Impact of oil and gas prices shocks on banks’ deposits in an oil and gas-rich economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 875-901 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulazeez Y.H. Saif-Alyousfi ◽  
Asish Saha ◽  
Rohani Md-Rus
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate and compare the impact of oil and gas prices changes on bank deposits at the aggregate as well as at the level of commercial and Islamic banks in Qatar over the period 2000–2016. Design/methodology/approach Using the BankScope Database as well as bank-level balance sheet and financial statements data, the authors use one-step system GMM dynamic model to examine and compare the association between oil and gas prices changes with bank deposits in Qatar. The authors also test hypotheses of direct and indirect impacts of oil and gas prices changes on bank deposits. Findings The results indicate that oil and gas prices changes have a direct impact on deposits of banks at the aggregate level in Qatar. However, the authors find that oil and gas price changes significantly affect deposits of Qatari commercial banks directly prompting enhanced lending by banks and the consequent business activities in the economy, while their impact on the deposits of Qatari Islamic banks is indirect, i.e. the impact is permeated through the macroeconomic and institutional characteristics of the country that are reinforced by the growing expectations and commercial sentiment of the country. The authors find that significant association between oil price changes and deposit growth during the global financial crisis 2008 has been distorted. However, the authors find that there was a sharp rise in the deposits of Islamic banks during the period of global financial crisis. Practical implications The results of this study necessitate policy measures that can counter the effects of changes in oil and gas prices on the effectiveness of bank deposits. Originality/value It is widely recognized that oil and gas prices and the level of production are of great importance to the economic development of oil and gas exporting countries. So far, however, no econometric study has been reported in the literature which analyses and compares the impact of oil and gas prices changes on bank deposits of commercial and Islamic banks and also at the aggregate level in any of the oil-exporting economies. Thus, this study provides the first empirical evidence on distinct direct and indirect channels through which oil and gas prices changes may affect bank deposits.

scholarly journals Alternative measures for predicting financial distress in the case of Malaysian Islamic banks: assessing the impact of global financial crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1827-1845
Author(s):  
Mehmet Asutay ◽  
Jaizah Othman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Alternative Funding ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The global financial crisis of 2008 still has an impact on the financial systems around the world, for which funding liquidity has been mentioned as one of the main concerns during that period. This study aims to consider the impact of and extent to which the funding structure of Islamic banks along with deposit structure, macroeconomic variables, other bank-specific variables, including alternative funding mix variables (in terms of funding structure measured as financing/deposit ratio), could play a part in explaining the financial conditions and predicting the failures and performances of Islamic banks in the case of Malaysia under the distress created by the global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Multivariate logit model was used with a sample including 17 full-fledged Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period from December 2005 to September 2010 by using quarterly data. Findings This study found that the funding mix variable (financing/deposit ratio), the composition of deposits, alternative bank-specific variables and alternative funding mix variables are statistically significant. In contrast, none of the macroeconomic variables is found to have a significant impact on bank liquidity. In the final models, the variables that showed significant performance were selected as explanatory variables. The results of McFadden R-squared for both selected models showed an excellent fit to predict the Islamic banks’ performance. Originality/value This empirical study contributes to the literature in two ways: to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the role of the funding structures of Islamic banks in determining their performance; and it also examines the effect of deposit composition (the mudharabah and non-mudharabah deposits) on Islamic banks’ performance.

Comparing the competition of Malaysia Islamic and conventional banks

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhamad Azhari Wahid
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Robust Regression ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to analyse three main questions within the Malaysian banking system: Are Islamic banks more competitive than conventional banks? What are the levels of competition for Islamic and conventional banking sectors pre, during and post the 2007-2009 global financial crisis? Does penetration of Islamic banks affect the competitive structure of conventional banks? Design/methodology/approach In measuring a bank competition, the author estimates the Panzar–Rosse H-statistic (PRH) method on 17 Islamic and 21 conventional banks in Malaysia over the period of 2004-2013. This is then followed by ordinary least squares (OLS) robust regression analysis to control Islamic banks’ penetration, bank-specific and macroeconomic factors. Findings Results from the PRH method (total revenue) suggest that Malaysian Islamic banks are relatively more competitive than their conventional counterparts. Furthermore, the author observes that the level of competition for both Malaysian Islamic and conventional banks increased tremendously during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. This suggests the impact of the crisis on the level of competition for both banking systems. Finally, the OLS robust regression suggests that Islamic banks’ penetration has a significantly positive impact on the level of competition for conventional banks. The PRH estimation using total interest income indicates similar results, suggesting the robustness of these results. Practical implications This study reveals whether Islamic banks’ penetration is able to increase the level of competition within the conventional banking sector. Knowledge on this is important to the policymaker. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study using the PRH method in comparing the level of competition for Malaysian Islamic and conventional banks. Furthermore, this is the first study analysing the impact of Malaysian Islamic banks’ penetration on the level of competition for conventional banks.

