Corona, command and capitalism

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Michael Ward
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Good ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
Risk Pricing

Learning outcomes The case presents a lot of information, directly and via references and Web-based links, about the economic consequences of the virus. Several themes are evident: As an opening theory-base, the decades-long stakeholder versus shareholder debate is invoked – but does this extend beyond “stakeholders” to the “public good”? There are contexts (generally wars) in which governments are empowered to instruct private companies to engage in the public good – but how far should/must they voluntarily go? The underlying macro-economic issue is: where will we get the capital? Central banks have not recovered from the 2008 global financial crisis and have limited “ammunition” to address the anticipated economic problems introduced by the virus. The case presents data on selected financial metrics (interest rates, debt levels, risk pricing, etc.) and outlines the conventional stimulatory steps used: lowering short-term rates (monetary policy) and investment in assets (fiscal policy) and the less-conventional Quantitative Easing “QE”. Case overview/synopsis The coronavirus appears to herald a devastating blow to lives and to the world economy – its impact is yet unknown, but likely to be comparable to war and pestilence of biblical proportion. This case focuses on the possible economic trajectories as a consequence of the virus, with emphasis on bailing-out (restructuring) struggling companies and restoring jobs. Within the framework of a world desperately in need of capital, it raises questions about accountability and responsibility. Should retrenched workers in restaurants, banks and airlines feel the consequences of their poor career choices? Must shareholders (read pensioners) shoulder losses to support the public good? Ought governments bail-out whole industries – using tax-payer money? Or do we allow central banks to conjure-up billions and hope for the best? The case does not attempt to provide answers to these questions but presents several vignettes and offers a context in which participants can debate the merits of these problems. Complexity academic level MBA and Exec-ed. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS: 1 Accounting and Finance.

Making money for COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Michael Ward
Keyword(s):  
Economic History ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiat Money ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
War Effort ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Government

Learning outcomes The case describes the origins of money, touching on the gold standard, the Fed’s 1942 purchase of US debt to fund the “war effort”, Bretton Woods (1944), Nixon’s 1971 pulling the currency peg and descent of money from gold to fiat. It also touches on theories of inflation and deflation, quantitative easing (QE) post the 2008 crisis and the “swamp” of (unorthodox) modern monetary theory (MMT). Aside from providing a brief history of monetary policy and economics, the case study seeks to widen students’ understanding of key economic issues including: fiat money, QE, government funding mechanisms, taxation, economic stimulation, inflation/deflation – and of course, the need for an ombudsman to limit excess. Case overview/synopsis In May 2020, South Africa’s deputy finance minister David Masondo announced that he would support the South African Reserve Bank’s lending to the government. This statement followed President Ramaposa’s earlier announcement of a R500bn COVID-19 stimulus package. The case explores the economic history of money, from barter to gold to cryptos. The case examines the origins of central banks’ printing of money, initially to support the Second World War effort and more recently the 2008 global financial crisis and now the COVID-19 crisis. In particular, the case raises the question of central bank independence – “democratically elected governments always need money, is it appropriate for central banks provide it? And are there limits?” Complexity academic level MBA and Executive Education Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS: 1 Accounting and Finance.

Digital currencies enhance 21st century monetary tools

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Digital Currency ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Severe Recession

Subject From fiat to digital currencies. Significance With the use of cash dwindling in the advanced economies, central banks are losing their only direct monetary connection to the public. At the same time, monetary policy could face meaningful limits in stimulating growth if a severe recession strikes the advanced economies as policy interest rates are already close to zero. Impacts Tech advances, combined with downgraded long-term growth, price and interest rate forecasts, draw attention to new monetary policy tools. Central bank digital currencies would have a central custodian to coordinate them, overcoming a key ‘stateless’ cryptocurrency weakness. A digital currency gives central banks a way to reflate the economy and support certain households, but there may be political obstacles.

scholarly journals South Africa’s economic response to monetary policy uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Central Bankers

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a sign restricted SVAR with an endogenous feedback of stochastic volatility to evaluate the sign and size of uncertainty shocks. The authors use a nonlinear DSGE model to gain deeper insights about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty. Findings The authors show that monetary policy volatility is high and constant. Both inflation and interest rates decline in response to uncertainty. Output rebounds quickly after a contemporaneous decrease. The DSGE model shows that the size of the uncertainty shock matters – high uncertainty can lead to a severe contraction in output, inflation and interest rates. Research limitations/implications The authors model only a few variables in the SVAR – thus missing perhaps other possible channels of shock transmission. Practical implications There is a lesson for monetary policy: monetary policy uncertainty, in isolation from general macroeconomic uncertainty, often creates unintended adverse consequences and can perpetuate a weak economic environment. The tasks of central bankers are incredibly difficult. Their models project output and inflation with relatively large uncertainty based on many shocks emanating from various sources. It matters how central bankers react to these expectations and how they communicate the underlying risks associated with setting interest rates. Originality/value This is the first study that looks into monetary policy uncertainty into South Africa using a stochastic volatility model and a nonlinear DSGE model. The results should be very useful for the Central Bank as it highlights how uncertainty, that they create, can have adverse economic consequences.

