Return and co-movement of major public real estate markets during global financial crisis

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 489-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hiang Liow ◽  
Shao Yue Angela
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Public ◽  
Movement Dynamics ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility spectral of five major public real estate markets, namely, the USA, the UK, Japan (JP), Hong Kong (HK), and Singapore (SG), during the pre- and post-global financial crisis (GFC) periods. Design/methodology/approach First, univariate spectral analysis is concerned with discovering price cycles for the respective real estate markets. Second, bivariate cross-spectral analysis seeks to uncover whether any two real estate price series share common cycles with regard to their relative magnitudes and lead-lag patterns of the cyclical variations. Finally, to test the contagion effects, the authors estimate the exact percentage change in co-spectral density (cyclical covariance) due to high frequencies (short run) after the GFC. Findings The authors find that whilst none of the public real estate markets examined are spared from the crisis, the three Asian markets were less severely affected by the GFC and were accompanied by a reversal in volatility increase three years post-global financial crisis. Additionally, the public real estate markets studied have become more cyclically linked in recent years. This is particularly true at longer frequencies. Finally, these increased cyclical co-movements measure the outcomes of contagion and indicate fairly strong contagious effects between the public real estate markets examined due to the crisis. Research limitations/implications The implication of this research is that benefits to investors from international real estate diversification may not be as great during the present time compared to previous periods because national public real estate markets have become more correlated. Nevertheless, the findings do not imply the complete absence of diversification benefits. This is because although cyclical correlations increase in the short run, many of the correlation values are still between low and moderate range, indicating that some diversification benefits may still be realized. Practical implications Given the significant market share and the highest levels of securitization in Asia-Pacific markets including JP, HK/China, and SG, this cyclical research including major public real estate markets has practical implications for ongoing international real estate investment strategies, particularly for the USA/UK and Asian portfolio managers. Originality/value This paper contributes to the limited research on the cyclical return and co-movement dynamics among major public real estate markets during financial/economic crisis in international finance. Moreover, the frequency-domain analysis conducted in this paper adds to better understanding regarding the impact of GFC on the cyclical return volatility and co-movement dynamics of major developed public real estate markets in international investing.

Global financial crisis and cyclical co-movements of Asian financial markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 465-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
KimHiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Asset Classes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cross-spectra of stock, real estate and bond of ten selected Asian economies in the pre- and post-global financial crisis periods to detect whether there is greater cyclical co-movement post-financial crisis, and whether any observed increased co-movement measures the outcomes of contagion or integration. Design/methodology/approach – Co-spectral approach is the proper econometric tool to deliver economic insight for this research. Findings – Results indicate that Asian stock markets, and to a lesser degree, bond and real estate markets are more correlated post-financial crisis. Similarly, Asian financial markets have experienced increased co-movements with the US financial markets post-financial crisis. Moreover, these observed increased co-movements measure the outcomes of contagion in some cases of within-asset and cross-asset classes, as well as for some cross-US-Asian asset factor relationships along the high-frequency components of between two and four weeks. The stock markets are the most contagious, followed by the real estate markets and bond markets. Research limitations/implications – The results provide short-term investors with additional co-movement information at higher frequencies in order to identify short-term fluctuations of different asset classes. The empirical study also underscores the role of Asian real estate in investment portfolios in a mixed real estate, stock and bond context from a frequency domain perspective. Practical implications – The practical implication of this research is that benefits to investors from international diversification may not be as great during the present time compared to previous periods because financial/asset market movements have become more correlated. However, it does not imply the complete absence of diversification benefits. This is because although cyclical correlations increase in the short run, many of the values are still between low and moderate range, indicating that some diversification benefits may still be realized. Originality/value – In advancing the body of knowledge in international financial markets, this research is probably the first study to consider a multi-asset class portfolio context that includes stock, real estate and bond across the ten Asian economies and the USA in a single study. The frequency domain analysis conducted in this paper adds to the understanding of real estate, stock and bond market co-movement, integration and contagion dynamics, as well as the Asian cross-asset factor and US-Asian asset factor relationships in global mixed-investing environment.

Flight to quality?