scholarly journals Risk management of Islamic banks: A search for empirical evidences

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 8-16
Author(s):  
Sayed M. Fadel ◽  
Jasim Al-Ajmi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Management Techniques ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The objectives of this study are to determine 1) the effect of global economic and financial crisis on risk management, 2) the severity of different types of risk facing Islamic banks, 3) the risk levels of Islamic financial modes, 4) risk assessment techniques, and 5) risk management techniques. The structure of the balance sheet, the nature of Islamic finance instruments and funding sources have a great impact on the level of risk exposure of banks and the instruments. Credit risk is found to be the most serious risk, followed by liquidity risk, market risk and operational risk, in descending order of importance. As for the riskiness of Islamic financing modes, mudarabah is perceived to be the riskiest, followed by musharakah, while murabahah ranked as the least risky mode. Moreover, Islamic banks are found to use traditional risk management techniques more than sophisticated measurements. They also adopt risk mitigation techniques that are used by conventional banks in preference to techniques that are considered to be unique to Islamic banks. This paper is the first to study the risk management practices of Islamic banks operating in Bahrain. It also provides evidence about these practices after the global financial crisis that affected all countries, including Bahrain.

Empirical evaluation of structure-conduct-performance paradigm as applied to the Iranian Islamic banking system

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Ghaemi Asl ◽  
Muhammad Mahdi Rashidi ◽  
Alireza Ghorbani
Keyword(s):  
Market Structure ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Empirical Evaluation ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Simple Regression Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of market structure and market share on the performance of the Islamic banks operating in the Iranian banking system based on the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) paradigm. Design/methodology/approach The Iranian Islamic banking system’s market structure is evaluated by using the econometrics method to test the validity of the traditional SCP paradigm. For this purpose, the authors estimate a simple regression model that is consisted of several independent variables, such as the market share, bank size, real gross domestic product, liquidity and Herfindahl-Hirschman index as a proxy variable for concentration and one dependent variable, namely, the profit as a proxy for performance. The panel data includes a data sample of 22 Islamic banks operating from 2006 to 2019. Data are extracted from the balance sheet of Islamic banks and the time-series database of the Central Bank of Iran and World Bank. Findings The study’s findings indicate that both concentration and market share have a positive impact on the performance of banks in the Iranian Islamic banking system. This result is contradicted with both traditional SCP and efficient structure hypotheses; however, it confirms the existence of oligopoly or cartel in the Iranian Islamic banking system that few banks try to gain the highest share of profit and maintain their market share by colluding with each other. This result is in contradiction with other research studies about the market structure in the Iranian banking system that claimed that banks in Iran operate under monopolistic competition. In addition, it shows that the privatization of some banks in Iran does not improve and help competition in the Iranian banking system. Originality/value This paper is a pioneer empirical study analyzing the market structure, concentration and collusion based on the SCP paradigm in Iranian Islamic banking. The results of the study support the existence of collusive behavior among the Islamic bank in Iran that is not aligned with Sharia. This study clearly shows the difference between ideal Islamic banking and Islamic banking in practice in Islamic countries. This clearly indicates that only prohibiting some operations like receiving interest, gambling and bearing excessive risk is not enough. In fact, the Islamic banking system should be based on the Sharia rule in all aspects and much more modification and study have to be done to achieve an appropriate Islamic banking system. These possible modifications to overcome the issues of cartel-like market structure and collusive behavior in the Iranian Islamic banking system include making the Iranian banking system more transparent, letting foreign banks enter the Iranian banking system and minimizing the government intervention in the Iranian banking system.