scholarly journals Confidence in future monetary policy as a way to overcome the liquidity trap

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-135
Author(s):  
Olga Kuznetsova ◽  
Sergey Merzlyakov ◽  
Sergey Pekarski
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Consistency ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has changed the landscape for monetary policy. Many central banks in developed economies had to employ various unconventional policy tools to overcome a liquidity trap. These included large-scale asset purchase programs, forward guidance and negative interest rate policies. While recently, some central banks were able to return to conventional monetary policy, for many countries the effectiveness of unconventional policies remains an issue. In this paper we assess diverse practices of unconventional monetary policy with a particular focus on expectations and time consistency. The principal aspect of successful policy in terms of overcoming a liquidity trap is the confidence that interest rates will remain low for a prolonged period. However, forming such expectations faces the problem of time inconsistency of optimal policy. We discuss some directions to solve this problem.

scholarly journals Negative Interest Rate Risk. Atavism or Normalization of Central Banks’ Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 89-116
Author(s):  
Irena Pyka ◽  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

In the face of the global financial crisis, central banks have used unconventional monetary policy instruments. Firstly, they implemented the interest rate policy, lowering base interest rates to a very low (almost zero) level. However, in the following years they did not undertake normalizing activities. The macroeconomic environment required further initiatives. For the first time in history, central banks have adopted Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). The main aim of the study is to explore the risk accompanying the negative interest rate policy, aiming at identifying channels and consequences of its impact on the economy. The study verifies the research hypothesis stating that the risk of negative interest rates, so far unrecognized in Theory of Interest Rate, is a consequence of low effectiveness of monetary policy normalization and may adopt systemic nature, by influencing – through different channels – the financial stability and growth dynamics of the modern world economy.

scholarly journals An Investigation into the Fundamental Drivers of Pricing of Residential Mortgage Products – A Risk Pricing Viewpoint

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 60-72
Author(s):  
Harry M Karamujic
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exact Science ◽  
Residential Mortgage ◽  
Risk Pricing ◽  
Price Risks ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Underlying Theme

Residential mortgage products (also known as home loans) pricing has been long understood to be something of a ‘dark art’, requiring judgment and experience, rather than being an exact science. In the last decade, a lot has changed in this field and more and more lenders, primarily the larger lenders, are increasingly looking to make their pricing as exact as possible. Even so, inadequate pricing of residential mortgage products (in particular its substandard risk pricing) has been seen as one of major causes of the global financial crisis (GFC) and subsequent spectacular banking collapses. The underlying theme of the paper is to exhibit how contemporary lenders, in practice, price their residential mortgage products. While discussing elements of the pricing calculation particular attention was given to the exposition of how contemporary lenders price risks involved in providing home loans. Because of the importance of Basel capital accords to how financial institutions assess and quantify their risks, the paper provides an overview of Basel capital accords. The author envisages that the paper will (i) help enhance comprehension of the underlying elements of the pricing calculation and the ways in which these elements relate to each other, (ii) scrutinize how contemporary lenders identify and quantify risks and (iii) improve consciousness of future changes in interest rates

scholarly journals Matching in the Kolm triangle: interiority and participation constraints of matching equilibria

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1039-1050
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Buchholz ◽  
Richard Cornes ◽  
Dirk Rübbelke
Keyword(s):  
Public Good ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Income Distributions ◽  
Good Economy ◽  
Triangle Method ◽  
Matching Mechanism ◽  
Good Provision ◽  
The One

PurposeIn this paper we show how the Kolm triangle method, which is a standard tool for visualizing allocations in a public good economy, can also be used to provide a diagrammatical exposition of matching mechanisms and their effects on public good supply and welfare. In particular, we describe, on the one hand, for which income distributions interior matching equilibria result, and on the other hand, for which income distributions the agents voluntarily participate in a matching mechanism. As a novel result, we especially show that the “participation zone” is larger than the “interiority zone”Design/methodology/approachWe employ the Kolm triangle approach, which has – compared to most other graphical methods for representing allocations in a public good economy – the advantage that it allows for showing the aggregate budget constraint, the levels of considered agents' private consumption, and the level of public good supply directly in the same diagram.FindingsThe Kolm triangle method can be used to visualize important effects of matching in an elegant way, so basically the increase of public good supply through matching. The interiority of matching depends on the income distribution and especially, on how the “interiority zone” is shrinking when the matching rate increases. Moreover, we were able to delimit the “participation zone” in the Kolm triangle. An important and novel insight is that the participation zone is larger than the interiority zone, which means that also corner matching equilibria in which only one agent makes a positive flat contribution to the public good may make both considered agents better off.Research limitations/implicationsCorner matching equilibria in which only one agent makes a positive flat contribution to the public good may improve all considered agents' welfare. How this welfare effect can be generalized to the case of different utility functions and matching rates will be an issue of future research.Practical implicationsThe examined matching mechanism finds application in many policy fields where public good undersupply is pending. International climate policy is one of these fields of application, for example.Originality/valueThe Kolm triangle method has been particularly helpful to describe the Nash equilibrium in the case of non-cooperative public good provision and to compare this outcome with Pareto efficient public good allocations. Furthermore, the Kolm triangle approach facilitates the analysis of mechanisms for attaining an efficient public good allocation like the Lindahl equilibrium as well as the study of preconditions and limitations faced by such mechanisms. An important and novel insight of our study is that the participation zone is larger than the interiority zone.

