Does corruption matter for economic development? Long run evidence from Bangladesh

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 350-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Habibullah Pulok ◽  
Moin Uddin Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bounds Test

Purpose Despite remarkable economic growth in the last two decades, corruption is a “way of life” in Bangladesh. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long run relationship between economic development and corruption in Bangladesh over 1984-2013. Design/methodology/approach This study employs autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test method to examine the long run relationship or cointegration between corruption and per capita real GDP in Bangladesh using annual time series data. International Country Risk Guide’s (ICRG) corruption index is used as the proxy to measure the degree of corruption. Findings The results of ARDL bounds test confirm that there exists a long run association between corruption and economic development in Bangladesh. Findings from the long run estimation provide evidence of negative impact of corruption on economic development. The negative value of the error correction term in the short model reinforces the existence of long run relationship. Originality/value Using multivariate time series approach, this paper contributes to corruption literature by investigating the long run relation between corruption and economic development in Bangladesh. Bangladesh would be able to accelerate its economic development further by reducing the level of corruption through institutional reforms and raising public awareness. Most importantly, government should focus on identifying and abolishing laws and programmes promoting corruption.

scholarly journals The impact of taxation on economic growth in India : A disaggregated approach using the ARDL bounds test to co-integration

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Subramanya Venkataraman ◽  
Arabi Urmi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ardl Bounds Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Impact

Most Governments in the world are striving to attain long term growth and economic development with taxation as one of the major tools. However, it is necessary to know which components of tax are to be targeted in order to attain economic growth. This study therefore disaggregated the various components of direct and indirect taxes and investigated their effects on Economic Growth in India using time series data from 1977-2015 and the ARDL Bounds test approach to co-integration. The study found that in the long run, among the components of direct taxes, personal income tax had no impact on economic growth whiles corporate income tax had a positive statistically significant impact on economic growth. Further on the indirect taxes, the study found that in the long run, whiles excise duty had no statistically significant impact on economic growth, customs duty had a positive statistically significant impact. The study therefore concluded that policy makers must be circumspect in targeting which tax components to be used as tools in influencing long term economic growth and economic development.

Impact of Foreign Capital on Economic Development in India: An Econometric Investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 766-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kalpana Sahoo ◽  
Narayan Sethi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Foreign Private Investment

The present study empirically investigates the long-run causal relationship between foreign capital and economic development in India by using the annual time-series data from 1990–1991 to 2013–2014. The study uses some selected macroeconomic variables such as per capita government expenditure on education (PcGEE, as an indicator of economic development), gross domestic product (GDP, as an indicator of economic growth), gross capital formation (GCF, as an indicator of domestic investment), official development assistance (ODA, as an indicator of foreign official inflows) and foreign direct investment (FDI, as an indicator of foreign private investment) for its empirical analysis. By using the cointegration test and the vector vector-error correction model (VECM) technique, this study finds that in the long run, domestic investment has shown a significant and positive impact on economic development, whereas, ODA, FDI and GDP have shown a significant negative impact on it. It concludes that domestic investment, foreign capital along with economic growth have a significant impact on economic development in India in long run. It suggests that the national developmental policy of India should focus on the productive utilization of both domestic and foreign capital along with it should give emphasis on effective transformation of growth benefits towards development process.

scholarly journals Linkages between External Reserves and Economic Performance in Nigeria, 1981-2018: Bounds Test and ARDL Approaches

2020 ◽  
pp. 44-62
Author(s):  
Ifeanyi A. Ojiako
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Test Technique ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bounds Test