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franz Fuerst ◽  
Patrick McAllister ◽  
Petros Sivitanides
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Hedonic Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Class A ◽  
Flight To Quality ◽  
Price Spread

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Shapeholders: managing them as allies, partners and significant constituents

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 41-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleksiy Osiyevskyy ◽  
Vladyslav Biloshapka
Keyword(s):  
Business Models ◽  
Social Activism ◽  
Business Success ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Building Relationships ◽  
The Public ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Common Interests ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The authors review the concept of building relationships with Shapeholders,: a broad group of players that have no financial stake in the company yet can substantively influence it. The process for doing this is the subject of a new book by Mark Kennedy, Shapeholders: Business success in the age of social activism. Design/methodology/approach The authors examine Mark Kennedy’s framework for managing the firm’s shapeholders, a model composed of seven basic steps (7A’s): Align with a purpose, Anticipate, Assess, Avert, Acquiesce, Advance common interests, and Assemble to win. Findings Managing corporate reputation in alliance with enlightened shapeholders is a potential defense against self-aggrandizing schemes to wantonly maximize shareholder value in the short run. Practical implications Managing shapeholders is part of the messy democratic process that works when power is apportioned fairly among those affected by a firm’s decisions, and this process underpins the winning business models of true market leaders. Social implications Stakeholders previously discredited as mere “mosquitos” have gained new power, particularly when their legitimate concerns and unfair treatment resonate with the interests of a significant segment of the public and influential shapeholders. Originality/value Shapeholders can create enormous opportunities for smart managers capable of effectively engaging with them.

A post-global financial crisis (GFC) framework for strategic planning, assessment and management decision making for US sustainable commercial real estate

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 589-618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pernille Hoy Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainability Initiatives

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand both the facts and the values associated with the breadth of issues, and the principles related to sustainable real estate for institutional investors. Sustainable real estate is a growing sector within the commercial real estate industry, and yet, the decision-making practices of institutional investors related to sustainability are still not well understood. In an effort to fill that gap, this research investigates the post-global financial crisis (GFC) motivations driving the implementation of sustainability initiatives, the implementation strategies used, and the predominant eco-indicators and measures used by institutional investors. Design/methodology/approach This paper presents the results of a three-round modified Delphi study conducted in the USA in 2011-2012 investigating the nature of performance measurements and reporting requirements in sustainable commercial real estate and their impact on the real estate decision-making process used by institutional investors. Two rounds of in-depth interviews were conducted with 14 expert panelists. An e-questionnaire was used in the third round to verify qualitative findings. Findings The key industry drivers and performance indicators influencing institutional investor decision making were associated with risk management of assets and whether initiatives can improve competitive market advantage. Industry leaders advocate for simple key performance indicators, which is in contrast to the literature which argues for the need to adopt common criteria and metrics. Key barriers to the adoption of sustainability initiatives are discussed and a decision framework is presented. Practical implications This research aims to help industry partners understand the drivers motivating institutional investors to uptake sustainability initiatives with the aim of improving decision making, assessment, and management of sustainable commercial office buildings. Originality/value Building on the four generations of the sustainability framework presented by Simons et al. (2001), this research argues that the US real estate market has yet again adjusted its relationship with sustainability and revises their framework to include a new, post-GFC generation for decision making, assessment, and management of sustainable real estate.

Market efficiency and the global financial crisis: evidence from developed markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Sabbaghi ◽  
Navid Sabbaghi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Empirical Investigations

Purpose This study aims to provide one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Using the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) country indices as proxies for national stock markets, the study conducts a battery of econometric tests in assessing weak-form market efficiency for the developed markets. Findings The inferential outcomes are consistent among the different tests. Specifically, the study finds that the majority of developed markets are weak-form efficient while the USA is the sole equity market to be commonly diagnosed as weak-form inefficient across the different tests when using full period data spanning the January 2008-November 2011 period. However, when basing the analysis on one-year subsamples over the identical time period, this study fails to reject weak-form market efficiency for all of the developed markets and presents evidence consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis as described by Urquhart and Hudson (2013). When applying technical analysis for the case of the USA over the full study period, the results indicate that the return predictabilities can be exploited for some horizon of variable length moving average (VMA) trading rules. Originality/value This study provides one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis using an extended set of econometric tests. The study contributes to the existing body of empirical research that formally assesses the impact of a financial crisis on stock market efficiency and underlines the significance and relevance of examining market efficiency through subsample analysis.

Taking the ethical lead

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 37-39
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Reading Time ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lehman Brothers ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds his/her own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings Take any financial or environmental scandal perpetrated by a major company – and unfortunately, there are quite a few to choose from – and people will tend to remember what went wrong and some of the fallout from the scandal, but it is unlikely they will know much about why something went wrong. For example, people will remember that Lehman Brothers went bust during the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008 and can picture its employees leaving its offices with Iron Mountain boxes. They will also perhaps remember the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989, and the devastation it caused the local wildlife. But does anyone remember exactly why these events occurred? Practical implications This paper provides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world’s leading organizations. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

