Non-linear modelling of market cycles in South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 670-683
Author(s):  
Yudhvir Seetharam ◽  
James Britten
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Ar Model ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Star Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Linear Modelling ◽  
Non Linear

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to expand on the sparse literature on non-linear modelling in South Africa and test for non-linearity of the market cycle on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with specific focus on a particular non-linear model – a Smooth Transition Auto-Regressive (STAR) model. Design/methodology/approach – Non-linear estimation methods are used to describe the market cycle, as defined by equity prices, for the period 1998-2010. Findings – In applying the STAR model to daily, weekly and monthly returns data, it was found that the fit of this family of models differs heavily based on the frequency of data used. The daily Logarithmic STAR (LSTAR) model was found to be the best fit relative to other data frequencies. Indeed, the weekly LSTAR model, while still appropriate to use, was less apt at forecasting than its daily counterpart. Monthly return data indicated that a linear AR model was more appropriate than a non-linear one. Practical implications – The results assist in understanding the cyclical nature of emerging markets as well contributing to the understanding of creating a portfolio consisting of international securities. If one can show that equity returns in a particular emerging market follow non-linear behaviour, expanding this hypothesis to other emerging markets enables a minimum variance portfolio to be constructed that is informed by returns changing over time. Originality/value – The findings can be used for further research into share price modelling, portfolio management and perhaps as an avenue into the reasoning behind the formation of market cycles.

Earnings management and ownership structure in emerging market

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (10) ◽  
pp. 1117-1136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naima Lassoued ◽  
Mouna Ben Rejeb Attia ◽  
Houda Sassi
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Earnings Management ◽  
Ownership Structure ◽  
Audit Quality ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Convincing Evidence ◽  
Loan Loss ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether ownership structure affects earnings management in the banking industry of emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach The empirical study is conducted using a sample of 134 banks from 12 Middle Eastern and North African countries. Econometrically speaking, the study used a panel data regression analysis. Findings The authors found convincing evidence that banks with more concentrated ownership use discretionary loan loss provisions to manage their earnings. The authors also found that state and institutional owners encourage earnings management, while family owners reduce this practice. Practical implications The findings would be valuable for investors since they should take into account ownership structure in order to reach a better investment decision. Moreover, regulatory reforms in emerging markets should push for more transparency about ownership structure, high levels of supervision, and external audit quality. Originality/value This study presents international evidence on the prominent role of owners in earnings management in emerging markets with weak shareholder rights protection.

Measuring the service gaps in the roles of quantity surveyors in the emerging market

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1111-1131 ◽  
Author(s):  
AbdulLateef Olanrewaju
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
The Other ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Survey Questionnaires

Purpose – The opportunities that the emerging markets present to the players in the construction industry means that the players need to expand on the scope and size of their responsibilities and duties to the stakeholders. Each of the professionals now demands more specialised and sophisticated services from one another. The other players in the construction industry now require more emerging responsibilities and duties from the quantity surveyors. The purpose of this paper is to examine the roles that “modern” quantity surveyors play by measuring the gaps that exist in the services that the quantity surveyors provide. Design/methodology/approach – Primary data are collected through survey questionnaires. In total, 23 roles played by modern quantity surveyors are identified and addressed to the respondents to rank the rate at which quantity surveyors provide these “emerging” services. The collected data were analysed statistically. Findings – The results of the findings led to the conclusion that the quantity surveyors were not meeting the expectations of other players. Therefore, for competitiveness, quantity surveyors need to better meet demand expectations. Research limitations/implications – This findings of this research are constrained to the services or functions that the quantity provide in the construction industry. Practical implications – This knowledge is valuable to academic institutions that offer quantity surveying programmes, to practicing quantity surveyors, governments, and other players in the construction industry. It will allow quantity surveyors to reconcile supply and demand expectations. Originality/value – There is no known conclusive empirical study on services offered by quantity surveyors in any emerging markets. Therefore, the findings offer a fresh understanding on the services of quantity surveyors not only in Nigeria but elsewhere. While some of the services are common, others are peculiar to emerging markets.

Home country underdevelopment and internationalization

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Cuervo-Cazurra ◽  
Ravi Ramamurti
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Home Country ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emerging Market Multinationals ◽  
Economic Underdevelopment ◽  
Conceptual Paper ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
At Home

Purpose The purpose of this study is to use the rise of emerging-market multinationals as a vehicle to explore how a firm’s country of origin influences its internationalization. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a conceptual paper. Findings We argue that the home country’s institutional and economic underdevelopment can influence the internationalization of firms in two ways. First, emerging-market firms may leverage innovations made at home to cope with underdeveloped institutions or economic backwardness to gain a competitive advantage abroad, especially in other emerging markets; We call this innovation-based internationalization. Second, they may expand into countries that are more developed or have better institutions to escape weaknesses on these fronts at home; we call this escape-based internationalization. Research limitations/implications Comparative disadvantages influence the internationalization of the firm differently from comparative advantage, as it forces the firm to actively upgrade its firm-specific advantage and internationalize. Practical implications We explain two drivers of internationalization that managers operating in emerging markets can consider when facing disadvantages in their home countries and follow several strategies, namely, trickle-up innovation, self-reliant innovation, improvisation management, self-reliance management, technological escape, marketing escape, institutional escape and discriminatory escape. Originality/value We explain how a firm’s home country’s comparative disadvantage, not just its comparative advantage, can spur firms its internationalization.

