Role of demographic factors in economic growth of South Asian countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Faqeer Syed Umaid Shahid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis study examines the long-run and short-run impact of demographic factors, i.e. life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio in determining the economic growth of South Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachThe theoretical foundation of the study relies on demographic transition theory and incorporates life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio into the production function by means of human capital component. The study uses annual panel data of four South Asian courtiers, i.e. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes panel ARDL model to analyze the long run and short run impact of demographic factors on economic growth.FindingsResults show that real stock of capital, fertility rate and life expectancy are positively related with economic growth, while an increase in young dependency ratio reduces economic growth in South Asian countries in the long run. Short-run dynamics show that real stock of capital and life expectancy have insignificant impact on economic growth, while young dependency ratio has negative and significant as well as life expectancy has positive and significant impact on economic growth in South Asian countries. Unidirectional causality exists from young dependency ratio and fertility rate to GDP per capita in the short run.Practical implicationsGovernment has to design policies for better health and education facilities to yield high economic growth as well as better infrastructure and macroeconomic stability to facilitate capital accumulation in the region to foster economic growth.Originality/valueThis study considerably adds into the existing literature by providing better understanding of various demographic aspects and their economic inference by highlighting the demographic changes that South Asia has endured. This study is also beneficial for policymakers and growth analysts in generating effective and sustainable policies regarding population dynamics and economic development of the region.

The short-run and long-run dynamics among FDI, trade openness and economic growth: using a bootstrap ARDL test for co-integration in selected South Asian countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-295 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hummera Saleem ◽  
Malik Shahzad Shabbir ◽  
Muhammad Bilal khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamic causal relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), gross domestic product (GDP) and trade openness (TO) on a set of five selected South Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachThis study used newly developed bootstrap auto regressive distributed lags (ARDL) cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship among FDI, GDP and TO for selected South Asian countries for 1975–2016.FindingsThe economic growth (EG) is significantly related to TO for Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka and the expansion of TO is crucial for growth in these countries. The results show that all countries (except Bangladesh) found the existence of long-run cointegration between FDI, GDP and TO, whereas FDI is a dependent variable. These results concluded that FDI and TO are contributing to EG in these selected countries.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first attempts to investigate the causal relationship and address the short and long dynamic among FDI, GDP and TO regarding five south Asian countries such as Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Foreign aid and growth nexus: empirical evidence from South Asian countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nihar Ranjan Jena ◽  
Narayan Sethi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the effectiveness of foreign aid in improving economic growth prospects in the South Asian region from 1996 to 2017.Design/methodology/approachA sample of eight South Asian countries for the period 1996–2017 is being considered for this study. This study uses various econometrics tools such as Pedroni and Johansen–Fisher panel cointegration test, panel fully modified ordinary least square and panel dynamic ordinary least square (PDOLS) to ascertain the long-run and short-run dynamics among the variables under consideration.FindingsThe empirical results found that long-run, as well as the short-run relationship, exist among foreign aid, economic growth, investment, financial deepening, price stability and trade openness of the South Asian economies. The authors also found unidirectional causality running from foreign aid to economic growth. Both the long-run relationship as well as short-run causality between foreign aid and economic growth is unequivocally positive.Originality/valueThis study uses a dynamic macroeconomic modeling framework to assess the impact of aid flows on economic growth in South Asian economies. Taking into account the diversity of level of growth experienced by the eight countries in the Asian region, this study uses an appropriate regression technique, i.e. PDOLS whose results are robust. Therefore, the policymakers in these countries are well-advised to implement suitable policy measures to ensure optimum utilization of foreign capital resources garnered by way of receipt of foreign aid and build on for stronger future economic growth.

