Herding behaviour and Islamic market efficiency assessment: case of Dow Jones and Sukuk market

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-41
Author(s):  
Emna Mnif ◽  
Bassem Salhi ◽  
Anis Jarboui
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Hurst Exponent ◽  
Efficiency Index ◽  
Parameter Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Efficiency Assessment ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Activity Types ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the Islamic stock and Sukuk market efficiency and focus on the presence of investor herding behaviour (HB) captured by Hurst exponent estimation. Design/methodology/approach The Hurst exponent was estimated with various methods. The authors studied the evolving efficiency of the “Dow Jones” indices from 1 January 2010 to 30 December 2016 using a rolling sample of the Hurst exponent. In addition, they used a time-varying parameter method based on the Hurst of delayed returns. After that, the robust Hurst method was considered. In the next step, the efficiency of the different activity types of Islamic bonds was studied using an efficiency index. Finally, the Hurst exponent estimates were applied to assess the presence of HB. Findings The results show that, firstly, there’s a strong correlation between the “DJIM” and “DJSI” prices and returns. Secondly, by using robust Hurst estimate, it is observed that the “DJIM” is the most efficient market. The Hurst exponent estimation results show that HB is more intensive in the Islamic stock market. These results indicate also the inexistence of this behaviour in the studied Sukuk market. Research limitations/implications Sukuk as Islamic financial assets is recent. Their relative time series are not long enough to apply the long memory approach. Furthermore, this work can be extended to study other Islamic financial markets. Practical implications Herding affects risk-return characteristics of assets and has an impact on asset pricing models. Practitioners are interested in understanding herding and its timing as it might create profitable trading opportunities. Social implications This work analyses the impact of Islamic principles on the financial markets and their ability to understand some behavioural biases. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by identifying the efficiency and the presence of HB with Hurst exponent estimation in Islamic markets.

Heuristic biases in investment decision-making and perceived market efficiency

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Maqsood Ahmad ◽  
Faisal Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Specific Investment ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature. Design/methodology/approach Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis. Findings The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency. Research limitations/implications The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation. Practical implications The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases. Originality/value The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.

Market efficiency and the global financial crisis: evidence from developed markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Sabbaghi ◽  
Navid Sabbaghi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Empirical Investigations

Purpose This study aims to provide one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Using the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) country indices as proxies for national stock markets, the study conducts a battery of econometric tests in assessing weak-form market efficiency for the developed markets. Findings The inferential outcomes are consistent among the different tests. Specifically, the study finds that the majority of developed markets are weak-form efficient while the USA is the sole equity market to be commonly diagnosed as weak-form inefficient across the different tests when using full period data spanning the January 2008-November 2011 period. However, when basing the analysis on one-year subsamples over the identical time period, this study fails to reject weak-form market efficiency for all of the developed markets and presents evidence consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis as described by Urquhart and Hudson (2013). When applying technical analysis for the case of the USA over the full study period, the results indicate that the return predictabilities can be exploited for some horizon of variable length moving average (VMA) trading rules. Originality/value This study provides one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis using an extended set of econometric tests. The study contributes to the existing body of empirical research that formally assesses the impact of a financial crisis on stock market efficiency and underlines the significance and relevance of examining market efficiency through subsample analysis.

Herding behavior in Islamic GCC stock market: a daily analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustapha Chaffai ◽  
Imed Medhioub
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quantile Regression Analysis ◽  
Herd Behaviour ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Quantile Regression Method

Purpose This paper aims to examine the presence of herd behaviour in the Islamic Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets following the methodology given by Chiang and Zheng (2010). Generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type models and quantile regression analysis are used and applied to daily data ranging from 3 January 2010 to 28 July 2016. Results show evidence of herd behaviour in the GCC stock markets. When the data are divided into down and up market periods, herd information is found to be statistically significant and negative during upward market periods only. These results are similar to those reported in some emerging markets such as China, Japan and Hong Kong, where stock returns perform more similarly during down market periods and differently during rising markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors present a brief literature on herd behaviour. Second, the authors provide some specificity of the GCC Islamic stock market, followed by the presentation of the methodology and the data, results and their interpretation. Findings The authors take into account the difference existing in market conditions and find evidence of herding behaviour during rising markets only for GCC markets. This result was confirmed after using the quantile regression method, as evidence of herding was observed only in highly extreme periods. Stock returns perform more similarly when market is down in Islamic GCC stock market. Research limitations/implications The research limitation consists in the fact that this work can be extended to compare the GCC stock markets with other markets in Asia such as Malaysia and Indonesia. Practical implications The principal implication consists in the fact that herding behaviour is limited in the GCC markets and Islamic finance can have an important contribution to moderate the behaviour in the financial markets. Social implications The work focusses on the role of ethics in the financial markets and their ability to reduce the impact of behavioural biases. Originality/value The paper studies the behaviour of investors in the Islamic financial markets and gives an idea about the importance of the behaviour in this particular market regarding its characteristics.

