nation’s largest banks encouraged those institutions to overstate loans and delay the implementation of (previously adopted) international “best practices” based loan valuation standards. Findings – Application of the model to the Mexican financial crisis provides evidence that, in spite of Mexico’s “official” 1997 adoption of international “best accounting practices” for banks, “iron clad” guarantees of BA by the country’s financial authorities to Mexico’s largest banks provided those institutions with an incentive to knowingly overstate loans in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Research limitations/implications – The model is compared against only one country in which the BA was directly infused into banks’ loan portfolios. Thus, as conceived, it is directly applicable to crisis countries in which the bailout took this form. However, the many quantitative variations of SBC models as well as recent studies which have applied the binomial model to other forms of bailout (e.g. direct purchases of bank shares by authorities) suggest that the model could be modified to accommodate different bailout scenarios. Practical implications – The model and application show that guaranteed BA can be viewed as a put option and that ex-ante regulatory policies based on the correct valuation of the BA as a binomial option might prevent banks from overstating loans. Social implications – Use of the binomial or similar approaches to valuing BA may help regulators to determine the level of BA that will not encourage banks to overstate the value of their loans. Originality/value – Recent research has used the BOPM to value, on an ex-post basis, the BA which appears on the balance sheet of institutions which have been rescued. However, little research has advocated the use of this type of model to help prevent, on an ex-ante basis, the overstatement of loans on poor projects.

scholarly journals The Basel accords, capital reserves, and agricultural lending

2019 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary W. Brester ◽  
Myles J. Watts
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Reserve Requirements ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Capital Reserves

Purpose The safety and soundness of financial institutions has become a leading worldwide issue because of the recent global financial crisis. Historically, financial crises have occurred approximately every 20 years. The worst financial crisis in the last 75 years occurred in 2008–2009. US regulatory efforts with respect to capital reserve requirements are likely to have several unintended consequences for the agricultural lending sector—especially for smaller, less-diversified (and often, rural agricultural) lenders. The paper discusses these issues. Design/methodology/approach Simulation models and value-at-risk (VaR) criteria are used to evaluate the impact of capital reserve requirements on lending return on equity. In addition, simulations are used to calculate the effects of loan numbers and portfolio diversification on capital reserve requirements. Findings This paper illustrates that increasing capital reserve requirements reduces lending return on equity. Furthermore, increases in the number of loans and portfolio diversification reduce capital reserve requirements. Research limitations/implications The simulation methods are a simplification of complex lending practices and VaR calculations. Lenders use these and other procedures for managing capital reserves than those modeled in this paper. Practical implications Smaller lending institutions will be pressured to increase loan sector diversification. In addition, traditional agricultural lenders will likely be under increased pressure to diversify portfolios. Because agricultural loan losses have relatively low correlations with other sectors, traditional agricultural lenders can expect increased competition for agricultural loans from non-traditional agricultural lenders. Originality/value This paper is novel in that the authors illustrate how lender capital requirements change in response to loan payment correlations both within and across lending sectors.

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