Bank mergers and acquisitions in Greece: the financial crisis and its effect on shareholder wealth

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 273-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Tampakoudis ◽  
Michail Nerantzidis ◽  
Demetres Subeniotis ◽  
Apostolos Soutsas ◽  
Nikolaos Kiosses
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Shareholder Wealth ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Bank Mergers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the wealth implications of bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the unique Greek setting given the triple crisis phenomenon – banking, sovereign debt and economic crises – that prevailed after the global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach The study examines bank M&As and bank transactions over the period from 1997 to 2018, as well as government-assisted M&As during the crisis. The wealth effects of bank M&As are assessed using both univariate and multivariate frameworks. Findings Findings show a neutral crisis effect on the valuation of M&As upon their announcement. However, the authors provide conclusive evidence that M&A completions are value-destroying events for acquiring banks during the crisis, far worse than in the pre-crisis period. Greek banks also fail to create value from government-assisted mergers. The results suggest that the financial stability and the prevention of further deepening of the Greek crisis with possible contagion effects were achieved at the expense of shareholders and taxpayers. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of the Greek triple crisis on the wealth effects of bank M&As and bank transactions. Also, the study provides first evidence with regard to the economic impact of government-assisted M&As in the European context.

Does macroeconomic uncertainty really matter in predicting stock market behavior? A comparative study on China and USA

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghulam Abbas ◽  
Shouyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Macroeconomic Risk ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe study aims to analyze the interaction between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market return and volatility for China and USA and tries to draw some invaluable inferences for the investors, portfolio managers and policy analysts.Design/methodology/approachEmpirically the study uses GARCH family models to capture the time-varying volatility of stock market and macroeconomic risk factors by using monthly data ranging from 1995:M7 to 2018:M6. Then, these volatility series are further used in the multivariate VAR model to analyze the feedback interaction between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors for China and USA. The study also incorporates the impact of Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 by using dummy variables in the GARCH model analysis.FindingsThe empirical results of GARCH models indicate volatility persistence in the stock markets and the macroeconomic variables of both countries. The study finds relatively weak and inconsistent unidirectional causality for China mainly running from the stock market to the macroeconomic variables; however, the volatility spillover transmission reciprocates when the impact of Asian financial crisis and Global financial crisis is incorporated. For USA, the contemporaneous relationship between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors is quite strong and bidirectional both at first and second moment level.Originality/valueThis study investigates the interaction between stock market and macroeconomic uncertainty for China and USA. The researchers believe that none of the prior studies has made such rigorous comparison of two of the big and diverse economies (China and USA) which are quite contrasting in terms of political, economic and social background. Therefore, this study also tries to test the presumed conception that macroeconomic uncertainty in China may have different impact on the stock market return and volatility than in USA.

The impact of guaranteed bailout assistance on bank loan overstatement

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-210
Author(s):  
Alejandro Hazera ◽  
Carmen Quirvan ◽  
Salvador Marin-Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the basic binomial option pricing model (BOPM) might be used by regulators to help formulate rules, prior to financial crisis, that help prevent loan overstatement by banks in emerging market economies undergoing financial crises. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on the theory of soft budget constraints (SBC) to construct a simple model in which banks overstate loans to minimize losses. The model is used to illustrate how guarantees of bailout assistance (BA) (to banks) by crisis stricken countries’ financial authorities may encourage banks to overstate loans and delay the implementation of IFRS for loan valuation. However, the model also illustrates how promises of BA may be depicted as binomial put options which provide banks with the option of either: reporting loan values on poor projects accurately and receiving the loans’ liquidation values; or, overstating loans and receiving the guaranteed BA. An illustration is also provided of how authorities may use this representation to help minimize bank loan overstatement in periods of financial crisis. In order to provide an illustration of how the option value of binomial assistance may evolve during a financial crisis, the model is generalized to the Mexican financial crisis of the late 1990s. During this period, Mexican authorities’ guarantees of BA to the nation’s largest banks encouraged those institutions to overstate loans and delay the implementation of (previously adopted) international “best practices” based loan valuation standards. Findings – Application of the model to the Mexican financial crisis provides evidence that, in spite of Mexico’s “official” 1997 adoption of international “best accounting practices” for banks, “iron clad” guarantees of BA by the country’s financial authorities to Mexico’s largest banks provided those institutions with an incentive to knowingly overstate loans in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Research limitations/implications – The model is compared against only one country in which the BA was directly infused into banks’ loan portfolios. Thus, as conceived, it is directly applicable to crisis countries in which the bailout took this form. However, the many quantitative variations of SBC models as well as recent studies which have applied the binomial model to other forms of bailout (e.g. direct purchases of bank shares by authorities) suggest that the model could be modified to accommodate different bailout scenarios. Practical implications – The model and application show that guaranteed BA can be viewed as a put option and that ex-ante regulatory policies based on the correct valuation of the BA as a binomial option might prevent banks from overstating loans. Social implications – Use of the binomial or similar approaches to valuing BA may help regulators to determine the level of BA that will not encourage banks to overstate the value of their loans. Originality/value – Recent research has used the BOPM to value, on an ex-post basis, the BA which appears on the balance sheet of institutions which have been rescued. However, little research has advocated the use of this type of model to help prevent, on an ex-ante basis, the overstatement of loans on poor projects.

