Do you have a naïve forecasting model of the future?

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 267-269
Author(s):  
Larry Wofford ◽  
David Wyman ◽  
Christopher W. Starr

PurposeThis paper addresses the increasingly rapid and disruptive changes caused by technology innovations impacting commercial real estate (CRE) and how leaders in today's CRE business environment can better anticipate, and even experiment with, disruptive technologies while maintaining current business assets and practices.Design/methodology/approachThis qualitative research is based in systems theory, through which the impact of disruptive technology innovation cycles on business models is described for tactical and strategic utility.FindingsThe advent of the fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) is characterized by a convergence of multiple technological innovations including artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, smart buildings, autonomous agents, and automated decision-making. Industry 4.0 promises a future of discontinuities and disruptive innovation superseding the deployment of digital technologies enabled by Industry 3.0. Ambidextrous leaders need to maintain two concurrent foci: one on the current CRE business environment for incremental improvements and one on new opportunities made possible by the next technology innovation cycle.Practical implicationsBy anticipating the inflection points of nonlinear technology adoption cycles, CRE leaders can reduce risks and increase innovative opportunities as participants in the next disruptive cycle rather than falling victim to it.Originality/valueThis work examines CRE market disruptions caused by technology innovation cycles through the lens of systems theory. A connection is made between the nonlinear nature of technology disruption cycles within the CRE business environment and how CRE leadership can better anticipate and prepare for change through ambidextrous thinking.

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 965-984 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Bienhaus ◽  
Abubaker Haddud

Purpose While digitisation is a key driver of the fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0); organisations have different approaches to deal with this topic to get a clearer picture of the opportunities and challenges concerning the digital transformation. The purpose of this paper is to identify the impact of digitisation on procurement and its role within the area of supply chain management. The research will also explore potential barriers to digitising procurement and supply chains and ways to overcome them. Finally, the significance of potential enabling technologies to the digitisation will also be examined. Design/methodology/approach A quantitative approached utilising an online survey was used to collect the primary data for this study. Data were collected from 414 participants directly involved with procurement or related business functions and work for different organisations in different industries. The survey included eight items about the impact of digitisation on organisational performance in the area of procurement and supply chains; ten items related to key barriers to digitisation of organisations and ways to overcome them; and seven items about enabling technologies to leverage procurement procedures and processes digitisation. All of these items utilised the Likert five-point level of agreement scale. Findings The findings indicate that digitisation of procurement process can yield several benefits including: supporting daily business and administrative tasks, supporting complex decision-making processes, procurement will become more focussed on strategic decisions and activities, procurement will become a strategic interface to support organisational efficiency, effectiveness, and profitability, and supporting the creation of new business models, products, and services. The authors were also able to confirm that there are barriers to digitising procurement process and supply chains and such barriers found in existing procedures, processes, capacities, and capabilities. Finally, the significance of a number of enabling technologies to the digitisation process was revealed. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study of its kind with participants located world-wide. Industry 4.0 as a topic had been explored within different business areas and functions but very limited research specifically explored potential impact, barriers, and enabling technologies of procurement 4.0. The results can be beneficial for organisations already implemented Industry 4.0 or planning to do so. The study can also benefit academic scholars interested in the researched topic, business professionals, organisations within different sectors, and any other party interested in understanding more the concept of procurement 4.0.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tala Abuhussein ◽  
Husam Barham ◽  
Saheer Al-Jaghoub

Purpose The ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in sudden changes in the macro environment and market behaviour, making most enterprises urgently reconfigure their business models to cope with changes following the COVID-19 outbreak. This paper aims to present empirical data on the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), highlighting the initial conclusions regarding their crisis management. It presents factual data on how SMEs in Jordan can use entrepreneurship to combat uncertainty and promote new opportunities. Design/methodology/approach This study involves an exploratory qualitative research design, drawing from 32 semi-structured interviews of key informants from Jordanian SMEs in different stages of the crisis. The different coping strategies of the SMEs and their effectiveness in the first six months of the pandemic are then compared. Findings The findings show how Jordanian SMEs have adapted to cope with the changes in the business environment because of COVID-19. These strategies include modifying their operations that is moving from an ordinary business model to more tentative digitalisation, improving internal communication and restructuring ad hoc organisational culture. Originality/value The study presents important and timely implications for managers of Jordanian SMEs and policymakers by increasing the sensitisation and awareness of SMEs’ coping mechanisms. It is the first study in management that empirically analyses the impact of COVID-19 on Jordanian SMEs.