scholarly journals A time-varying approach to analysing fiscal policy and asset prices in South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste ◽  
Kanyane Matlou
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Marked Change ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to study the interplay of fiscal policy and asset prices in a time-varying fashion. Design/methodology/approach – Using South African data since 1966, the authors are able to study the dynamic shocks of both fiscal policy and asset prices on asset prices and fiscal policy based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. This enables the authors to isolate specific periods in time to understand the size and sign of the shocks. Findings – The results seem to suggest that at least two regimes exist in which expansionary fiscal policy affected asset prices. From the 1970s until 1990, fiscal expansions were associated with declining house and slightly increased stock prices. The majority of the first decade of 2000 had asset prices increasing when fiscal policy expanded. On the other hand, increasing asset prices reduced deficits for the majority of the sample period, while the recent financial crises had a marked change on the way asset prices affect fiscal policy. Originality/value – This is the first attempt in the literature of fiscal policy and asset prices to use a TVP-VAR model to not only analyse the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices, but also the feedback from asset prices to fiscal policy over time.

scholarly journals Behavior of financial markets efficiency during the financial market crisis: 2007 – 2009

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 473-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald Henry Mynhardt ◽  
Alexey Plastun ◽  
Inna Makarenko
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Hurst Exponent ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Market Analysis ◽  
Financial Market Crisis ◽  
Financial Market Analysis

This paper examines the behavior of financial markets efficiency during the recent financial market crisis. Using the Hurst exponent as a criterion of market efficiency we show that level of market efficiency is different for pre-crisis and crisis periods. We also classify financial markets of different countries by the level of their efficiency and reaffirm that financial markets of developed countries are more efficient than the developing ones. Based on Ukrainian financial market analysis we show the reasons of inefficiency of financial markets and provide some recommendations on their solution and thus improving the efficiency.

scholarly journals The impact of financial restatements on financial markets: a systematic review of the literature

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 1119-1147
Author(s):  
João L.F.R. Fragoso ◽  
Rúben M.T. Peixinho ◽  
Luís M.S. Coelho ◽  
Inna C.S. Paiva
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Academic Community ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Restatements ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss the most relevant issues related to the impact of financial restatements in the dynamics of financial markets and identify several research gaps to be investigated in future research. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is based on a systematic review of the literature described by Tranfield et al. (2003). The final sample includes 47 academic papers published from 1996 to 2019. Findings Papers in this domain discuss three main topics: how the market prices the announcement of a financial restatement; how financial restatements affect the announcing firm’s cost of capital and how financial restatements affect firms’ reputation. There are several issues to explore in future research, including whether financial restatements affect the dynamics of financial markets in Europe, whether the market fully and promptly assimilates the information content of a restatement, the role of financial analysts’ information disclosures in this process or how regulators may improve the way they provide investors with timely information about firms’ restating problems. Research limitations/implications There is always some degree of subjectivity in the definition of the keywords, search strings and selection criteria in a systematic review. These are all important aspects, as they delimitate the scope of the study and define the sample of papers to be reviewed. Practical implications The answers to the research questions identified in this paper may provide regulators with information to improve financial accounting and reporting standards and strengthen investors’ confidence in accounting information and the dynamics of financial markets. Originality/value This paper systematically reviews the relevant literature exploring the connection between financial restatements and the dynamics of financial markets. It contributes to the academic community by identifying several research questions that may impact the theory and practice related to accounting quality and capital markets.

Benchmarking the economic and environmental performance of water utilities: a comparison of frontier techniques

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Molinos-Senante ◽  
Alexandros Maziotis ◽  
Ramon Sala-Garrido
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Frontier Analysis ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Water Utilities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Frontier Analysis ◽  
Efficiency Assessment ◽  
Lower Variability ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to estimate and compare the efficiency of several water utilities using three frontier techniques. Moreover, this study estimates the impact of several qualities of service variables on water utilities’ performance.Design/methodology/approachThe paper utilizes three frontier techniques such as data envelopment analysis (DEA), stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and stochastic non-parametric envelopment of data (StoNED) to estimate efficiency scores.FindingsEfficiency scores for each methodological approach were different being on average, 0.745, 0.857 and 0.933 for SFA, DEA and StoNED methods, respectively. Moreover, it was evidenced that water leakage had a statistically significant impact on water utilities’ costs.Research limitations/implicationsThe choice of an adequate and robust method for benchmarking the efficiency of water utilities is very relevant for water regulators because it affects decision making process such as water tariffs and design incentives to improve the performance and quality of service of water utilities.Originality/valueThis paper evaluates and compares the performance of a sample of water utilities using three different frontier methods. It has been revealed that the choice of the efficiency assessment method matters. Unlike SFA and DEA, a lower variability was shown in the efficiency scores obtained from the StoNED method.