Factors affecting level of unemployment in South Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiza Shabbir ◽  
Shazia kousar ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Alam
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship between economic variables and the unemployment rate in South Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachA panel Vector Error Correction (VECM) model is used to establish the long-run and the short-run relationship between unemployment rate and selected economic variables. Data were collected from WDI, WGI and FDSD for the year's 1994–2016.FindingsThe finding of the study showed a negative and significant relationship at the 5% level of significance among governance, internet users, mobile cellular subscriptions, fixed broadband subscriptions and human capital with an unemployment rate of South Asian economies. On the other hand, financial activity (credit) and population growth have a positive and significant relationship with the unemployment rate.Research limitations/implicationsIn the light of our findings clear that employment problems can only be created if the government does not put in place adequate measures to control the population and allocate resources equitably, giving a sense of belonging to all citizens. Therefore, to provide the controlled population with the necessary employment opportunities, it is necessary to allocate resources efficiently and to launch projects aimed at creating jobs.Practical implicationsTransparency or merit is the basis of good governance and the very first step to achieving the goal of good governance is to fight against corruption. It provides a complete justification for providing good quality management records, financial controlling and managerial systems.Originality/valueThe connections between governance and unemployment are complex and need to be studied in a detailed manner. There is the absence of literature that strongly interfaces good governance to unemployment; the fundamental work in this regard is Farid (2015). They locate a solid relationship between good governance and improving external debt situation by in Pakistan a time series analysis. But there is no research in the context of South Asian countries between governance and unemployment.

scholarly journals Impact of Demographic Variables on Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-58
Author(s):  
Nisar Ahmad ◽  
Sara Nayyab
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The Impact

This study find the impact of demographic variables on economic growth in selected South Asian countries; Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri-Lanka using panel data from 1976 to 2017. Fertility rate and life expectancy are used as demographic variables and GDP is used to indicate the economic growth. Panel unit root tests including Levin-Lin & Chu, Im-Pesaran & Shin, ADF-Fisher χ2, PP-Fisher χ2 are applied to check the stationary of variables. Pedroni and Kao Panel Co-integration are employed to test the co-integration among variables. Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimators are obtained for long run relationship. Results show that total fertility rate and life expectancy have significant impact on economic growth in these four South Asian countries. For example, one unit increase in total fertility rate depresses the economic growth by 0.106 units. However, economic growth is accelerated by 0.196 units due to one year increase in life expectancy.

Does inward remittance lead to export performance in South Asian countries?

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nihar Ranjan Jena ◽  
Narayan Sethi
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether inward remittance leads to export performance in selected South Asian economies over the time period of 1993–2017. Design/methodology/approach The stationarity of the variables is checked by Levin, Lin and Chu t, Breitung t-stat., Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat., ADF–Fisher and Philips–Perron–Fisher panel unit root tests. Panel Granger Causality is used to verify the short-run causality. Pedroni’s, Kao’s and Johansen–Fisher panel cointegration approaches are employed to examine the long-run relationship among the variables. Panel VECM is used to confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Findings Panels FMOLS and DOLS show that remittance inflows have negatively impacted the export performance of the selected South Asian countries during the study period. Granger Causality and VECM test confirm the existence of short-run and long-run relationship among the variables. The authors conclude that inward remittance is affecting export performance negatively during the study period. Furthermore, inward remittances occupy a major source of development finance for selected South Asian countries. Originality/value The study uses a dynamic macroeconomic modeling framework to assess the inward remittance on export performance in South Asian countries. Taking into account the diversity of the level of growth experienced by the five countries in the Asian region, the study uses an appropriate regression technique, i.e. panel dynamic OLS whose results are robust. As exports are a proven way to further economic growth, this study fills a vital gap in the literature by ascertaining the degree of impact of remittances in influencing outbound exports from the South Asian region.

Remittances-inflation nexus in South Asia: an empirical examination

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hem C. Basnet ◽  
Ficawoyi Donou-Adonsou ◽  
Kamal Upadhyaya
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether remittances induce inflation in South Asian countries, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach This study uses panel cointegration and Pooled Mean Group techniques covering from 1975 to 2017 to estimate the long-run and the short-run effect of remittances on inflation. Findings The estimated results suggest that the inflationary impact of remittances in South Asia depends on the time length. The inflow tends to lower inflation in the short run, whereas it increases in the long run. The findings highlight the regional peculiarity in the impact of remittances on the price level. The results are statistically significant and are confirmed by the Mean Group estimation as well. Originality/value Most past studies investigating the nexus between remittances and inflation in the South Asian context examine either these countries individually or include them all in a pool of big cross-sections. This study contributes to the literature by addressing this void. The South Asian countries should not generalize the earlier findings on the link between remittance inflows and inflation, as the short-run effect is different from the long run. Thus, these countries would be better off designing long-run policies that are different from the short run.

