Remittances-inflation nexus in South Asia: an empirical examination

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hem C. Basnet ◽  
Ficawoyi Donou-Adonsou ◽  
Kamal Upadhyaya
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether remittances induce inflation in South Asian countries, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach This study uses panel cointegration and Pooled Mean Group techniques covering from 1975 to 2017 to estimate the long-run and the short-run effect of remittances on inflation. Findings The estimated results suggest that the inflationary impact of remittances in South Asia depends on the time length. The inflow tends to lower inflation in the short run, whereas it increases in the long run. The findings highlight the regional peculiarity in the impact of remittances on the price level. The results are statistically significant and are confirmed by the Mean Group estimation as well. Originality/value Most past studies investigating the nexus between remittances and inflation in the South Asian context examine either these countries individually or include them all in a pool of big cross-sections. This study contributes to the literature by addressing this void. The South Asian countries should not generalize the earlier findings on the link between remittance inflows and inflation, as the short-run effect is different from the long run. Thus, these countries would be better off designing long-run policies that are different from the short run.

Does inward remittance lead to export performance in South Asian countries?

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nihar Ranjan Jena ◽  
Narayan Sethi
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether inward remittance leads to export performance in selected South Asian economies over the time period of 1993–2017. Design/methodology/approach The stationarity of the variables is checked by Levin, Lin and Chu t, Breitung t-stat., Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat., ADF–Fisher and Philips–Perron–Fisher panel unit root tests. Panel Granger Causality is used to verify the short-run causality. Pedroni’s, Kao’s and Johansen–Fisher panel cointegration approaches are employed to examine the long-run relationship among the variables. Panel VECM is used to confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Findings Panels FMOLS and DOLS show that remittance inflows have negatively impacted the export performance of the selected South Asian countries during the study period. Granger Causality and VECM test confirm the existence of short-run and long-run relationship among the variables. The authors conclude that inward remittance is affecting export performance negatively during the study period. Furthermore, inward remittances occupy a major source of development finance for selected South Asian countries. Originality/value The study uses a dynamic macroeconomic modeling framework to assess the inward remittance on export performance in South Asian countries. Taking into account the diversity of the level of growth experienced by the five countries in the Asian region, the study uses an appropriate regression technique, i.e. panel dynamic OLS whose results are robust. As exports are a proven way to further economic growth, this study fills a vital gap in the literature by ascertaining the degree of impact of remittances in influencing outbound exports from the South Asian region.

Does trade interdependency lead linkages between stock markets? A case of South Asian countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 490-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test the dynamic linkages among the stock markets of four South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) in the backdrop of trade interdependency. Design/methodology/approach Listed indices are used to serve the proxy of stock markets of four countries for the period: January 2000–December 2018. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality techniques in multivariate frameworks while focusing on intraregional trade as an exogenous factor for testing the long- and short-run causality in the given data set, hence raising the quality of statistical inference. Findings The results highlight that India and Pakistan are net exporters to the South Asian region, while Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are net importers from the region. While testing the stock markets linkages, the expanded intraregional trade volumes (exports plus imports) have occurred with the significant cointegration of stock markets of India and Pakistan with the other stock markets in the long run. In the short run, the stock markets of India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka report bidirectional causality without having significant spillovers of intraregional trade on the stock prices. Research limitations/implications The study relies on the multivariate techniques with stock prices and regional trade share as the exogenous variables. Further the regulatory, political and economic conditions of sample countries are fundamentally different which in turn affect their degree of trade interdependency and integration between the stock markets. Practical implications Nonsignificant cointegration of the stock markets of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh highlights the possibility of portfolio diversification in the long run, while the significant bidirectional causalities between the stock markets highlight the lesser degree of portfolio diversifications in the short run. Originality/value Pioneer efforts are made to examine the dynamic linkages between the South Asian stock markets while focusing on regional trade interdependency. The results provide new insight in the dynamics of stock returns of South Asian stock markets in the backdrop of intraregional trade.

