Non-linear dynamics of employment, output and real wages in Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 554-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adian A. McFarlane ◽  
Anupam Das ◽  
Murshed Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
Real Wage ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Wage Growth ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Linear Dynamics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship among employment, real wage, and output growth in Canada. Design/methodology/approach – Using quarterly data from 1994q2 to 2012q3, this paper employs a vector autoregressive framework while allowing for the derivation of output from its historical maximum over the sample period to affect future output, employment, and real wage growth dynamics. Findings – There are three main findings: output growth is significant in predicting employment growth and vice versa; real wage growth neither Granger causes employment growth nor output growth, but employment growth Granger causes real wage growth; and non-linear dynamics, captured by the current depth regression (CDR) effect term, through the sign as well as the magnitude of output changes, are important in characterizing the evolution of the relationship among output, employment, and real wage growth. Practical implications – The findings of this research have significant implications for policy makers. Output and employment growth are important in forecasting each other in Canada. In contrast to the mainstream theory, real growth is insignificant in explaining the future dynamics of employment in Canada. Policies need to be formulated to encourage the growth of employment to ensure sustain output growth. Originality/value – This study examines empirically the real output, real wage, and employment link in Canada. This study uses the most recently revised GDP data arising from the 2012 Historical Revision of the Canadian System of National Accounts. The econometric methodology involves the standard vector autoregression (VAR) model to which the authors introduce non-linear dynamics through a term that controls for the deviation of output from its preceding historical maximum: the CDR effect.

The relationship between financial development and effectiveness of monetary policy: new evidence from ASEAN-3 countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulkefly Abdul Karim ◽  
Danie Eirieswanty Kamal Basa ◽  
Bakri Abdul Karim
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial System ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between financial development (FD) and monetary policy effectiveness (MPE) on output and inflation in ASEAN-3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines). Design/methodology/approach This study uses an open economy structural vector autoregressive model to generate MPE. Then, an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model is used to analyze the effect of FD on MPE across countries. Findings The findings revealed that FD plays a different role in MPE across countries. In Malaysia, a more developed financial system tends to reduce the MPE on output, whereas in Singapore, results show that the more developed financial system (stock market capitalization) tends to increase MPE on output. However, in the Philippines, the main results show that the effect of FD (liquid liabilities) upon MPE on output is depending on the policy variable (interest rates or money supply). Originality/value This paper fills this gap by providing the first study of ASEAN-3 countries in examining how effective is a monetary policy in response to the development of the financial market across the country. Second, this paper considers two FD indicators, namely, the banking sector and capital market development in investigating its effect on MPE on output and inflation. Third, the authors construct the MPE in each country using a structural (identified) VAR model by aggregating the response of output growth and inflation rate on monetary policy changes (interest rate and money supply) using impulse–response function. Regarding this, the results of this study provide new empirical evidence and insight into the long debate on the relationship between FD and the MPE.

The relationship between environmental degradation, energy use and economic growth in Nigeria: new evidence from non-linear ARDL

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau ◽  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Fatai Olarewaju Ogunlana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Partial Sums ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship among environmental degradation, energy use and economic growth, thus lending a voice to testing the relevance, or otherwise, of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach The authors rely on the secondary data obtained from World Bank’s World Development Indicators for Nigeria, between 1981 and 2014. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique is used after examining the unit root properties – using the augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron methods – and the long-run relationship – using the ARDL bounds approach to estimate the asymmetries in the effects of economic growth on the environment. Findings The findings of this study uphold the relevance of the EKC hypothesis in Nigeria, as the growth of GDP first reduces the environmental quality but raises it over time. Furthermore, the use of energy is found to deteriorate environmental quality, given that CO2 rises by 0.002% for a unit increase in the consumption of energy in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications A limitation to this research is the data coverage, which is just between 1981 and 2014, based on availability. One other limitation is the use of electric power consumption as a proxy for energy use (because of the difficulty in obtaining accurate data on energy consumption in Nigeria). Future research should, therefore, test different other proxies, to either agree with the findings or justify any deviation therefrom. Also, the use of up-to-date data is recommended as an improvement to this study, while a non-linear technique should be used on studies involving the panel of countries. Originality/value Many studies have examined this relationship by simply taking the square of GDP as a measure of its non-linear effect on the environment. The authors are one of the first who consider the asymmetric effect of economic growth on the environment through the non-linear ARDL technique. With this, the partial sums of positive and negative changes in economic growth on the environment are easily established.