Conditional stock liquidity premium: is Warsaw stock exchange different?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Szymon Stereńczak
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Liquidity Premium ◽  
Stock Liquidity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bear Market

Purpose This paper aims to empirically indicate the factors influencing stock liquidity premium (i.e. the relationship between liquidity and stock returns) in one of the leading European emerging markets, namely, the Polish one. Design/methodology/approach Various firms’ characteristics and market states are analysed as potentially affecting liquidity premiums in the Polish stock market. Stock returns are regressed on liquidity measures and panel models are used. Liquidity premium has been estimated in various subsamples. Findings The findings vividly contradict the common sense that liquidity premium raises during the periods of stress. Liquidity premium does not increase during bear markets, as investors lengthen the investment horizon when market liquidity decreases. Liquidity premium varies with the firm’s size, book-to-market value and stock risk, but these patterns seem to vanish during a bear market. Originality/value This is one of the first empirical papers considering conditional stock liquidity premium in an emerging market. Using a unique methodological design it is presented that liquidity premium in emerging markets behaves differently than in developed markets.

Fashion designers' attitude-behaviour inconsistencies towards a sustainable business model: a neutralisation theory perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asphat Muposhi ◽  
Brighton Nyagadza ◽  
Chengedzai Mafini
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Sustainable Fashion ◽  
Fashion Designers

PurposeFashion designers in South Africa remain ambivalent in embracing sustainable fashion. This study examines the role of neutralisation techniques on attitude towards sustainable fashion. The study was conducted in South Africa, an emerging market known for water scarcity and pollution emanating from the textile industry.Design/methodology/approachA structured questionnaire was used to collect cross-sectional data from a sample of 590 fashion designers using a web-based online survey. Study constructs were drawn from the neutralisation theory and theory of planned behaviour.FindingsStandard multiple regression analysis results identified denial of injury, appeal to higher loyalties and external locus of control as the major rationalisation techniques influencing South African designers' negative attitudes towards sustainable fashion.Research limitations/implicationsResearch was conducted in South Africa where the concept of sustainable fashion is still at developmental stages. The generalisation of the study findings may be enhanced by extending the study to other markets with a fully developed market for sustainable fashion.Practical implicationsThe study results underscore the necessity of reducing social, structural and institutional barriers associated with the adoption of sustainable fashion. This study provides input towards efforts to develop attitude change strategies to stimulate designers to embrace sustainable fashion.Originality/valueThe research study contributes to theory, practice and future research.

scholarly journals Evaluating the impact of corporate logos towards corporate reputation

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantea Foroudi ◽  
Khalid Hafeez ◽  
Mohammad M. Foroudi
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
Attribution Theory ◽  
Corporate Reputation ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Corporate Image ◽  
Customer Relationship ◽  
Corporate Communications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of corporate logos on corporate image and reputation in creating competitive advantage in the context of Persia and Mexico as emerging markets. The paper provides an extensive links between corporate logo and its dimension and internal stakeholders’ attitudes towards advertisement, familiarity and recognisability as intermediaries to corporate image and reputation. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative exploratory approach was undertaken, comprising 12 face-to-face interviews and 14 skype in-depth interviews with graphic designers, design, communication and marketing consultant in Mexico and Persia based on attribution theory. Findings The study posits that the more favorable the name, colour, typeface and design of the company logo, the more favorable the attitude Mexican consumers have towards the corporate logo, corporate image and reputation. However, in comparison for Persia these factors have less effect on customers’ judgment and behaviour, towards the corporate logo, corporate image and reputation. The research findings suggest that the selection of colour in a corporate logo is related to its marketing objectives, cultural values, desired customer relationship levels with the organisation and organisation’s corporate communications. Originality/value Corporate logo has received little attention in marketing literature and rarely researched in the context of emerging market. This is the first research of its kind to find the effect of the compound logo in emerging markets of Persia and Mexico. Therefore, this research makes significant contribution towards the corporate visual identity literature by developing of the sphere of influence of the corporate logo and its antecedents and consequences (corporate image and corporate reputation).