Political risks and financial markets: emerging vs developed economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bechir Ben Ghozzi ◽  
Hasna Chaibi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
The Political ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe authors provide a comparative analysis between emerging and developed financial markets in terms of the effects of political risks on stock market returns and volatility. The authors also examine whether this impact depends on the nature of political risks. Therefore, this study aims to detect which financial markets are the most profitable and the riskiest in terms of political risks.Design/methodology/approachThe authors investigate the impact of political risks on the excess stock market return and its conditional volatility using the generalized ARCH model for a sample of 46 developed and emerging markets over a period ranging from 1995 to 2019. In order to test how the nature of political risks affects equity excess returns and volatility differently in different markets, the authors employ (1) a composite political risk score, (2) the four subgroups of political risks as defined by Bekaert et al. (2005, 2014) and (3) the individual dimensions of political risks.FindingsThe findings indicate that the composite political risk is priced into both stock markets. The effect of political risks is positive for excess returns and negative for volatility. The authors show that the political risk leads to more volatility in developed markets. Nevertheless, the effect of individual components varies according to the market category.Practical implicationsThe authors provide a framework for predicting market returns and volatility using changes in the political risk of the country. The findings help investors make investment decisions based on the political decisions of governments. In other words, investors should consider political uncertainty when determining their expected earnings.Originality/valueThe authors engage monthly panel data methodology in terms of the political risk stock market relationship. In addition, the authors consider recent and very long data covering the period 1995–2019. Furthermore, this study combines three various political risk measures, and both equity returns and volatility.

scholarly journals The cross-market efficiency of the Italian derivatives market

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Izidin El Kalak ◽  
Robert Hudson
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Options Market ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Content Type ◽  
No Arbitrage ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The Cross ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to examine the cross-market efficiency of the FTSE/MIB index options contracts traded on the Italian derivatives market (IDEM) during a period including the financial crisis between 1st October 2007 and 31st December 2012 using daily option prices. Design/methodology/approach Two fundamental no-arbitrage conditions were tested: the lower boundary condition (LBC) and the put–call parity (PCP) condition while taking into account the role of transaction costs in mitigating the number of violations reported. Ex post tests of LBC and PCP revealed a low incidence of mispricing in this market. Furthermore, to check the robustness of the results obtained by the ex post tests, ex ante tests were applied to PCP violations occurring within a one-day lag. Findings The results showed a significant drop in the number of profitable arbitrage strategies. The findings obtained from all these tests generally support the cross-market efficiency of the Italian index options market during the sample period, though some violations were occasionally reported. Overall, the number and monetary value of the violations reported declined during the post-financial crisis period compared to those during the financial crisis period. Research limitations/implications This study can be extended to test the relationships between arbitrage profitability and other factors such as the moneyness (in the money, out of the money, at the money) of options and the maturity of options. Options market efficiency tests can be conducted such as call and put spreads, box spreads and put/call convexities (butterfly spreads). Originality/value There are several factors that influenced the decision to test the Italian index options market. First, the limited number of studies conducted on this market. Second, the fact that the two main studies on this market are relatively old, which makes it interesting to test the efficiency of this market with respect to a new set of data, taking into account the introduction of the Euro and the impact of the recent financial crisis on this market and whether the market efficiency hypothesis holds during the period of crisis. Third, it is important to consider the effect of the new rules applied to this market.

scholarly journals The Efficiency Assessment of Transmission Grid with Massive Clean Energy Based on Production Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 ◽  
pp. 03004
Author(s):  
Zhao Lang ◽  
Li Jian ◽  
Zhang Pengfei ◽  
Peng Dong ◽  
Liu Lixia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Power Transmission ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Efficiency Index ◽  
Energy Output ◽  
Operational Mode ◽  
Transmission Grid ◽  
Efficiency Assessment ◽  
The Impact

As the clean energy developing rapidly in recent years, the operational mode of power system was adjusted persistently because it was impacted by the randomness of clean energy output. Meanwhile, the efficiency of transmission grid was decreasing in certain level for the same reason. The production simulation model of power system was presented, and the power source which considering the output characteristics of different clean energy was described respectively. In additionally, the analytical method of efficiency assessment was proposed to assess the impact degree of clean energy. Moreover, the efficiency index of power transmission system programming was adopted to choose planning scheme. At last, three planning schemes of a power grid with massive clean energy are analyzed to confirm the production simulation model and assessing method.

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