Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Net Asset Value (NAV) of Islamic Equity Unit Trust Funds: Cointegration Evidence from Malaysian Unit Trust Industry.

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 02-16
Author(s):  
Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman ◽  
Ahamed Kameel ◽  
Hasanuddeen Abdul Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Unit Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Trust Funds ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Unit Trust ◽  
Trust Industry

Objective - Even though the unit trust industry witnessed high growth in portfolios size, performances and regulations, however, there is still insufficient understanding of various aspects of the industry such as the lack of information on the funds' unit price behavior and their trend in the long-term investment. This study, therefore, aims to investigate the long-run relationship between the chosen macroeconomic factors and the NAV of the Islamic equity unit trust funds as well as the effect of the (2007-2008) global financial crisis on the performance of Islamic equity unit trust funds and their unit prices. Methodology/Technique - The study utilized Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework in order to analyze this relationship over the period January 2006 to December 2012 using monthly data. Findings - The findings of the investigations confirmed that the selected macro-economic variables do share long-run relationship with the NAV of the Islamic equity unit trust funds in the Malaysian capital market. Novelty - A successful innovation of the relationship between the funds NAV and the selected macroeconomic variables will assist the entire interested group, such as, investors, management of the funds, government agencies, industry players and policy makers to estimate the future trend direction of the NAV and accordingly decide on the operational, managerial, and sustainable growth decisions. Type of Paper - Empirical Paper Keywords: , Islamic Equity Unit Trust Funds; Macroeconomic Variables; Malaysia

Dynamic implications of GDP, interest rates, taxes, income, foreign direct investments, housing prices on property NPLs

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuen-Wei Tham ◽  
Rosli Said ◽  
Yasmin Mohd Adnan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
First Time

Purpose The study on how macroeconomic factors affect non-performing loans (NPLs) have not been focussed on property loans, which had been amongst the largest contributor of NPLs in many countries. At the same time, whilst there are many studies that focusses on NPLs during the recession and financial crises, not many studies focus on how macroeconomic factors affect property NPLs in a recovering economic environment. The purpose of this study seeks to fill the gap by analysing the relationships between gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, income, foreign direct investments (FDI), housing prices and taxes on property NPLs with Malaysia as a case study in which NPLs rose for the first time after declining for almost a decade since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. This study aims to understand the dynamics and direction of causation in relationships. Design/methodology/approach The author uses the auto regressive distribution lag analysis between the independent variables of GDP, interest rates, housing prices, service taxes, percapita income and FDI affecting the dependent variable of property NPLs from 2009 to 2017, during a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time in almost a decade of decline. Findings This study found that interest rates, housing prices, income, GDP and service taxes were found to possess long cause effects and long run elasticity with NPLs. At the same time, interest rates were found to implicate property NPLs significantly in longer periods, followed by GDP, housing prices, service taxes and income. FDIs were found to be insignificantly negative in implicating property NPLs in the long run. Research limitations/implications This paper allows policymakers to understand the dynamic implications of crucial macroeconomic factors in affecting NPLs so that appropriate strategic monetary policies could be formulated towards addressing them. More focus shall be given to addressing the long term implications of these factors on NPLs. Practical implications Appropriate strategic monetary policy making can be channelled towards addressing these factors via understanding the short and long term implications of macroeconomic variables on property NPLs. Policymakers can take note of the long cause effects and long run elasticity of average interest rates, housing prices, income levels, GDP and service taxes with property NPLs so that appropriate long term policies can be addressed to control the rise of property NPLs in the country. At the same time, priority should be given towards strengthening of the GDP of the country due to its strongest impact in long term effects with reduction of NPLs in the country. Social implications The insights from the present study suggest policymakers interested in bringing stability in the real estate finance system need to account for the various macroeconomic variables found in this study. Originality/value The paper is novel on at least two dimensions. First, this study involves focussing on a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time after a decade of decline since recovering from the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. At the same time, this study focusses on property NPLs, which is unique in nature compared to general NPLs. This study had enabled policymakers to better understand the dynamic implications of several macroeconomic variables affecting property NPLs and assist them in strategic monetary policy making.

