What does Google say about credit developments in Brazil?

In this paper multivariate State Space (SS) models are used to evaluate and forecast household loans in Brazil, taking into account two Google search terms in order to identify credit demand: financiamento (type of loan used to finance goods) and empréstimo (a more general type of loan). Our framework is coupled with nonlinear features, such as Markov-switching and threshold point. We explore these nonlinearities to build identification strategies to disentangle the supply and demand forces which drive the credit market to equilibrium over time. We also show that the underlying nonlinearities significantly improves the performance of SS models on forecasting the household loans in Brazil, particularly in short-term horizons.

Threshold Effect of Economic Growth on Energy Intensity—Evidence from 21 Developed Countries

Based on threshold regression models, this paper analyzes the effect of economic growth on energy intensity by using panel data from 21 developed countries from 1996 to 2015. Results show that a 1% increase in GDP per capita can lead to a 0.62–0.78% reduction in energy intensity, implying economic growth can significantly reduce energy intensity. The extent of the reduction in energy intensity varies depending on the economic development stages represented by key influencing factors including energy mix in consumption, urbanization, industrial structure, and technological progress. Specifically, the reduction in energy intensity due to economic growth can be enhanced with relatively more renewable energy consumption and more urban population until a threshold point, where the enhancement disappears. On the other hand, the extent of the energy intensity reduction due to economic growth can be weakened with relatively more tertiary industry activities and more research and development (R&D) investment in an economy until a threshold point, where the weakening cannot continue. However, compared to the early stages represented by the low ends of renewable energy consumption, urban population, tertiary industry activities, and R&D investment, the later stages represented by the high ends of these key factors after a threshold show the weakened effect of economic growth on the decline of energy intensity. Hence, when an economy is well-developed, policy makers are advised to put fewer expectations on the role of economic growth to reduce energy intensity, while pursuing relatively cleaner energy, greater urbanization, more tertiary industry activities, and advanced technologies.

Finding the Subway Disruption Regimes of Switching Subway to Uber in Toronto

The evolving relationship between public transit and transportation network companies (TNCs), such as Uber and Lyft, is of great interest to government agencies and has seen much critical attention in the academic literature. In this paper, we focus on the demand for TNC trips (also known as ride-hailing trips) during the disruption of the subway service. We combined a detailed dataset of Uber trips made in Toronto, Canada during the period September 2016 to August 2018 and subway disruption data provided by the Toronto Transit Commission. These data were used to examine the question: how long are subway users willing to wait during a disruption before switching modes? This question was framed as a threshold point, and an innovative structural threshold regression model was used to obtain an answer. Controlling for environmental and location-specific factors in the model, it was revealed that subway users in Toronto tend to switch to Uber after a service delay of as little as 3 min, with an average result of 7 min and an upper bound of 12 min.

Financial Inclusion and Firms Growth in Manufacturing Sector: A Threshold Regression Analysis in Selected Asean Countries

This paper examines the effect of financial inclusion on the firm growth of the manufacturing sector (513 firms) in selected ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam) using a cross-section threshold estimation technique. The levels of financial inclusion across firms were measured based on the distribution of financial services (access to credit). The main findings revealed that there is a non-monotonic effect of financial inclusion on the firm’s growth. These findings show that the impact of financial inclusion on firm growth in the manufacturing sector is significantly positive below a threshold point, and turns to significantly negative after a certain threshold point has been reached. These new findings suggest that manufacturing firm owners and banking institutions should deepen their financial inclusion efforts, and limit the distribution of credit access within the optimum value or threshold level in promoting the growth of the firm.

Axial-tensor Meson family at $$T\ne 0$$

The mass and decay constants of $$\rho _2,~\omega _2$$ ρ 2 , ω 2 and a missing member in the $$ 2^{--} $$ 2 - - nonet along with their first excited states are analyzed by the Thermal QCD sum rules approach, including QCD condensates up to dimension five. Mass and decay constant values of these mesons are stable from $$T=0$$ T = 0 up to $$T \cong 120 ~\mathrm {MeV}$$ T ≅ 120 MeV . However, after this threshold point, our numerical analyses indicates that they begin to diminish with increasing temperature. When we compare the hadronic parameters with their vacuum values, masses of these mesons and their first excited states decrease between (1–13%) from the PDG data and (10–26%) for the decay constants. However they diminish in the interval of (9–26%) and (2–34%) respectively with regards to Regge Trajectory Model data. We expect our numerical results will be confirmed by future heavy-ion collision experiments.

KETERANGKUMAN KEWANGAN DAN PERTUMBUHAN FIRMA DI MALAYSIA DAN INDONESIA: ANALISIS REGRESI AMBANG (Financial Inclusion and Firm Growth in Malaysia and Indonesia: A Threshold Regression Analysis)

Kertas ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji kesan keterangkuman kewangan terhadap pertumbuhan firma dalam kalangan firma kecil, sederhana dan besar (275 buah firma) di negara Malaysia dan Indonesia dengan menggunakan teknik penganggaran regresi ambang keratan rentas. Tahap keterangkuman kewangan diukur berdasarkan agihan perkhidmatan kewangan merentasi firma iaitu akses kepada kredit. Keputusan kajian mendapati wujud kesan tidak monotonik dalam hubungan antara keterangkuman kewangan dan pertumbuhan firma, yang mana kesan keterangkuman kewangan terhadap pertumbuhan firma hanya signifikan dan positif di bawah tahap ambang. Implikasi dasar daripada kajian ini mencadangkan pemilik firma dan institusi kewangan perlu mengekang pengagihan akses kepada kredit supaya berada dalam lingkungan nilai optimum atau tahap ambang untuk menjamin pertumbuhan firma. Abstract This paper aims to investigate the effects of financial inclusion on the firms’ growth from selected small, medium and large firms (275 firms) in Malaysia and Indonesia countries using a cross section threshold estimation technique. The levels of financial inclusion across firms were measured based on the distribution of financial services across the selected firms (access to credit). This paper reveals that there is a non-monotonic effect in the financial inclusion-firm’s growth nexus in which the impact of financial inclusion on firm growth is significantly positive below a certain threshold point. The main finding suggest that the firms’ owners and banking institutions should restrict the distribution of credit access within the optimum value or threshold level in promoting the growth of the firms. Keywords: Financial inclusion; firm growth; threshold estimation.