scholarly journals Monetary and macroprudential policies in the presence of external shocks: evidence from an emerging economy

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Lubis ◽  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Joseph G. Nellis
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Reserve Requirements ◽  
Bayesian Techniques ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Complementary Role ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper examines the impact of using the reserve requirements, combined with foreign exchange (FX) intervention, as key instruments in an inflation-targeting framework.Design/methodology/approachIn the context of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework and using Bayesian techniques, the authors estimate a model for the Indonesian economy using quarterly data spanning the period 2005Q2–2019Q4.FindingsThe reserve requirement is found to assume a complementary role to that of the interest rate policy and FX intervention when used to stabilise the macroeconomy.Originality/valueThis paper provides a benchmark for other emerging countries that consider adopting the inflation targeting framework and impose an FX intervention as part of their monetary policy.

THE INTERNATIONAL IMPACT OF MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doriane Intungane
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

The recent financial crisis started a global debate on the role of financial policies, which led to financial system reforms in many countries. These reforms mainly consisted of increasing the usage of macroprudential policies. This dissertation seeks to understand whether macroprudential policies in financially integrated countries reduced their vulnerability to the impact of external shocks. Chapter 2 empirically examines the impact of macroprudential policies on cross-border bilateral credit growth. Capital requirements and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, in 15 lending countries and 34 borrowing countries between 2000 and 2014, are used in the analysis. The results show that in some countries, the increase of capital requirements is not effective in reducing international credit flows during periods of financial vulnerability. The impact of tightening LTV ratios is more heterogeneous across countries because LTV ratios are mainly used in the housing sector and not all countries change their LTV ratio frequently. Hence, cooperation across countries is necessary but also countries should make sure that the change of macroprudential policies targeting lenders and those targeting borrowers complement each other to avoid international leakages. Chapter 3 analyzes issues related to the international spillover of macroprudential policies through international banking activities using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous and time-varying macroprudential policies. The results show that a combination of capital requirements and LTV ratios is effective in reducing credit growth despite the existence of cross-border banking activities and heterogeneous implementation of capital requirements across countries. In addition, international coordination of capital requirements is also effective in reducing credit growth but less effective than a combination of capital requirements and LTV ratios. Chapter 4 focuses on the role of countercyclical LTV ratios in reducing transmission of shocks when international investors, holding domestic and foreign assets, face collateral constraint. Using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the analysis demonstrates that time-varying LTV ratios can reduce the transmission of shocks.

scholarly journals The impact of Musharakah financing on the monetary policy in the Islamic economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Hatem Adela
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to formulating the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, using the development of the conventional economics, theoretical and mathematical methods. Design/methodology/approach The study based on the inductive and mathematical methods to contribute to economic theory within the methodological framework for Islamic Economics, by using the return rate of Musharakah rather than the interest rate in influence the economic activity and monetary policy. Findings Via replacement, the concept of the interest rate by the return rates of Musharakah. It concludes that the central bank can control the monetary policy, economic activity and the efficient allocation of resources by using the return rates of Musharakah through the framework of Islamic economy. Practical/implications The study is a contribution to formulate the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, where it investigates the impact of return rates of Musharakah on the money market and monetary policy, by the mathematical methods used in the conventional economy. Also, the study illustrates the importance of further studies that examine the methodological framework for Islamic Economics. Originality/value The study aims to contribute to formulating the Islamic economic theory, through the return rate of Musharakah financing instead of the interest rate, and its effectiveness of the monetary policy. As well as reformulating the concepts of the investment function, the present value and the marginal efficiency rate of investment according to the Islamic economy approach.

scholarly journals The Basel accords, capital reserves, and agricultural lending

2019 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary W. Brester ◽  
Myles J. Watts
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Reserve Requirements ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Capital Reserves

Purpose The safety and soundness of financial institutions has become a leading worldwide issue because of the recent global financial crisis. Historically, financial crises have occurred approximately every 20 years. The worst financial crisis in the last 75 years occurred in 2008–2009. US regulatory efforts with respect to capital reserve requirements are likely to have several unintended consequences for the agricultural lending sector—especially for smaller, less-diversified (and often, rural agricultural) lenders. The paper discusses these issues. Design/methodology/approach Simulation models and value-at-risk (VaR) criteria are used to evaluate the impact of capital reserve requirements on lending return on equity. In addition, simulations are used to calculate the effects of loan numbers and portfolio diversification on capital reserve requirements. Findings This paper illustrates that increasing capital reserve requirements reduces lending return on equity. Furthermore, increases in the number of loans and portfolio diversification reduce capital reserve requirements. Research limitations/implications The simulation methods are a simplification of complex lending practices and VaR calculations. Lenders use these and other procedures for managing capital reserves than those modeled in this paper. Practical implications Smaller lending institutions will be pressured to increase loan sector diversification. In addition, traditional agricultural lenders will likely be under increased pressure to diversify portfolios. Because agricultural loan losses have relatively low correlations with other sectors, traditional agricultural lenders can expect increased competition for agricultural loans from non-traditional agricultural lenders. Originality/value This paper is novel in that the authors illustrate how lender capital requirements change in response to loan payment correlations both within and across lending sectors.