scholarly journals Identification of macroeconomic determinants for diversification and investment strategy for Islamic unit trust funds in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 653-675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman ◽  
Hasanuddeen Abdul Aziz ◽  
Salina Kassim
Keyword(s):  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Trust Funds ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Unit Trust ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of selected macroeconomic variables in influencing the movement of net asset value (NAV) of the Islamic unit trust funds (UTFs) in Malaysia. In efforts to arrive at more enriching findings, the UTFs are further categorised into equity, bond, balanced, fixed, mixed, money market and feeder funds. Design/methodology/approach The study adopts the vector autoregression framework (Johansen and Juselius (1990), cointegration test and vector error correction model to analyse the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the NAVs of the various type of funds. Findings The study shows that there is a significant long-run equilibrium relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the NAV of all Islamic UTFs in Malaysia. Despite of this, the findings show that different funds have different responses to the movements of the macroeconomic variables. Practical implications The results of the study are of significant importance to the various stakeholders in the Islamic UTF industry. Investors benefit in terms of getting the inputs on their investment decisions as to whether to buy, hold or sell fund units within their investment portfolio in the long run, along with building their optimal portfolio diversification investment strategy, especially in reallocating their assets distribution between the various types of funds in the UTFs industry. For the policy-makers, the findings of the study may assist them in evaluating the suitability of the existing economic policies as to whether they positively or negatively contribute to the development of the Islamic UTFs. Originality/value This paper fulfils the need to understand how unit-holders can strategise and diversify their portfolio investments in the Malaysian Islamic UTFs industry based on detailed understanding and knowledge derived from rational and scientific inputs.

scholarly journals Determinants of Islamic Rural Bank Financing in Indonesia

JEJAK ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 273-288
Author(s):  
Arif Widodo ◽  
Istianah Asas
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research is designed to empirically investigate the determinants of Islamic rural banking financing in Indonesia after 2008 global financial crisis covering period 2009.1-2014.12. The methods applied in this research are Error Correction Model (ECM) and VAR/VECM. The results of ECM model demonstrate that the variable third party funds (DPK) and non-performing financing can significantly affect Islamic rural banking financing both in the short run and long run, while Return on Asset (ROA) and Profit-and-loss sharing does not have a significant influence. Islamic rural bank financing, however, was influenced by inflation and exchange rate as the proxy of macroeconomic variables in the short and long run. Furthermore, Impulse Response Function (IRF) and variance decomposition results show that Profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) has the largest positive impact to financing (39.08%), followed by third party fund (19.6%) and inflation (8.9%). While, the variables that contribute to reduce financing are non-performing financing (9.02%), followed by ROA (7.76%) and exchange rate (2.48%).

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Factors and Equity Prices: An Empirical Investigation by Using ARDL Approach

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (4II) ◽  
pp. 501-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arshad Hasan ◽  
Zafar Mueen Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between macroeconomic variables and the equity prices has attracted the curiosity of academicians and practitioners since the publication of seminal paper of Chen, et al. (1986). Many empirical studies those tested the relationship reveal that asset pricing theories do not properly identify macroeconomic factors that influence equity prices [Roll and Ross (1980); Fama (1981); Chen, et al. (1986); Hamao (1986); Faff (1988); Chen (1991); Maysami and Koh (2000) and Paul and Mallik (2001)]. In most of these studies, variable selection and empirical analyses is based on economic rationale, financial theory and investors’ intuition. These studies generally apply Eagle and Granger (1987) procedure or Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) approach in Vector Auto Regressor (VAR) Framework. In Pakistan, Fazal (2006) and Nishat (2001) explored the relationship between macroeconomic factors and equity prices by using Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) procedure. The present study tests the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, oil prices, short term interest rate, exchange rates, foreign portfolio investment, money supply and equity prices by using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1996, 2001). The ARDL approach in an errorcorrection setting has been widely applied to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on economic growth but it is strongly underutilised in the capital market filament of literature. This methodology has a number of advantages over the other models. First, determining the order of integration of macroeconomic factors and equity market returns is not an important issue here because the Pesaran ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I(0) or I(1) and of the extent of cointegration. Secondly, the ARDL approach allows exploring correct dynamic structure while many econometric procedures do not allow to clearly distinguish between long run and short run relationships.

scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Banking Profitabilty

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Lutfullah Lutf ◽  
Hafizullah Omarkhil
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Comparative Performance ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study comparatively focuses on the impact of macroeconomic determinants and the internal indicators on bank performance. It comparatively evaluates the differential effects of macroeconomic variables and bank specific variables. Thus, considering five-five banks from each system, a comparative performance investigation between conventional & Islamic banks is the aim of this paper. To determine the short-run and long-run impact of these factors, co-integration & general to specific approach are adopted. This study also considers bank specific and macroeconomic variables in two separate models (Return on Assets and Return on Equity). Our objective is to find whether or not Islamic banks are performing well in the country as compared to their conventional counterparts. The results indicate that in the long run, Gross Domestic Product, and inflation, is positively related to performance, while Interest rate has no effect on the performance of banking sector in Pakistan. Similarly, bank size, capital adequacy, expenses, interest income and non-interest income are the bank related factors that significantly influence the performance of financial sector.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Returns Revisited