House prices and credit cycles: the case of Cyprus

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 539-550
Author(s):  
Dario Pontiggia ◽  
Petros Stavrou Sivitanides
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess whether the rapid accumulation of bank deposits before the global financial crisis and their subsequent drastic reduction was the main driving force of the Cyprus house price cycle over the period 2006–2015.Design/methodology/approachTo this aim we estimate a three-equation model in which house prices are determined by housing loans, among other factors, and housing loans are determined by bank deposits. All equations are estimated using partial adjustment model specifications.FindingsOur findings indicate that housing loans, which capture the effect of credit availability on housing demand, had the smallest effect on house prices, thus providing little support to our proposition of a deposits-driven cycle in house prices.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of the study is the use of the housing loan stock instead of the actual volume of housing loans in each period due to lack of such data. As a result our econometric estimates may not accurately capture the magnitude of the effect of housing loans on house prices.Practical implicationsThe study has important practical implications for policy makers as it highlights the importance of availability of credit in supporting effective demand for housing during periods of economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the key role of house price increases in combination with the collateral effect in driving the house price cycle.Originality/valueThis is among the few studies internationally and the first study in Cyprus that attempts to link econometrically the credit and house price cycles that were caused by the global financial crisis.

scholarly journals Explaining the premium to NAV in publicly traded Australian REITs, 2008–2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isil Erol ◽  
Tanja Tyvimaa
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Rational Approach ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Financial Leverage ◽  
Publicly Traded ◽  
Aggressive Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Equity Ratio

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the levels and determinants of net asset value (NAV) premiums/discounts for publicly traded Australian Real Estate Investment Trust (A-REIT) market during the last decade. A-REITs were severely affected by the global financial crisis as S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT index-listed property stocks experienced 47 per cent discount to NAV, on average, in 2008–2009 crisis. Since 2013, A-REIT sector has exhibited a strong recovery from the financial crisis and traded at high premiums to date. Understanding the relationship between pricing in the public and private real estate markets has taken on great importance as A-REITs continue to trade at significant premium to NAV unlike their counterparts in the USA and Europe. Design/methodology/approach This paper follows a rational approach to explain variations in NAV premiums and explores the company-specific factors such as liquidity, financial leverage, size, stock price volatility and portfolio diversification behind the A-REIT NAV premiums/discounts. The study specifies and estimates a model of cross-sectional and time variation in premiums/discounts to NAV using semi-annual data for a sample of 40 A-REITs over the 2008–2018 period. Findings The results reveal that A-REIT premiums to NAV can be explained not only by the liquidity benefit of listed property stocks but also positive financial leverage effect. During the past decade, A-REITs have followed an aggressive approach in financing their growth by using borrowed funds to purchase assets as the income from the property offsets the cost of borrowing and the risk that accompanies it. Debt-to-equity ratio has to be considered as an important source of NAV premiums as highly geared A-REITs that favoured debt financing over equity financing traded at significant premiums to NAV of their underlying real estate assets. Practical implications The paper includes implications for the REIT market investors. The regression analysis shows that specialty A-REITs with a focus on creative market niches traded at higher premiums compared with other property stocks, especially in the post-GFC recovery period. Specialty REITs are more highly valued by the market than their traditional specialised counterparts (e.g. office and retail REITs), and those pursuing a diversified strategy. Originality/value This paper presents an Australian case study as the A-REIT market provides a suitable environment for testing the effect of financial gearing on the REIT premium to NAV. The study provides empirical evidence supporting the importance of debt-to-equity ratio in explaining the variation in A-REIT NAV premiums.

Housing markets and policy in the UK and the USA

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Jones ◽  
Harry W. Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose – This paper aims to examine how the exogenous shock of the global financial crisis has had a differential impact on the housing markets of the USA and UK. Design/methodology/approach – The paper begins by examining the nature and dynamics of the global financial crisis. It presents a detailed comparison of institutional and housing market characteristics in each country. A particular focus is the differences in mortgage funding and subprime lending trends over the decade leading up to the financial crisis. Findings – The analysis demonstrates the distinctiveness of the recent housing cycles and the geography of the downward price adjustments. Relative unemployment rates play a key role in these outcomes. Despite the different dynamics of the boom and bust, there is a common legacy in terms of the collapse of house building, repossessions/foreclosures and falling home ownership rates. The short-term policy responses by both governments addressed the same target issues in alternative ways but with different outcomes. Longer-term solutions are still being debated in both countries. Originality/value – Innovatory insights are provided by the comparison of the sub-national spatial pattern of the recent house price cycle in two countries.

What goes up and what goes down

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 7-9
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Reading Time ◽  
Cutting Edge ◽  
General Motors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings For many young managers and strategists, few of them will realize just how mighty Japan and its firms were in the 1990s. As the world’s second biggest economy, it saw many of its firms lead their industries in both size and innovation – Toyota and Sony being just two examples – so that they genuinely threatened to overtake the USA and its preeminence. Indeed, when Toyota finally overtook General Motors as the world’s biggest car manufacturer, the effect was felt through Detroit and beyond. Further stories about the similar rise in the price of Tokyo real estate became legendary as well – for example that the well-heeled district of Ginza in central Tokyo was worth more than the whole of California. Practical Implications The paper provides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world’s leading organizations. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

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