Trump win will force Abe to recalibrate key policies

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Significance Tokyo had prepared for a Hillary Clinton victory, and is alarmed by comments during Trump's election campaign that raise doubts over the US-Japan defence alliance and raise fears that economic cooperation will give way to conflict. Impacts As Abe diverts resources into stabilising US ties, other policy areas may receive less attention. Exchange rate policy could re-emerge as a point of tension in Japan-US relations. With the Trans-Pacific Partnership likely to collapse, Japan may inject fresh energy into the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. US 'abandonment' would force Japan to strengthen its independent defence capabilities, sparking a destabilising arms race with China. The idea of Japan acquiring nuclear weapons is a non-starter.

Japanese leadership will revive TPP

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Global Standards ◽  
The Us ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Subject The revival of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Significance US President Donald Trump in January announced Washington's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP), bringing its implementation to a standstill. Without US participation, the TPP looked dead, since the US economy is larger than the other eleven economies combined. Nevertheless, after months of uncertainty, the project was revived by the eleven members under the leadership of Japan. Impacts Failure or watering down of a TPP-11 would leave China a greater role in setting global standards and norms. Progress towards the TPP-11 could speed up the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and EU-Japan economic partnership agreement. Other states will seek TPP membership in the future, with Taipei and Seoul likely candidates.

ASEAN will proclaim limited trade progress at summit

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Minority Group ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Dispute ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Significance The meeting comes against the backdrop of a diplomatic spat between Vietnam, Cambodia and Singapore over Vietnam’s 1978 military incursion into Cambodia. South-east Asian leaders will discuss regional economic integration, for example through the ASEAN Single Window (ASW) trade facility and the ASEAN-centred Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade pact. Impacts ASEAN members will aim to capitalise on shifting regional supply chains precipitated by the US-China trade dispute. ASEAN and China may next month complete the first reading of the single draft negotiating text for a South China Sea Code of Conduct. An upcoming ASEAN assessment of the Rohingya crisis will do little to stem global criticism of Myanmar’s treatment of the minority group.

US and Chinese yield curve responses to RMB exchange rate policy shocks

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 360-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiwu Hong ◽  
Linlin Niu ◽  
Gengming Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Rate Policy

Purpose Using a discrete-time version of the arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel (AFNS) term structure model, the authors examine how yield curves in the US and China react to exchange rate policy shocks as China introduces gradual reforms to make its exchange rate regime more flexible. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach The authors characterize the specification of the discrete-time AFNS model, prove the uniqueness of the solution for model identification, perform specification analysis on its canonical form and detail the MCMC estimation method with a fast and reliable prior extraction step. Findings Model decomposition reveals that in the US yield responses, changes in risk premia for medium- to long-term yields dominate changes in yield expectation for short- to medium-term yields, indicating that the portfolio rebalancing effect due to varying risk perception is stronger than the signaling effect due to policy rate expectation. Practical implications The results are helpful in diagnosing market sentiment and exchange rate risk pricing as China further internationalizes its currency. Originality/value The methodology can be easily extended to study yield curve responses to other scenarios of policy shocks or regime changes.

Bank of Mexico governor nomination sparks uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Us ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Government

Significance AMLO initially nominated Arturo Herrera for the role in June, replacing him as finance minister with Rogelio Ramirez de la O. Incumbent Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon will stand down at the end of December. Impacts A tighter monetary policy will open a significant gap with US interest rates, helping to stabilise the peso against the US dollar. Given Rodriguez’s provenance, the harmonious relationship between Banxico and the finance ministry will probably continue. The nomination of an unexpected individual to lead the central bank will reaffirm AMLO’s authority on economic matters. Although the finance ministry controls exchange rate policy, the government is not likely to modify the free-floating exchange rate regime.

India-Vietnam security ties will grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Congress ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Significance Delhi and Hanoi declared a ‘strategic partnership’ in 2007 and a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ in 2016. Each is wary of China’s growing power. Impacts Election of new leaders at the Communist Party of Vietnam’s upcoming national congress will have little impact on Hanoi’s foreign policy. India will resist calls to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Cambodia and Laos will remain the two ASEAN members most closely aligned with China.

The laptop ban will force adjustments by Gulf carriers

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Electronic Devices ◽  
Security Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Cost Carriers ◽  
Will Force ◽  
The Uk

Significance Washington and London from March 25 enforced a new requirement that laptops and other electronic devices must be checked into the hold by airlines serving certain Middle Eastern airports. The US restrictions apply, among others, to the 'Gulf Three' carriers -- Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways -- although the UK rule does not. Impacts As Gulf airlines retrench, Airbus could be hit, with slower sales of its A380 'Superjumbo'. Airports may reorganise their security systems to segregate air-side passengers affected by the restrictions from those who are not. UK low-cost carriers (LCCs) and charter airlines will face some difficult choices on charging and turnaround times.

South-east Asia will further champion free trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Community Integration ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Asean Economic Community ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Subject South-east Asia's push for trade agreements. Significance Late last month, an Indonesian delegation led by Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita began a week of negotiations in Washington to lobby against the withdrawal of trade preferences for Indonesian exports to the United States. Meanwhile, South-east Asian states are involved in two major trade agreements: the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the 16-state Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Impacts US trade reprisals against Indonesia could weaken Jakarta’s support for Washington’s diplomatic pressure on North Korea. The US-China tariff escalation could prompt partners to redirect some of their trade, boosting trade between Taiwan and South-east Asia. ASEAN Economic Community integration will be slow despite progress in RCEP and the CPTPP.

Prospects for South-east Asia in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South China ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Volatility ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in 2019. Significance The early part of next year will feature important elections in some of South-east Asia's major economies. Meanwhile, financial volatility and a trade downturn pose risks to ASEAN economies. ASEAN under Thailand’s chairmanship will aim to advance the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea.

Confrontation with Iraq’s militias may come to a head

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Double Hit ◽  
Will Force

Significance This followed five rocket attacks on the US-led coalition in the last two weeks, which killed two US and one UK citizen. It also came two days after Kurdish President Barham Salih named Adnan al-Zurfi, a US-linked Shia nationalist politician, as the new prime minister-designate. Impacts Washington may hold back its response to attacks in order to further Zurfi’s ratification. A massive double hit from low oil prices and COVID-19 will force Iraq to seek more international aid. A Zurfi government could improve Iraq’s chances of gaining Western and Gulf financial assistance.

Investment will drive solid Taiwanese growth in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
The Impact

Subject Taiwan growth prospects. Significance Taiwan’s GDP grew by 3.38% year-on-year in October-December 2019. This is an acceleration from 2.6% year-on-year growth in the second quarter to 3.0% in the third. Consumer spending has grown steadily, while investment reshoring and exports to the United States have grown even more strongly due to trade diversion designed to mitigate the impact of US-China trade tensions. Impacts Taiwan is not currently part of the Asia Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its exclusion may limit its trade opportunities. If Taiwan learns from Japan’s experience of adjusting to an ageing population, automated social services could emerge as leading sectors. The president has a renewed mandate to introduce reforms aimed at raising wages and creating jobs, especially in high-skill industries.

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