scholarly journals Macroprudential Policy in a Heterogeneous Environment—An Application of Agent-Based Approach in Systemic Risk Modelling

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa ◽  
Mateusz Pipień
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Rbc Models ◽  
The Impact

Assessment of welfare effects of macroprudential policy seems the most important application of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework of macro-modelling. In particular, the DSGE-3D model, with three layers of default (3D), was developed and used by the European Systemic Risk Board and European Central Bank as a reference tool to formally model the financial cycle as well as to analyze effects of macroprudential policies. Despite the extreme importance of incorporating financial constraints in Real Business Cycle (RBC) models, the resulting DSGE-3D construct still embraces the representative agent idea, making serious analyses of diversity of economic entities impossible. In this paper, we present an alternative to DSGE modelling that seriously departs from the assumption of the representativeness of agents. Within an Agent Based Modelling (ABM) framework, we build an environment suitable for performing counterfactual simulations of the impact of macroprudential policy on the economy, financial system and society. We contribute to the existing literature by presenting an ABM model with broad insight into heterogeneity of agents. We show the stabilizing effects of macroprudential policies in the case of economic or financial distress.

Office properties through the interest cycle

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 432-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Hahn ◽  
Verena Keil ◽  
Thomas Wiegelmann ◽  
Sven Bienert
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Economic Sustainability ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Interest Level ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of changes in macro-economic conditions going forward, focusing on a change in interest policy, with regard to office letting and investment markets. Design/methodology/approach – For this analysis, the authors constructed two vector-autoregressive models, measuring the response of office rents and capital values in Germany to economic impulses. The authors isolated effects of unique exogenous positive shocks (such as economic growth or interest leaps) on the basis of impulse-response functions in order to understand the complex dynamic interdependence between several economic factors and office performance changes. Findings – The authors initially find a moderately positive development of both office performance components even although supposing an increase in interest level. In terms of capital values, the authors find that they do not drop before 1.5 years after the interest impulse and the negative effect peaks after approximately nine quarters. Furthermore, the reaction to a change in GDP is significantly lower than a reaction to the interest rate, but impulses in other macro-economic factors provoke stronger reactions. Finally, the authors find that a positive interest shock leads to a comparably robust development and economic sustainability in office rents throughout a consideration horizon of 24 quarters. Research limitations/implications – Estimations are based on observations from a time period containing two rather extraordinary market phases. As they included bubble growth and the low-interest environment, the authors find that certain patterns in both phases neutralize each other when looking at the total time frame. The authors constructed sub-samples to compensate for this. However, the research does not provide to what extent the measured impulse-responses stay forecast-proof, if the market moves into a phase of short-term normalization. Practical implications – This paper provides insights into estimated impulse-response patterns on a hypothetical sudden increase of several macro-economic determinants. On this basis, the probable reaction to an increase in, for example, the interest rate level can be approximated. Also, the paper provides a fundamental understanding of the economic sustainability of German office properties in terms of their value and rent performance in the case of exogenous shocks. Originality/value – This paper contains the first vector-autoregressive, impulse-response analysis of office markets in Germany in the context of several macro-economic drivers, including the interest level. It delivers insights into market reaction patterns on the basis of simulated one standard deviation shocks in all included variables.

scholarly journals The Effectiveness of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Ukraine since the Transition to Inflation Targeting

2019 ◽  
pp. 19-37
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Zholud ◽  
Volodymyr Lepushynskyi ◽  
Sergiy Nikolaychuk
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of monetary transmission channels in Ukraine since the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) transitioned to inflation targeting and after the central bank established its new approach to monetary policy implementation. The authors conclude that the central bank has sufficient control over short-term interest rates in the interbank market and that it uses them to influence other financial market indicators. At the same time, further transmission via the interest rate channel is constrained by weak lending and the banking system’s slow post-crisis recovery. The exchange rate channel remains the most powerful avenue of monetary transmission. After the NBU switched to a floating exchange rate and an active interest rate policy, its key rate became a means of influencing exchange rates. The exchange rate channel’s leading role is expected to gradually decrease but remains important, as is typical for small open economies.