Aims: This study seeks to explore a two-way relationship between Nigeria’s economic performance, measured by the GDP, and her stock of foreign reserves over time. Study Design: It uses secondary data - documented time series of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign exchange reserves (FER) – collected from various volumes of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The annual time series data cover a period of 38 years, from 1981-2018. Methodology: The time series properties of the variables were verified using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit roots’ test procedure. Also, the Bounds test technique was used to test for cointegration while the autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) and error correction models were estimated to analyze short- and long-run relationships between the variables. Relevant diagnostic tests were carried out to validate the resultant model estimates. Results: Results of unit roots’ test reveal both GDP and foreign reserves as I(1) series. Bounds test for the GDP model revealed an observed F-statistic (.421) that is less than the critical lower bound F-statistic (4.94) at P=.05 and cointegrating relationship was not confirmed. However, Bounds test for the foreign reserves revealed an observed F-statistic (6.445) lager than the critical upper bound F-statistic (5.73) at P=.05 and cointegration was established leading to specification of a long-run error correction model (ECM). Result of ARDL model estimation shows that only one-year-lag of GDP was significant (P=.05) and positive in explaining variations in the current GDP. Previous year’s values of both GDP and foreign reserves have positive influence on the long-run foreign exchange with over 81.8% explanatory power. The adjustment coefficient of the error correction equation is highly significant (P=.001) with the desired negative sign, implying that previous periods’ errors are correctable by adjustments in the subsequent periods, and convergence is attainable. Granger-Causality test result revealed a unidirectional causality that runs from GDP to the external reserves. Conclusion: The study establishes a long-run relationship between stock of foreign reserves and economic performance in Nigeria. The finding corroborates the view that a booming economy has the propensity to attract foreign direct investment thereby boosting the stock of the country’s foreign reserves. To attract more FDI in the critical sectors of the Nigerian economy, the government should create enabling and investment-friendly environment, implement policies and programmes capable of amplify ease-of-doing-business, and boost investors’ confidence in the economy.

China’s FDI inflow into Ethiopia; Does it have relation with bilateral trade?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hana Woldekidan Azmete ◽  
Kahsay Gerezihar Tsaedu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trade Partner ◽  
Integration Analysis

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze if a bilateral trade between two countries leads to a foreign direct investment (FDI) using a time series data spanning over the period 2000–2017. Design/methodology/approach The Engle-Granger method of co-integration analysis is applied to the data to estimate if China’s export to Ethiopia led to an inflow of FDI from China to Ethiopia over the long run. Findings The results indicated that bilateral trade (import from China) is a major determinant of Chinese FDI inflow to Ethiopia over the study period. Originality/value A number of studies have been conducted on the determinants of FDI in Ethiopia using time series data at different points of time. However, none of them tried to analyze what attracts FDI from an individual country. Accordingly, this study has concentrated on FDI from China and its relation with bilateral trade between China and Ethiopia as China is the number one FDI source and trade partner of Ethiopia.

INCOME EQUALITY IN A COURSE OF INDONESIAN DEVELOPMENT

2014 ◽  
Vol 59 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450006
Author(s):  
SUSUMU HONDAI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Income Equality ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Run Time

Indonesia has done remarkably well in the areas of both economic growth and poverty reduction. However, the economic situations differ significantly among Indonesian provinces. Some provinces have already developed well, while the rest have been left behind. The variation in the situations will generate a synthetic long-run time series data of economic development as a whole and enable us to find out when income equality starts to improve in a course of economic development.

scholarly journals Factors influencing fertilizer demand in developing countries: evidence from Malawi

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alhaji Bukar Mustapha ◽  
Rusmawati Said
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Fertilizer Demand

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine some factors that influence the intensity of fertilizer use in Malawi. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses Engle-Granger, Engle-Yoo three steps and autoregressive distributed lags (ARDLs) approaches to examine the long-run and the short-run dynamics among the variables using annual data from 1961 to 2006. Findings – The econometric results indicate that all the variables exert significance influence on the quantity of fertilizer demanded excluding population growth, while the results of the short-run model indicate that the responsiveness of fertilizer demand to all the variables is significant. Research limitations/implications – Although, this study has provided some helpful results in understanding the major factors responsible for low fertilizer consumption in the study but some time series data on important factors are lacking. Originality/value – The work is different from already existing literature in Malawi. The authors included subsidy and real gross domestic product to account for the effect of macroeconomic shocks and policies, which has not been accounted for by other related empirical studies. Moreover, this study used ARDLs techniques that can overcome the problem of insufficiently long time series data which is a significant contribution to the existing literature.

scholarly journals Institutional drivers, historical determinism, and economic development in Mozambique