CSR engagement and values in a pre-emerging and emerging country context

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1251-1272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginia Munro ◽  
Denni Arli ◽  
Sharyn Rundle-Thiele
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Social Identity ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Social Identity Theory ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Employee Values ◽  
Emerging Country ◽  
Csr Strategy ◽  
Employee Identification

Purpose Internationalization has witnessed rapid growth of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in emerging markets, requiring reflection on how to operate within these markets. The purpose of this paper is to assist MNEs to adapt to these markets, and adopt corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy with social initiatives (SIs), relevant to stakeholders, including their employees and the communities they reside in. The current paper does this by examining the relationships between employee identification with the organization’s SIs (SI-I) and their engagement in them (SI-E), alongside their perspective on the general importance of CSR (ICSR) and employee values to help with CSR (VCSR). The findings will better prepare managers in pre-emerging and emerging markets to design CSR strategy and SIs relevant to these markets and their communities. Design/methodology/approach Guided by social identity theory, this paper examines local employee identification of SI (SI-I) and engagement in SI (SI-E), in two MNE subsidiaries across varying emerging market levels in developing countries, utilizing a quantitative survey design. Structural equation modeling is utilized to analyze responses of N=544 employees in two South East Asian countries, namely, Indonesia (as an emerging country) and Vietnam (as a pre-emerging country), to determine any differences that may exist between the two countries. Findings The findings reveal that SI identification (SI-I) has a strong effect on employee engagement in SIs (SI-E) and also the importance they attach to organizations conducting CSR (ICSR). However, employee values to help with CSR activities (VCSR) has an effect on Vietnamese employees but not Indonesian employees. Likewise, SI-I mediates the effect between ICSR and SI-E for Vietnamese employees but not for Indonesian, suggesting differences exist between these two developing countries where the less developed country, Vietnam, is defined as pre-emerging and Indonesia as an emerging market (MSCI, 2016). Practical implications An awareness of the differences that may exist across employees in emerging markets will assist managers to design CSR strategy relevant to the level of market emergence of the host country, allowing for better CSR SIs identification and engagement in these countries. Originality/value The research model for this analysis utilizes constructs based on past Identification literature, while including new constructs for this study adapted from past literature, and underpinned uniquely by social identity theory in an International Business setting. The findings indicate differences between emerging and pre-emerging markets for particular constructs, which suggests the importance of considering the market level when implementing MNE CSR strategy. Limited research has been conducted examining the differences between emerging and pre-emerging markets, so further research is required to replicate these findings and provide insight into the differences that may exist for CSR SIs in emerging markets.

scholarly journals Bond Portfolio Allocations in South Africa Emerging Markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-80
Author(s):  
Jinghua Wang ◽  
John Bilson
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Portfolio Performance ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Bond Portfolio ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients ◽  
Developed World

Over the past fifty years, economic growth in emerging markets has been supported by investments in capital and technology from the developed world. The benefit of this development for the emerging markets, as measured by growth in income, employment, and wealth, is immediately apparent. There have also been significant advantages for the developed world through opportunities for higher risk adjusted returns from investments in emerging markets. This study explores the benefits of the diversification of global government bond portfolio, and provides complete performance evaluations of DMs with or without South Africa emerging market (SAEM) bonds. The study examines the benefits of inclusion of SAEM bonds in DMs, the degrees of financial integration among the research markets, the relative bond returns of dynamic factor models with time-varying coefficients and the robust tests of bond portfolio performance between DMs with SAEM and bond index. The results of this study provide important implications for global investors by identifying diversification gains in SAEM.

Emerging markets are now more resilient to US tapering

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
Equity Funds

Significance The rise in yields is stirring memories of the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’, which led to a dramatic decline in emerging market (EM) currencies and local bonds, prompting three years of net outflows from EM debt and equity funds. Investor fears of US tightening have risen with growth and inflation expectations. Impacts If the trade-weighted dollar index rises further, this will threaten EM currencies, especially those with large dollar-denominated debts. The Brent oil price has gained 70% since November to USD68 per barrel but further upside is limited, with no commodities ‘supercycle’ ahead. Recent moves fuel fears of the normally staid US bond market becoming volatile; stable ten-year Chinese yields are being seen as a haven.

The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) finance on financing constraints of non-SOE firms in emerging markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Shao ◽  
Zhukun Lou ◽  
Chong Wang ◽  
Jinye Mao ◽  
Ailin Ye
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Financing Constraints ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emerging Market Countries ◽  
Finance Development ◽  
Cash Flow Sensitivity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis study investigates the impact of AI finance on financing constraints of non-SOE firms in an emerging market.Design/methodology/approachUsing a sample of non-SOE listed companies in China from 2011 to 2018, this research employs the cash–cash flow sensitivity model to examine the effect of AI finance on financing constraints of non-SOE firms.FindingsWe find that the development of AI finance can alleviate the financing constraints of non-SOE firms. Further, we document that such effect is more pronounced for smaller firms, more innovative firms and firms in developing areas.Practical implicationsThis study suggests that emerging market countries can ease the financing constraints of non-SOE firms by promoting AI finance development.Originality/valueThis study, to the best of our knowledge, is the first one to explore the relationship between AI finance development and financing constraints of non-SOE firms in emerging markets.

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