2020 ◽  
Vol 03 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Feifei Wang ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Real ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

I revisit the relation between macroeconomic activities and stock prices by selecting the most important macroeconomic variables that are appropriate for analyzing their impact on stock returns. Using vector autogressive models (VAR), combined with co integration analysis and the vector error correction model (VECM) I estimate the explanatory power of each macroeconomic variable on the variations of the stock prices and distinguish the short-run from long-run movements among all key macroeconomic variables. I find that (1) in the short-run macroeconomic variables do not appear help explain changes in stock returns, (2) in the long-run the real interest rate and industrial production are the most important macroeconomic factors, and (3) in the long-term the real economic activity and stock returns Granger-cause each other.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Kuwait

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad M. Al-Kandari ◽  
Sadeq J. Abul
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Impact

The Kuwaiti Stock Exchange was established in April 1977 and is among the oldest stock exchanges in the GCC countries. This study aims to add new evidence about the impact of macroeconomic factors on the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange. It examines empirically the dynamic relationship between the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange Index and the main macroeconomic variables. These variables included M2, the three-month deposit interest rate, oil prices, the US Dollar vs Kuwaiti Dinar exchange rate and the inflation rate. By applying the Johansen cointegration test, together with the Var Error Correction Model (VECM), the study found that there a long-run unidirectional relationship exists between the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange Index and the aforementioned macroeconomic variables. This study also confirmed the existence of a short-run relationship between oil prices and stock prices in Kuwait.

Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Market Sector Indices and Macroeconomic Variables in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-41
Author(s):  
Neeru Gupta ◽  
Ashish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

This study investigates the long-term and short-term relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and the selected Indian stock market sector indices over the period of 2010 to 2017. The Johansen Co-integration Test, the Vector error correction model (VECM), is applied to calculate the long-term and short-term relationship between sector indices and macroeconomic variables. It is found that stock prices are exposed to macroeconomic factors, but the level of sensitivity is different in different sectors. Out of five sectors taken in the study, it is found that only the realty sector has long run relationship with macroeconomic variables. Other sectors have no long run relationship with macroeconomic variables. Along with this, it is also found that the Auto index has a significant short-term positive relationship with gold prices and the FMCG sector index has a significant short-term positive relationship with industrial production. The consumer price index and exchange rate have significant short run relationship with realty sector index.

scholarly journals Impacts of Macroeconomy on Stock Market: Evidence from Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 140-146
Author(s):  
Farid Ullah ◽  
Ijaz Hussain ◽  
Abdur Rauf
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Span ◽  
Long Run

Stock market is a place where the securities of listed companies are traded and this can be affected by both macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic factors. The impacts of macroeconomic factors on stock market of Pakistan are investigated in the current study. For this purpose monthly data covering the period from January 2008 to December 2012 is used in this study while taking the three most important macroeconomic variables, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Inflation. Using the more advance Bound Testing Approach, a very strong long run cointegration is found amongst the variables taken for the study. In the long span of time, the results suggest that both Exchange Rate and Interest Rate have negative association with stock market of Pakistan while the Inflation Rate does not create such a condition that affect the stock market of Pakistan. Same results are found for the shorter version of time.

Do the changes in macroeconomic variables have a symmetric or asymmetric effect on stock prices? Evidence from Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 312-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bisharat Hussain Chang ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Asymmetric Behavior ◽  
Long Run

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine whether macroeconomic variables have a symmetric or asymmetric effect on stock prices (SP) of Karachi Stock Exchange 100 index in the context of Pakistan. It also examines whether the asymmetric impact of macroeconomic variables on SP has been affected by tail events such as the global financial crisis.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models for the full sample period as well as in pre- and post-crisis periods. The whole sample period covers the data from June 2004 to June 2016 which include 145 observations in total. The pre-crisis period covers data from June 2004 to December 2007 and the post-crisis period covers the data from January 2009 to June 2016 where these periods include 43 and 90 observations, respectively.FindingsThe findings suggest that the relationship between macroeconomic variables and SP is asymmetric in the short run whereas this effect is symmetric in the long run when the whole sample period is selected. However, when pre- and post-crisis periods are selected this effect becomes asymmetric in the long run as well; that is, positive and negative shocks in macroeconomic variables do not affect the SP in the same way.Practical implicationsInvestors, governments and other stakeholders are advised to consider the asymmetric behavior of macroeconomic variables and SP while making an investment or other decisions. They may consider the financial crisis as well since the asymmetric behavior of the underlying variables change as a result of the financial crisis.Originality/valueThis study extends previous studies by examining the asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables and also contributes to the existing literature by discussing how this relationship changes as a result of the financial crisis.

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