Effectiveness and channels of macroprudential policies: lessons from the Euro area

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyan Zhang ◽  
Thierry Tressel
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The design of a macro-prudential framework and its interaction with monetary policy has been at the forefront of the policy agenda since the global financial crisis. However, most advanced economies (AEs) have little experience using macroprudential policies. As a result, relatively little is known empirically about macroprudential instruments’ effectiveness in mitigating systemic risks in these countries, about their channels of transmission, and about how these instruments would interact with monetary policy. This paper aims to fill in the gap. Design/methodology/approach The authors develop a new approach using the euro area bank lending survey to assess the effectiveness of macro-prudential policies in containing credit growth and house price appreciation in mortgage markets. Estimation is performed under the panel regressions (OLS, GLS) and panel VAR setup. Endogeneity issues arising from measures of macro-prudential policies are addressed by introducing GMM estimation and various instruments. Findings The authors find instruments targeting the cost of bank capital most effective in slowing down mortgage credit growth, and that the impact is transmitted mainly through price margins, the same banking channel as monetary policy. Limits on loan-to-value ratios are also effective, especially when monetary policy is excessively loose. Originality/value With limited data on macroprudential policy measures in the AEs, this paper proposed a new methodology of using answers from bank lending survey as proxies to assess the effectiveness of specific macroprudential measures and their transmission channels.

scholarly journals Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (3) ◽  
pp. 699-738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton Korinek ◽  
Alp Simsek
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Insurance Decisions

We investigate the role of macroprudential policies in mitigating liquidity traps. When constrained households engage in deleveraging, the interest rate needs to fall to induce unconstrained households to pick up the decline in aggregate demand. If the fall in the interest rate is limited by the zero lower bound, aggregate demand is insufficient and the economy enters a liquidity trap. In this environment, households' ex ante leverage and insurance decisions are associated with aggregate demand externalities. Welfare can be improved with macroprudential policies targeted toward reducing leverage. Interest rate policy is inferior to macroprudential policies in dealing with excessive leverage. (JEL D14, E23, E32, E43, E52, E61, E62)

“Corruption premium” on municipal borrowing cost: the case of Spanish Mayors

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 392-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Bastida ◽  
María-Dolores Guillamón ◽  
Bernardino Benito ◽  
Ana-María Ríos
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of mayors’ corruption on the municipal interest rate set by lenders. Design/methodology/approach The sample consists of a panel data for all the Spanish cities with population over 50,000 for 2002–2013 (130 municipalities). In line with previous literature and the structure of the panel data, the authors use a generalized method of moments equation to the main model and three robustness checks. Findings The results, robust to different specifications, indicate that banks do not take mayors’ corruption as a significant risk component of the municipal solvency. The data show a “corruption premium” ranging from −1 to 33 basis points, which aligns with the size of the “corruption premium” found by the literature, but the significance is low. This finding is connected, on the one hand, with the rigid, thorough Spanish legal framework ruling municipal financial management, and on the other hand, with the characteristics of mayors’ corruption. Robust evidence shows that key financial indicators influence interest rates: current saving, with a strong influence, and level of indebtedness, to a lesser extent. Besides, more populated cities pay lower interest rates. Research limitations/implications The main limitation stems from the calculation of interest rate, because but sharp debt changes may decrease the accuracy. Practical implications The data prove that banks value this surplus as a sign of solvency and set lower interest rates. Considering that this financial indicator is key for setting the interest rate, as a point for practitioners, current saving should be monitored by the municipal financial officer, as a way to reduce the financial cost. Besides, legislation should consider current saving as a benchmark to set balanced budget rules or to establish conditions for municipalities to get into greater indebtedness. Originality/value This is the first research on municipal interest rate premium due to corruption in Spain.

scholarly journals The interest rate sensitivity of output and prices with different levels of financial inclusion

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-130
Author(s):  
Huong Thi Truc Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Panel Vector Autoregressions ◽  
Different Levels

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the interest rate (IR) sensitivity of output and prices in developing economies with different levels of financial inclusion (FI) for the period 2007Q1–2017Q4. Design/methodology/approach By using the PCA method to construct an FI index for each country, the author divides the sample into two groups (high and low FI levels). Then, with panel vector autoregressions on per group estimated to assess the strength of the impulse response of output and prices to IR shock. Findings The findings show that the impact of an IR shock on output and inflation is greater in economies with a higher degree of FI. Practical implications The finding indicates the link between FI and the effectiveness of IRs as a monetary policy tool, thereby helping Central banks to have a clearer goal of FI to implement their monetary policy. Originality/value This study emphasizes the important role of FI in the economy. From there, an FI solution is integrated into the construction and calculation of its impact on monetary policy, improving the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, contributing to price stability and sustainable growth.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document