scholarly journals Foreign finance, economic growth and CO2 emissions Nexus in OECD countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faris Alshubiri ◽  
Mohamed Elheddad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Relationship ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Threshold Point

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between foreign finance, economic growth and CO2 to investigate if the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) exists as an empirical evidence in 32 selected Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Design/methodology/approach This study used quantitative analysis to test two main hypotheses: H1 is the U-shape relationship between foreign finance and environment, and H2 is the N-shaped association between economic growth and environment. In doing so, this study used panel data techniques. The panel set contained 32 countries over the period from 1990 to 2015, with 27 observations for each country. This study applied a panel OLS estimator via fixed-effects control to address heterogeneity and mitigate endogeneity. Generalized method of moments (GMM) with fixed effects-instrumental variables (FE-IV) and diagnostic tests were also used. Findings The results showed that foreign finance and environmental quality have an inverted U-shaped association. The three proxies’ foreign investment, foreign assets and remittance in the first stages contribute significantly to CO2 emissions, but after the threshold point is reached, these proxies become “environmentally friendly” by their contribution to reducing CO2 emissions. Also, a non-linear relationship denotes that foreign investment in OECD countries enhances the importance, as a proxy of foreign finance has greater environmental quality than foreign assets. Additionally, empirical results show that remittances received is linked to the highest polluted levels until a threshold point is reached, at which point it then helps reduce CO2 emissions. The GMM and FE-IV results provide robust evidence on inverse U-shaped relationship, while the N-shaped relationship explains that economic growth produces more CO2 emissions at the first phase of growth, but the quadratic term confirms this effect is negative after a specific level of GDP is reached. Then, this economic growth makes the environment deteriorate. These results are robust even after controlling for the omitted variable issue. The IV-FE results indicate an N-shaped relationship in the OECD countries. Practical implications Most studies have used different economic indicators as proxies to show the effects of these indicators on the environment, but they are flawed and outdated regarding the large social challenges facing contemporary, socio-financial economic systems. To overcome these disadvantages, the social, institutional and environmental aspects of economic development should also be considered. Hence, this study aims to explain this issue as a relationship with several proxies in regard to environmental, foreign finance and economic aspects. Originality/value This paper uses updated data sets for analyzing the relationship between foreign finance and economic growth as a new proxy for pollution. Also, this study simulates the financial and environmental future to show their effect on investments in different OECD countries. While this study enhances the literature by establishing an innovative control during analysis, this will increase to add value. This study is among the few studies that empirically investigate the non-linear relationship between finance and environmental degradation.

Health investments and economic growth: a quantile regression approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisca Rosendo Silva ◽  
Marta Simões ◽  
João Sousa Andrade
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Childhood Development ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This study aims to analyse the relationship between health human capital and economic growth for a maximum sample of 92 countries over the period 1980-2010 taking into account countries’ heterogeneity by assessing how health variables affect different countries according to their position on the conditional growth distribution. Design/methodology/approach The paper estimates a growth regression applying the methodology proposed by Canay (2011) for regression by quantiles (Koenker, 1978, 2004, 2012a, 2012b) in a panel framework. Quantile regression analysis allows us to identify the growth determinants that present a non-linear relationship with growth and determine the policy implications specifically for underperforming versus over achieving countries in terms of output growth. Findings The authors’ findings indicate that better health is positively and robustly related to growth at all quantiles, but the quantitative importance of the respective coefficients differs across quantiles, in some cases, with the sign of the relationship greater for countries that recorded lower growth rates. These results apply to both positive (life expectancy) and negative (infant mortality rate, undernourishment) health status indicators. Practical implications Given the predominantly public nature of health funding, cuts in health expenditure should be carefully balanced even in times of public finances sustainability problems, particularly when growth slowdowns, as a decrease in the stock of health human capital could be particularly harmful for growth in under achievers. Additionally, the most effective interventions seem to be those affecting early childhood development that should receive from policymakers the necessary attention and resources. Originality/value This study contributes to the existing literature by answering the question of whether the growth effects of health human capital can differ in sign and/or magnitude depending on a country’s growth performance. The findings may help policymakers to design the most adequate growth promoting policies according to the behaviour of output growth.