scholarly journals The Basel accords, capital reserves, and agricultural lending

2019 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary W. Brester ◽  
Myles J. Watts
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Reserve Requirements ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Capital Reserves

Purpose The safety and soundness of financial institutions has become a leading worldwide issue because of the recent global financial crisis. Historically, financial crises have occurred approximately every 20 years. The worst financial crisis in the last 75 years occurred in 2008–2009. US regulatory efforts with respect to capital reserve requirements are likely to have several unintended consequences for the agricultural lending sector—especially for smaller, less-diversified (and often, rural agricultural) lenders. The paper discusses these issues. Design/methodology/approach Simulation models and value-at-risk (VaR) criteria are used to evaluate the impact of capital reserve requirements on lending return on equity. In addition, simulations are used to calculate the effects of loan numbers and portfolio diversification on capital reserve requirements. Findings This paper illustrates that increasing capital reserve requirements reduces lending return on equity. Furthermore, increases in the number of loans and portfolio diversification reduce capital reserve requirements. Research limitations/implications The simulation methods are a simplification of complex lending practices and VaR calculations. Lenders use these and other procedures for managing capital reserves than those modeled in this paper. Practical implications Smaller lending institutions will be pressured to increase loan sector diversification. In addition, traditional agricultural lenders will likely be under increased pressure to diversify portfolios. Because agricultural loan losses have relatively low correlations with other sectors, traditional agricultural lenders can expect increased competition for agricultural loans from non-traditional agricultural lenders. Originality/value This paper is novel in that the authors illustrate how lender capital requirements change in response to loan payment correlations both within and across lending sectors.

Market efficiency and the global financial crisis: evidence from developed markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Sabbaghi ◽  
Navid Sabbaghi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Empirical Investigations

Purpose This study aims to provide one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Using the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) country indices as proxies for national stock markets, the study conducts a battery of econometric tests in assessing weak-form market efficiency for the developed markets. Findings The inferential outcomes are consistent among the different tests. Specifically, the study finds that the majority of developed markets are weak-form efficient while the USA is the sole equity market to be commonly diagnosed as weak-form inefficient across the different tests when using full period data spanning the January 2008-November 2011 period. However, when basing the analysis on one-year subsamples over the identical time period, this study fails to reject weak-form market efficiency for all of the developed markets and presents evidence consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis as described by Urquhart and Hudson (2013). When applying technical analysis for the case of the USA over the full study period, the results indicate that the return predictabilities can be exploited for some horizon of variable length moving average (VMA) trading rules. Originality/value This study provides one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis using an extended set of econometric tests. The study contributes to the existing body of empirical research that formally assesses the impact of a financial crisis on stock market efficiency and underlines the significance and relevance of examining market efficiency through subsample analysis.

House prices and credit cycles: the case of Cyprus

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 539-550
Author(s):  
Dario Pontiggia ◽  
Petros Stavrou Sivitanides
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess whether the rapid accumulation of bank deposits before the global financial crisis and their subsequent drastic reduction was the main driving force of the Cyprus house price cycle over the period 2006–2015.Design/methodology/approachTo this aim we estimate a three-equation model in which house prices are determined by housing loans, among other factors, and housing loans are determined by bank deposits. All equations are estimated using partial adjustment model specifications.FindingsOur findings indicate that housing loans, which capture the effect of credit availability on housing demand, had the smallest effect on house prices, thus providing little support to our proposition of a deposits-driven cycle in house prices.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of the study is the use of the housing loan stock instead of the actual volume of housing loans in each period due to lack of such data. As a result our econometric estimates may not accurately capture the magnitude of the effect of housing loans on house prices.Practical implicationsThe study has important practical implications for policy makers as it highlights the importance of availability of credit in supporting effective demand for housing during periods of economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the key role of house price increases in combination with the collateral effect in driving the house price cycle.Originality/valueThis is among the few studies internationally and the first study in Cyprus that attempts to link econometrically the credit and house price cycles that were caused by the global financial crisis.

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