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 767-789
Author(s):  
Luis Brites Pereira ◽  
John Manuel Luiz
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Complex Dynamics ◽  
Economic Institutions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the evolution of political and economic institutions, their persistence and interdependence and their effects on economic progress in Mozambique. Design/methodology/approach Using a unique data set, which has developed detailed long-run indices of institutional change in Mozambique from 1900 onwards, the research utilizes time-series econometrics to estimate cointegration relations and Vector Autoregressive and Vector Error Correction models, and also Granger causality, correlation and residual analysis when interpreting the estimation results. Findings It shows support for path dependence in political and economic institutions as well as the critical juncture theory and modernization hypothesis, and for webs of association between these institutions and economic development. It provides evidence of an equilibrium-dependent process, where history does matter (as do early conditions), and whose impact may differ depending on the nature of institutional arrangements. Various institutions created during colonial times have a bearing on the present state of institutions in Mozambique, as reflected in important continuities regarding the forms of political economy, among others. Originality/value The work contributes to existing research not only through the employment of a new set of institutional measures, which allows for a particularly long time-series investigation in a developing country setting, but also through its contribution to studies on modernization and critical junctures but in a longitudinal manner which allows for the exploration of complex dynamics embedded within a country’s particular political economy. The implications are far-reaching and carry importance beyond the academy given the pressure on policymakers to get things right because of the persistence of institutions and their consequences and the associated path dependency.

scholarly journals Pre-COVID-19 evaluation of external debt, corruption and economic growth in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebenezer Gbenga Olamide ◽  
Andrew Maredza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the object of the study. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between corruption, economic growth and external debt, and in the end proffer solutions to the problems arising therefrom.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed ARDL technique on time series data running from 1990 to 2019 with real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and external debt, external debt servicing, corruption, inflation and capital formation as regressors. Necessary tests that include unit root, cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSq, normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity were performed on the model.FindingsThe study shows that corruption, inflation and external debt servicing exert negative influences on economic growth while the effect of investment on growth was positive. External debt's effect in the short run was positive while its long-run effect on growth was negative. Among other things, the need to improve and strengthen public institutions in addition to targeting tax evaders and avoiders for increased government revenue were emphasized.Originality/valueThe study incorporates corruption into the country specific debt-GDP debate as against earlier studies that excluded corruption in their time series analysis or that were cross-country based. The authors also exposit the existing knowledge of the debt-GDP hypothesis before the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic. This is expected to serve as a precursor to subsequent studies on the rising debt of South Africa during and after the pandemic.

scholarly journals Good governance and crime rates in Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 308-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah ◽  
Badariah H.Din ◽  
Baharom Abdul Hamid
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
And Control

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to relate the quality of governance with crime in Malaysia. The study also identifies the best good governance tool to fight against crime in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses time-series data on crime rates and six measures of governance: voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. In this study the authors employed the popular autoregressive distributed lagged modeling approach to estimate the long-run model of crime and governance. Findings – The authors test the hypothesis that good governance lowers crime rates (total crime, violent and property crimes). The results suggest a negative relationship between crime rates and good governance in Malaysia. This suggests that good governance reduces crime rates in Malaysia. Research limitations/implications – The limitations of this study is the short time-series used in the analysis which is from 1996 to 2009. Practical implications – This study provides evidence that the practice of good governance, for example, lower corruption, good policing and judicial system can mitigate crime in Malaysia. Social implications – The implementation of good governance will protect property right of individuals, business sector and the society as a whole, and this will enhance prosperity of a nation. Originality/value – This study provide the first empirical evidence that linking between crime and good governance in Malaysia.

Exploring the dynamic contribution behavior of editors in wikis based on time series analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linghe Huang ◽  
Qinghua Zhu ◽  
Jia Tina Du ◽  
Baozhen Lee
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Observation Time ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Clustering Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Free Rider Problem ◽  
Series Analysis

Purpose – Wiki is a new form of information production and organization, which has become one of the most important knowledge resources. In recent years, with the increase of users in wikis, “free rider problem” has been serious. In order to motivate editors to contribute more to a wiki system, it is important to fully understand their contribution behavior. The purpose of this paper is to explore the law of dynamic contribution behavior of editors in wikis. Design/methodology/approach – After developing a dynamic model of contribution behavior, the authors employed both the metrological and clustering methods to process the time series data. The experimental data were collected from Baidu Baike, a renowned Chinese wiki system similar to Wikipedia. Findings – There are four categories of editors: “testers,” “dropouts,” “delayers” and “stickers.” Testers, who contribute the least content and stop contributing rapidly after editing a few articles. After editing a large amount of content, dropouts stop contributing completely. Delayers are the editors who do not stop contributing during the observation time, but they may stop contributing in the near future. Stickers, who keep contributing and edit the most content, are the core editors. In addition, there are significant time-of-day and holiday effects on the number of editors’ contributions. Originality/value – By using the method of time series analysis, some new characteristics of editors and editor types were found. Compared with the former studies, this research also had a larger sample. Therefore, the results are more scientific and representative and can help managers to better optimize the wiki systems and formulate incentive strategies for editors.

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