Do factors influencing consumer home-buying attitudes explain output growth?

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1104-1115
Author(s):  
Hamid Baghestani ◽  
Ajalavat Viriyavipart
Keyword(s):  
Output Growth ◽  
Good Time ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Survey Question ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to focus on the relationship between attitudinal data from the long-running Michigan Surveys of Consumers and US real GDP growth. One survey question asks, “Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or a bad time to buy a house?” with the follow-up question “Why do you say so?” There are several factors for consumers to choose as reasons. Given the strong link between US housing market activity and business cycles, the authors ask whether the responses to the follow-up question explain the behavior of output growth. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ an augmented autoregressive model to investigate the relationship between output growth and the responses to the follow-up question for 1986–2007 and for 1986–2018, which includes the 2008 financial crisis. The authors follow the general-to-specific approach to obtain the final model estimates for interpretation. For a deeper analysis, the authors estimate the model using the responses of survey participants in the bottom 33 percent, middle 33 percent and upper 33 percent income categories, separately. While avoiding aggregation bias, this approach helps reveal important information embodied in the cross-sectional distribution of the data. Findings The follow-up question focuses on such factors as home prices, mortgage rates, houses as a good/bad investment, timing, uncertain future and affordability. The authors find that the majority of these factors chosen as reasons by consumers in the middle and upper 33 percent income categories explain the behavior of output growth. Among the factors chosen as reasons by consumers in the bottom 33 percent income category, only the mortgage rate and uncertain future explain output growth. Originality/value This study provides new insights into the usefulness of detailed consumer survey data in explaining the behavior of output growth and further underlines the usefulness of such measures across different income categories for revealing important information contained in the cross-sectional distribution of the data.

The effects of securitized asset portfolio specialization on bank holding company’s return, and risk

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 679-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth A. Tah ◽  
Oscar Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Fixed Effects Panel Regression ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Asset Portfolio ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Linear Manner

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of specialization of the securitized assets portfolio on banks’ performance and securitization risk. In doing so, the paper addresses two important issues. First, whether the efficient risk–return trade-off for securitized asset portfolios is consistent with the principles of diversification. Second, whether the relationship between bank-level returns and securitized assets portfolio specialization is non-linear in securitization risk. Design/methodology/approach This paper used the fixed-effects panel regression model on US bank holding company data for the period 2001:Q2 to 2014:Q1. Findings The results show that securitized assets portfolio specialization increases returns and also reduces securitization default risk; banks’ return and securitized assets specialization are dependent in a non-linear manner on banks’ securitization risk. Additionally, it was also found that lower bank performance leads to higher securitization risk. Originality/value This paper is of value by demonstrating that diversification (specialization) of securitized assets portfolio would achieve better bank performance in low-risk (high-risk) scenarios.

Manufacturing growth in India in recent years

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bishwanath Goldar
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
System Of National Accounts ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
Manufacturing Growth

Purpose Since the announcement of the new series of national accounts for India (with base 2011-12) in January 2015, there has been endless controversy over the new gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers, particularly in respect of growth of Indian manufacturing. The purpose of this paper is to highlight certain policy issues concerning India’s system of national accounts, in the context of the methodological changes made in the new national accounts series, and to check the validity of the view held by some critics that the new series has significantly overstated the growth rate in real gross value added in manufacturing in recent years. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a brief, selective review of the literature that has emerged on the new series of national accounts. A close look is taken at the available data on real gross value added growth in Indian manufacturing in conjunction with data on growth in India’s exports and in outstanding non-food commercial bank credit. Analysis of these data is undertaken with the help of a table and some graphs. Findings The paper finds that there is not enough basis to believe and argue that the GDP estimates in the new series of national accounts significantly overstate the true manufacturing sector growth in India. Originality/value Rates of manufacturing output growth in recent years indicated by the new series of national accounts for India are subjected to careful scrutiny by contrasting yearly growth rates in manufacturing output with those in India’s non-oil exports and in outstanding non-food commercial bank credit.