Factors affecting level of unemployment in South Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiza Shabbir ◽  
Shazia kousar ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Alam
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship between economic variables and the unemployment rate in South Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachA panel Vector Error Correction (VECM) model is used to establish the long-run and the short-run relationship between unemployment rate and selected economic variables. Data were collected from WDI, WGI and FDSD for the year's 1994–2016.FindingsThe finding of the study showed a negative and significant relationship at the 5% level of significance among governance, internet users, mobile cellular subscriptions, fixed broadband subscriptions and human capital with an unemployment rate of South Asian economies. On the other hand, financial activity (credit) and population growth have a positive and significant relationship with the unemployment rate.Research limitations/implicationsIn the light of our findings clear that employment problems can only be created if the government does not put in place adequate measures to control the population and allocate resources equitably, giving a sense of belonging to all citizens. Therefore, to provide the controlled population with the necessary employment opportunities, it is necessary to allocate resources efficiently and to launch projects aimed at creating jobs.Practical implicationsTransparency or merit is the basis of good governance and the very first step to achieving the goal of good governance is to fight against corruption. It provides a complete justification for providing good quality management records, financial controlling and managerial systems.Originality/valueThe connections between governance and unemployment are complex and need to be studied in a detailed manner. There is the absence of literature that strongly interfaces good governance to unemployment; the fundamental work in this regard is Farid (2015). They locate a solid relationship between good governance and improving external debt situation by in Pakistan a time series analysis. But there is no research in the context of South Asian countries between governance and unemployment.

Climate change and women in South Asia: a review and future policy implications

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-166
Author(s):  
Sangram Kishor Patel ◽  
Gopal Agrawal ◽  
Bincy Mathew ◽  
Sunita Patel ◽  
Biswajit Mohanty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future Policy

Purpose South Asian region is a focal point owing to its vulnerabilities to climate-sensitive diseases, dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods, projected levels of crop decline in the region, and high rates of poverty and malnutrition. Women are particularly vulnerable to climate change and this affects women disproportionately during different extreme events. The purpose of this paper is to understand the issue of climate change and its impact, and climate resilience among women in South Asia. Further, it also identifies the gaps and suggests future policy implications. Design/methodology/approach Climate change is increasingly being recognised as an alarming issue and the present review is important when South Asian countries are facing the brunt of climate change impacts. This paper tries to understand the issue by review of the literature and conceptual framework methodology. To understand women’s vulnerability due to climate change and its aftermath, the authors conducted both offline and online desk reviews for this study. Findings The findings of this study show a clear linkage between climate change and women’s vulnerabilities in South Asia. Climate change has significant socio-economic impacts on women, and it affects them disproportionately in various domains of agriculture, livelihood, food security, both physical and mental health, water and sanitation in the South Asia region. Practical implications The paper also highlights that the programmes that aim at combating the effects of climate change require a gender-sensitive approach so that climate change does not obstruct the development and reduction of poverty in the region. Social implications The findings of this paper will add value in helping families to come out of poverty by undertaking adaptive measures with proactive assistance from the government and grassroots level organisations. Originality/value The present study also advocates for more gender- and climate-sensitive measures from governments, and implementation of intervention- and evidence-based research in the South Asian countries.

The short-run and long-run dynamics among FDI, trade openness and economic growth: using a bootstrap ARDL test for co-integration in selected South Asian countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-295 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hummera Saleem ◽  
Malik Shahzad Shabbir ◽  
Muhammad Bilal khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamic causal relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), gross domestic product (GDP) and trade openness (TO) on a set of five selected South Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachThis study used newly developed bootstrap auto regressive distributed lags (ARDL) cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship among FDI, GDP and TO for selected South Asian countries for 1975–2016.FindingsThe economic growth (EG) is significantly related to TO for Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka and the expansion of TO is crucial for growth in these countries. The results show that all countries (except Bangladesh) found the existence of long-run cointegration between FDI, GDP and TO, whereas FDI is a dependent variable. These results concluded that FDI and TO are contributing to EG in these selected countries.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first attempts to investigate the causal relationship and address the short and long dynamic among FDI, GDP and TO regarding five south Asian countries such as Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Role of demographic factors in economic growth of South Asian countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Faqeer Syed Umaid Shahid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis study examines the long-run and short-run impact of demographic factors, i.e. life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio in determining the economic growth of South Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachThe theoretical foundation of the study relies on demographic transition theory and incorporates life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio into the production function by means of human capital component. The study uses annual panel data of four South Asian courtiers, i.e. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes panel ARDL model to analyze the long run and short run impact of demographic factors on economic growth.FindingsResults show that real stock of capital, fertility rate and life expectancy are positively related with economic growth, while an increase in young dependency ratio reduces economic growth in South Asian countries in the long run. Short-run dynamics show that real stock of capital and life expectancy have insignificant impact on economic growth, while young dependency ratio has negative and significant as well as life expectancy has positive and significant impact on economic growth in South Asian countries. Unidirectional causality exists from young dependency ratio and fertility rate to GDP per capita in the short run.Practical implicationsGovernment has to design policies for better health and education facilities to yield high economic growth as well as better infrastructure and macroeconomic stability to facilitate capital accumulation in the region to foster economic growth.Originality/valueThis study considerably adds into the existing literature by providing better understanding of various demographic aspects and their economic inference by highlighting the demographic changes that South Asia has endured. This study is also beneficial for policymakers and growth analysts in generating effective and sustainable policies regarding population dynamics and economic development of the region.

