The trade and income effects of RCEP: implications for China and Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 306-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiaomin Li ◽  
Hee Cheol Moon
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Firm Heterogeneity ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Income Effects ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
Extensive Margin Of Trade

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to simulate the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on trade and income, with a particular interest in the effect on China and Korea. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Li et al. (2017) to simulate the effect of RCEP. The CGE model is grounded in the firm heterogeneity theory. Within this framework, the feature of dynamic movements of firms allows the CGE model to capture the extensive margin of trade increase. Aside from that, the CGE model separates foreign direct investment (FDI) from domestic investment, which helps to explain the effect of the removal of FDI barriers. Findings Results show that RCEP will increase trade of China by 1.5 percent. The income of China will increase by 2.5 percent. The trade increase of Korea will be $8bn, and its income will increase by 0.6 percent. In terms of welfare, China will gain $214bn and Korea will gain $23~35bn, taking 2~3 percent of Korea’s GDP. Also, the reduction of behind-the-border barriers presents very significant effects. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is to quantitatively assess the potential effects of RCEP on trade and income. The positive findings would propel RCEP parties, especially China and Korea, to reach an agreement as soon as possible.

Mining booms and growth in Laos – empirical result from CGE model

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phouphet Kyophilavong
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This study aims to lay out a framework to quantify the impacts of mining booms on the macro-economy in Laos. Design/methodology/approach A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to investigate the impact of the mining sector on the Laos’ economy by examining this sector’s increase in both stock and the productivity of capital. Findings It was found that higher capital stock and productivity lead to increased value added, production, exports and investment in the mining sector. These increases result in higher real gross domestic product, exports and investment. Unfortunately, the effects from the associated Dutch disease negatively impact real production and value added in the agriculture and industry. Suitable macroeconomic management and prudent administration of the windfall income from mining are therefore important. Practical implications The finding is important for policymakers to implement policy to deal with the negative impact of mining booms. Originality/value It is the first study to attempt to investigate the impact of the mining sector on the Lao economy using the CGE model. Second, we also provide recommendation to cope with the negative impact from mining booms which provide important implications for other developing countries that face the negative impact from mining booms.

scholarly journals Economic Implications of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership for Asia and the Pacific

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cyn-Young Park ◽  
Peter A. Petri ◽  
Michael G. Plummer
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
Factor Returns ◽  
Investment Patterns ◽  
Trade And Investment

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) presents strong potential to mold regional trade and investment patterns well into the future and to influence the direction of global economic cooperation at a challenging time. This paper evaluates the RCEP’s impact on global and regional incomes, trade, economic structure, factor returns, and employment using a computable general equilibrium model. The results suggest that the RCEP agreement could generate sizable global income gains. Together with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership, the RCEP will also strengthen the region’s manufacturing supply chains, raising productivity and increasing wages and employment.

India-Vietnam security ties will grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Congress ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Significance Delhi and Hanoi declared a ‘strategic partnership’ in 2007 and a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ in 2016. Each is wary of China’s growing power. Impacts Election of new leaders at the Communist Party of Vietnam’s upcoming national congress will have little impact on Hanoi’s foreign policy. India will resist calls to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Cambodia and Laos will remain the two ASEAN members most closely aligned with China.

The effect of FDI on domestic investment and economic growth case of three Maghreb countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walid Ali ◽  
Ali Mna
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Investment Growth

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to show how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects domestic investment and economic growth. This study empirically examines this question in the case of three developing countries (Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco).Design/methodology/approachUsing the GMM estimator technique, the authors constructed a system with simultaneous equations by three endogenous variables: economic growth (GDP), FDI and domestic investment (DI).FindingsThe study was a nuance, its results, at the role of investment–growth relationship, are of paramount importance though subtle and slightly different.Originality/valueThe authors used data from international institutions such as the IMF, UNCTAD, OECD and the World Bank for macroeconomic aggregates. However, the interest rate variables are derived from the central banks of the three countries in the sample. The analysis covers the period from 1980 to 2014.

Comparing the Economic Impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inkyo Cheong ◽  
Jose Tongzon
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Several initiatives have emerged for regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States has led the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, and ASEAN countries have recently started to promote the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. This paper estimates the net economic impact of these initiatives by eliminating the overlapping portions of free trade agreement–related economic gains through the use of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The paper analyzes the economic and political feasibility of these two initiatives and assesses their economic impacts. Finally, the paper provides implications for economic integration in East Asia based on a quantitative assessment.

Trump win will force Abe to recalibrate key policies

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Significance Tokyo had prepared for a Hillary Clinton victory, and is alarmed by comments during Trump's election campaign that raise doubts over the US-Japan defence alliance and raise fears that economic cooperation will give way to conflict. Impacts As Abe diverts resources into stabilising US ties, other policy areas may receive less attention. Exchange rate policy could re-emerge as a point of tension in Japan-US relations. With the Trans-Pacific Partnership likely to collapse, Japan may inject fresh energy into the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. US 'abandonment' would force Japan to strengthen its independent defence capabilities, sparking a destabilising arms race with China. The idea of Japan acquiring nuclear weapons is a non-starter.

South-east Asia will further champion free trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Community Integration ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Asean Economic Community ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Subject South-east Asia's push for trade agreements. Significance Late last month, an Indonesian delegation led by Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita began a week of negotiations in Washington to lobby against the withdrawal of trade preferences for Indonesian exports to the United States. Meanwhile, South-east Asian states are involved in two major trade agreements: the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the 16-state Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Impacts US trade reprisals against Indonesia could weaken Jakarta’s support for Washington’s diplomatic pressure on North Korea. The US-China tariff escalation could prompt partners to redirect some of their trade, boosting trade between Taiwan and South-east Asia. ASEAN Economic Community integration will be slow despite progress in RCEP and the CPTPP.

Prospects for South-east Asia in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South China ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Volatility ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in 2019. Significance The early part of next year will feature important elections in some of South-east Asia's major economies. Meanwhile, financial volatility and a trade downturn pose risks to ASEAN economies. ASEAN under Thailand’s chairmanship will aim to advance the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea.

Investment will drive solid Taiwanese growth in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
The Impact

Subject Taiwan growth prospects. Significance Taiwan’s GDP grew by 3.38% year-on-year in October-December 2019. This is an acceleration from 2.6% year-on-year growth in the second quarter to 3.0% in the third. Consumer spending has grown steadily, while investment reshoring and exports to the United States have grown even more strongly due to trade diversion designed to mitigate the impact of US-China trade tensions. Impacts Taiwan is not currently part of the Asia Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its exclusion may limit its trade opportunities. If Taiwan learns from Japan’s experience of adjusting to an ageing population, automated social services could emerge as leading sectors. The president has a renewed mandate to introduce reforms aimed at raising wages and creating jobs, especially in high-skill industries.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document