Low interest rate environment: inventory management in Finland and Baltic states

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli-Pekka Hilmola ◽  
Weidong Li ◽  
Andres Tolli
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Inventory Management ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Environment

PurposeFor decades, it was emphasized that manufacturing and trading companies should aim to be lean with very small inventories. However, in the recent decade, time-significant change has taken place as nearly all of the “old west” countries have now low interest rates. Holding inventories have been beneficial for the sake of customer service and for achieving savings in transportation and fixed ordering costs.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, inventory management change is examined in publicly traded manufacturing and trade companies of Finland and three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) during the years 2010–2018.FindingsInventory efficiency has been leveled off or falling in these countries and mostly declining development has concerned small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It is also found that inventory efficiency is in general lower in SMEs than in larger companies. Two companies sustaining in inventory efficiency are used as an example that lean has still significance, and higher inventories as well as lower inventory efficiency should not be the objective. Two companies show exemplary financial performance as well as shareholder value creation.Research limitations/implicationsWork concerns only four smaller countries, and this limits its generalization power. Research is one illustration what happens to private sector companies under low interest rate policies.Practical implicationsContinuous improvement of inventory efficiency becomes questionable in the light of current research and the low interest rate environment.Originality/valueThis is one of the seminal studies from inventory efficiency as the global financial crisis taken place in 2008–2009 and there is the implementation of low interest rates.

Theoretical and trustees’ perspectives on the establishment of an Islamic social (Waqf) bank

Humanomics ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Tahir Sabit Haji Mohammad
Keyword(s):  
Public Good ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Given ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
International Social ◽  
Specific Country

Purpose – This paper aims to present an alternative to current banking systems. The purpose of the paper is the optimisation of the concept of cash waqf and its management in the framework of a waqf bank and its viability. Design/methodology/approach – The study is doctrinal and empirical. Several assumptions concerning the structure and operation of the bank are made, surveyed and descriptively analysed. Findings – The concept of cash waqf could be used for the operation of a waqf bank. There was a tendency among the given group of practitioners towards a corporate international social bank, capitalised by the waqf and non-waqf assets, sought after from the public and private sectors, as well as the Muslims and non-Muslims. Research limitations/implications – Assumptions are basic. Empirical findings are based on the perspective of waqf trustees. Other stakeholders’ perspectives need further research. Practical implications – The study is expected to persuade for, and assist in the establishment of a waqf bank. Social implications – This paper could contribute to the effectiveness of waqf institutions in their delivery of public good to the poor and society. These implications are not restricted to a specific country. Charities and the poor of any society may benefit from this study if the idea of total social banking is upheld. Originality/value – This study is the first to address the structure and operation of a waqf bank empirically.

Return and co-movement of major public real estate markets during global financial crisis

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 489-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hiang Liow ◽  
Shao Yue Angela
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Public ◽  
Movement Dynamics ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility spectral of five major public real estate markets, namely, the USA, the UK, Japan (JP), Hong Kong (HK), and Singapore (SG), during the pre- and post-global financial crisis (GFC) periods. Design/methodology/approach First, univariate spectral analysis is concerned with discovering price cycles for the respective real estate markets. Second, bivariate cross-spectral analysis seeks to uncover whether any two real estate price series share common cycles with regard to their relative magnitudes and lead-lag patterns of the cyclical variations. Finally, to test the contagion effects, the authors estimate the exact percentage change in co-spectral density (cyclical covariance) due to high frequencies (short run) after the GFC. Findings The authors find that whilst none of the public real estate markets examined are spared from the crisis, the three Asian markets were less severely affected by the GFC and were accompanied by a reversal in volatility increase three years post-global financial crisis. Additionally, the public real estate markets studied have become more cyclically linked in recent years. This is particularly true at longer frequencies. Finally, these increased cyclical co-movements measure the outcomes of contagion and indicate fairly strong contagious effects between the public real estate markets examined due to the crisis. Research limitations/implications The implication of this research is that benefits to investors from international real estate diversification may not be as great during the present time compared to previous periods because national public real estate markets have become more correlated. Nevertheless, the findings do not imply the complete absence of diversification benefits. This is because although cyclical correlations increase in the short run, many of the correlation values are still between low and moderate range, indicating that some diversification benefits may still be realized. Practical implications Given the significant market share and the highest levels of securitization in Asia-Pacific markets including JP, HK/China, and SG, this cyclical research including major public real estate markets has practical implications for ongoing international real estate investment strategies, particularly for the USA/UK and Asian portfolio managers. Originality/value This paper contributes to the limited research on the cyclical return and co-movement dynamics among major public real estate markets during financial/economic crisis in international finance. Moreover, the frequency-domain analysis conducted in this paper adds to better understanding regarding the impact of GFC on the cyclical return volatility and co-movement dynamics of major developed public real estate markets in international investing.

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