scholarly journals Does Globalisation Influence Employment? Empirical Investigation on Individual as well as Panel of South Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 7-34
Author(s):  
Ramesh Chandra Das ◽  
Kamal Ray
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Employment Generation ◽  
The Individual

Debate on globalisation versus protectionism was relevant in long back, though prevailing consensus construing protectionism saves job in the short run and slows economic growth in the long run. The objective of the study is to examine empirically whether globalisation affects overall employment generation in the South Asian countries during the period 1991–2016 in individual as well as panel of countries. Having no long-run associations in the majority of the countries, results support that the change in globalisation index makes a cause to change in employment only for Bhutan, while change of growth rate of employment makes a cause to change in the rate of globalisation for Maldives and Nepal. Further, the dynamic panel study fails to establish any long-run relationships between globalisation and employment of the countries of the region. However, in the short run, globalisation makes a cause to employment in the panel format, which is highly unlikely to happen in case of the individual countries. Thus, extent of globalisation and employment generation in the South Asian countries do not have strong inter relationships.

Finance-institution-growth trilogy: time-series insights from South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clement Olalekan Olaniyi ◽  
Adebayo Adedokun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study examines the moderating effect of institutional quality on the finance-growth nexus in South Africa from 1986 to 2015.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts unit root tests, cointegration test and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model.FindingsThe findings reveal that institutional quality constitutes a drain to the growth benefits of financial development (FD) in South Africa in the short-run while FD and institutional quality converge to enhance growth process of the country in the long-run. Also, the threshold of institutional quality beyond which institution stimulates strong positive impact of finance on growth is estimated to be 6.42 on a 10-point scale.Practical implicationsThis study, therefore, suggests that institutional quality matters in the way FD influences economic growth in South Africa. Hence, stakeholders are encouraged to trace and block lapses and loopholes in the institutional framework guiding financial system in South Africa so as to maximize growth benefits of FD.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the extant studies by introducing a country-specific analysis into the empirical examination of how institutional quality influences the impact of FD on economic growth. Also, this study deviates from other studies by determining the threshold of institutional quality beyond which FD stimulates strong positive effect on economic growth in South Africa

Foreign aid and growth nexus: empirical evidence from South Asian countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nihar Ranjan Jena ◽  
Narayan Sethi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the effectiveness of foreign aid in improving economic growth prospects in the South Asian region from 1996 to 2017.Design/methodology/approachA sample of eight South Asian countries for the period 1996–2017 is being considered for this study. This study uses various econometrics tools such as Pedroni and Johansen–Fisher panel cointegration test, panel fully modified ordinary least square and panel dynamic ordinary least square (PDOLS) to ascertain the long-run and short-run dynamics among the variables under consideration.FindingsThe empirical results found that long-run, as well as the short-run relationship, exist among foreign aid, economic growth, investment, financial deepening, price stability and trade openness of the South Asian economies. The authors also found unidirectional causality running from foreign aid to economic growth. Both the long-run relationship as well as short-run causality between foreign aid and economic growth is unequivocally positive.Originality/valueThis study uses a dynamic macroeconomic modeling framework to assess the impact of aid flows on economic growth in South Asian economies. Taking into account the diversity of level of growth experienced by the eight countries in the Asian region, this study uses an appropriate regression technique, i.e. PDOLS whose results are robust. Therefore, the policymakers in these countries are well-advised to implement suitable policy measures to ensure optimum utilization of foreign capital resources garnered by way of receipt of foreign aid and build on for stronger future economic growth.

scholarly journals Panel Cointegration and Pooled Mean Group Estimations of Energy-Output Dynamics in South Asia

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 277-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anupam Das ◽  
Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman .
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Specific Effect ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Energy Output ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

This study employs the panel cointegration and pooled mean group (PMG) techniques to examine the long run relationships between energy consumption and GDP for 5 South Asian countries from 1981 to 2009. Unit root and panel cointegration tests find a long run relationship between energy consumption and GDP after allowing for country-specific effect. Furthermore, we use the PMG technique to identify the magnitude of this relationship. Our results are consistent with the theory that suggests a role of energy use in GDP. On average, a 1% increase in energy consumption leads to a 0.61% increase in the long run GDP in South Asia from 1981 to 2009. Hence, it is apparent that energy is an important component to maintain the economic activities in these countries. These results have important implications for policy makers of South Asian countries which have experienced magnificent growth performance along with a sharp rise in consumption demand for energy in last few decades.

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