scholarly journals Credit constraints and structure: a theoretical model of extractivism and slow-growth dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 538-554
Author(s):  
LEOPOLDO GÓMEZ-RAMÍREZ ◽  
NESTOR GARZA
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Credit Constraints ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Credit Crunch ◽  
Formal Sector ◽  
Formal Employment ◽  
Extractive Sector ◽  
The Relationship

ABSTRACT We develop a theoretical model that explains the relationship between credit constraints and economic growth in the context of a three-sector economy, including an “extractive” sector. The model belongs in the structuralist tradition and it is inspired by the Colombian economy. In contrast to neoclassic development economics models, we prove that: 1) relaxing the credit crunch would foster formal sector growth but it may nevertheless not imply formal employment growth; and 2) the economy can converge to a pattern where the extractive sector increases while the formal one shrinks.

Does the composition of government expenditure matter for Eastern Caribbean economies’ long-run sectoral output growth?

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-14
Author(s):  
Ankie Scott-Joseph ◽  
Treshauna Felecia Turner
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Eastern Caribbean ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Total Government Expenditure

PurposeThis study takes a disaggregated approach to investigate the impacts of long-run GDP on changes in total government expenditure in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) economies. An understanding of the relationship between changes in total government expenditure and GDP (by sector categories) is expected to provide a working tool to understand the growth debt nexus of Caribbean countries. The purpose of the paper is to use an auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) to examine and analyse short- and long-run dynamics of disaggregated approach to both output and government expenditure in a dynamic model to identify the growth in the Eastern Caribbean Countries.Design/methodology/approachIn an attempt to examine the long-run dynamics, data for the period 1970-2015 were used in an ARDL and ECM framework. The authors examine the long-run GDP impacts of changes in total government expenditure and in the shares of different spending categories for the ECCU countries to establish and analyse short and long-run dynamics.FindingsThe results suggest that total fiscal expenditure and disaggregated expenditure including debt services have both positively and negatively contributed to economic growth in the agriculture, manufacturing and mining sectors. Among others, the study found that high national debt in the region resulted primarily from increases in government expenses and diminishing income sources.Originality/valueThis paper is the first to take a disaggregated approach to investigate the relationship between economic growth and government expenditure in the Eastern Caribbean States. The authors’ empirical results suggest that debt servicing reduces economic growth both in the short and long run. The greatest impact being felt in the mining and manufacturing sectors, namely, 1 per cent increase in debt service will bring about 7.90 and 1.67 per cent decrease in economic growth. These results offer fairly strong support to the view that expenditure share variables can weaken sectoral growth, and hence force the overall growth to decline.

Research on a non-linear calibration method for dynamometer

Sensor Review ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-173
Author(s):  
Zhang Jun ◽  
Chang Qingbing ◽  
Ren Zongjin
Keyword(s):  
Force Measurement ◽  
Load Sharing ◽  
Calibration Method ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Linear Calibration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multiple Parameters ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Force Calibration ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to solve the problem that the relationship between loading forces, which were applied at different positions on a plane, and output values of load-sharing dynamometer is non-linear. Design/methodology/approach First, the analytical model of ISPM (isodynamic surface proportional mapping method) method, which is used to calibrate dynamometer, was established. Then, a series of axial force calibration tests were performed on a load-sharing dynamometer at different loading positions. Finally, according to output values, calibration forces at different loading positions were calculated by ISPM method, and corresponding distribution histogram of calibration force error was generated. Findings The largest error between calculated force and standard force is 2.92 per cent, and the probability of calculated force error within 1 per cent is 91.03 per cent, which verify that the ISPM method is reliable for non-linear calibration of dynamometers. Originality/value The proposed ISPM method can achieve non-linear calibration between measured force and output signal of load-sharing dynamometer at different positions. In addition, ISPM method can also solve some complex non-linear problems, such as prediction of plane cutting force under the influence of multiple parameters, the force measurement of multi-degree-of-freedom platform and so on.

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