scholarly journals Is External Debt a Boon or a Curse? Empirical Evidence from South Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 223-232
Author(s):  
MUHAMMAD REEHAN HAMEED ◽  
MAJID ALI ◽  
HAFSAH BATOOL
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Short Run

Over the years, the South Asian countries were facing the dilemma of twin’s deficits because they had failed to generate sufficient revenues to finance their budget. Consequently, they were continuously relying on both domestic and external debt to bridge these deficits which had put a severe implication on their economic growth. Their financial position continued to deteriorate and undermined all the efforts of the governments made to stimulate economic growth. The governments in these countries failed to generate enough revenues through internal sources. Therefore, the deficits were normally fiancé through external sources. The paper examined whether the external debt was a blessing or course to the economic growth of South Asian countries i.e. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. For this purpose 30 years of panel data of these countries from 1990 to 2019 had been taken. Fixed effect model and Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Approach had been applied to examine the short-run and long-run association among the variables. The natural log of GDP per capita was used as a proxy for economic growth. The other variables were external debt, initial GDP, foreign direct investment, trade openness, investment, and secondary school investment rate. The outcomes of the study indicated that that external debt had a negative impact on economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. This revealed that external debt had not been utilized effectively and productively. The study suggested that effort would be made to manage the external debt and reduced the twin's deficits to minimize the harmful impact of external debt on the economy. Keywords: South Asian, External Debt, ARDL, Fixed Effect Model, Economic Growth.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION FROM SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-184
Author(s):  
Muhammad Reehan Hameed ◽  
Ghulam Sarwar ◽  
Shahid Adil ◽  
Hafsah Batool ◽  
Israr Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Short Run

Purpose of the study: This study aims to analyze the short-run and as well as long-run effects of public debt on the economy of South Asian countries. And to resolve problems in managing and servicing their massive public debt obligations. Methodology: For econometrically investigation, panel data has been used for the era of 1990-2019. For obtaining econometric outcomes, we applied the Fixed Effect Model and PMG/ Panel ARDL. Main Findings: The results revealed that public debt negatively affected the economic performance of these countries. This effect is adverse both in short as well as in long period. Applications of this study: The study can be effective for simultaneous achievement of the desirable level of economic growth and public debt stock seems to be difficult and could remain elusive if some serious measures have not been taken. Novelty/Originality of this study: The study recommends the efficient and productive utilization of borrowed funds to avoid their negative repercussions.

Does trade interdependency lead linkages between stock markets? A case of South Asian countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 490-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test the dynamic linkages among the stock markets of four South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) in the backdrop of trade interdependency. Design/methodology/approach Listed indices are used to serve the proxy of stock markets of four countries for the period: January 2000–December 2018. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality techniques in multivariate frameworks while focusing on intraregional trade as an exogenous factor for testing the long- and short-run causality in the given data set, hence raising the quality of statistical inference. Findings The results highlight that India and Pakistan are net exporters to the South Asian region, while Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are net importers from the region. While testing the stock markets linkages, the expanded intraregional trade volumes (exports plus imports) have occurred with the significant cointegration of stock markets of India and Pakistan with the other stock markets in the long run. In the short run, the stock markets of India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka report bidirectional causality without having significant spillovers of intraregional trade on the stock prices. Research limitations/implications The study relies on the multivariate techniques with stock prices and regional trade share as the exogenous variables. Further the regulatory, political and economic conditions of sample countries are fundamentally different which in turn affect their degree of trade interdependency and integration between the stock markets. Practical implications Nonsignificant cointegration of the stock markets of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh highlights the possibility of portfolio diversification in the long run, while the significant bidirectional causalities between the stock markets highlight the lesser degree of portfolio diversifications in the short run. Originality/value Pioneer efforts are made to examine the dynamic linkages between the South Asian stock markets while focusing on regional trade interdependency. The results provide new insight in the dynamics of stock returns of South Asian stock markets in the backdrop of intraregional trade.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

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