2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 313-331
Author(s):  
Wan Liu ◽  
Ren-huai Liu ◽  
Hui Chen ◽  
Jet Mboga

Purpose Disruptive technology and innovation represent complex conflicts in nature. This paper aims to present an analytical review of the heterogeneity and conflicts that exist in the disruptive technology/innovation between the eastern and western countries using Chinese high-speed railways to illustrate disruptive innovation. Design/methodology/approach The emerging economy brings about other theoretical and practical conflicts. Qualitative analysis is conducted on Chinese high-speed railways to assess the validity of innovation characteristics using Professor Clayton M. Christensen’s theories of disruptive technology/innovation and conflict. The authors explore the conflicts that can accompany the introduction of disruptive technologies in the current platform and how appropriately this specific context can lessen these conflicts. Findings The study revealed that Christensen’s theories could be applied 100per cent to the Chinese context if the western disruptive innovation theory can meet the practical requirements of Chinese disruptive technology/innovation. Qualitative analysis showed that Chinese high-speed railways had experienced greater success with disruptive innovation mechanism. The authors conclude that while the Chinese market is critical in shaping the kind of innovations that are emerging there, many disruptive technologies/innovations in China have their roots in the low-end market and new market. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. Originality/value There exists a research gap in the literature on the Chinese context. Conflict of disruptive technology and innovation within China and the characteristics of the Chinese high-speed railway prompt further research for scholars and practitioners.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasmin Mikl ◽  
David M. Herold ◽  
Kamila Pilch ◽  
Marek Ćwiklicki ◽  
Sebastian Kummer

Purpose Disruptive technologies in the global logistics industry are often regarded as a threat to the existing business models of incumbents’ companies. Existing research, however, focuses mainly on whether technologies have disruptive potential, thereby neglecting when such disruptive transitions occur. To understand the timing of potential disruptive technological change, this paper aims to investigate the elements of the underlying ecosystem shaping these transitions. Design/methodology/approach Building on the established ecosystem framework from Adner and Kapoor (2016a), this paper constructs four categories of technology substitution to assess how quickly disruptive change may occur in the global logistics industry and defines key technology substitution determinants in logistics to emphasize the role of ecosystems for further consideration into disruptive innovation theory. Findings Based on the key determinants, this paper proposes first definitions of distinctive ecosystems elements linked to the three types of innovations, namely, sustaining innovations, low-end disruptions and new-market disruptions, thereby integrating ecosystems into Christensen’s (1997) disruptive innovation theory. Originality/value By developing a framework that conceptualizes the pace of technology substitution, this paper contributes to a more nuanced understanding of how logistics managers and academics can better predict disruptive transitions and develop strategies to allocate resources.


2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 6-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haydn Shaughnessy

Purpose Adopting and implementing a platform-based business model is fraught with problems and complications, many of which are poorly understood even by industry insiders. As they try to sort through the best practices for operating in this new business environment, senior managers need to carefully analyze the strengths of the business model of some of most successful companies before trying to imitate them. . Design/methodology/approach For a team to execute such a strategy quickly and seamlessly it must first thoroughly understand the components of such a business model and how they interact to produce unique customer value and formidable competitive advantage Findings The platform is a new way to organize wealth-creating activity. Practical implications The author details the components of a successful platform-based business model. Originality/value Platform-based business models seek to leverage the assets of third parties and in the process extend the value of economic activity to customers in ways that engage and benefit them. Senior leaders and operations managers alike need to understand that continuous innovation of customer value and policies that attract asset-rich partners and skillful developers is essential to the growth of the network.


Author(s):  
D. Mukha

The article is devoted to the study of the phenomenon of Industry 4.0, the impact of the fourth industrial revolution on the key aspects of the companies’ economic activity, including multinational corporations. It was revealed how Industry 4.0 affects the placement and organization of global value chains. It was established that Industry 4.0 technologies contribute to the transformation of existing and the emergence of new (digital) business models, thanks to which companies can achieve a significant reduction in their own costs, gain additional income and enter international markets. It shows how Industry 4.0 can influence investment decisions, change the global flows and directions of foreign direct investment. As a result of the research, conclusions are drawn about the role of Industry 4.0 in the transformation of the business environment, industries, markets, and economy as a whole.


2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 722-731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niki Hynes ◽  
Andrew David Elwell

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of inter-organizational networks in the emergence of a disruptive technology by taking a snapshot view of the UK market for mobile voice over internet protocol (mVoIP) technologies. By delineating the technologies required for an mVoIP call to occur, the role of incumbents, technology and inter-organizational networks is explored. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a case study approach using secondary data from a variety of sources including company websites, newspapers, technical press and users to form a picture of the current situation. Findings The authors show that inter-organizational networks can act both to enable and delay disruptive technologies. They discuss the difference between collaborative and collective actions and the way in which these can slow or even prevent a new emerging technology. Research limitations/implications The paper is based on secondary data and the research results may lack generalizability to other technologies. Practical implications The need for new business models for mVoIP is discussed. Originality/value Disruptive technologies are difficult to predict or map until after the market disruption has occurred. This paper aims to map a disruptive technology at a point in time when the technology is still emerging. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of technology and market actions and is also based on secondary data: it is limited at the detailed level to one geographic market but provides a unique snapshot of an emerging disruptive technology.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2365
Author(s):  
Sorinel Căpușneanu ◽  
Dorel Mateș ◽  
Mirela Cătălina Tűrkeș ◽  
Cristian-Marian Barbu ◽  
Adela-Ioana Staraș ◽  
...  

The digital transformation has produced changes in all existing areas of activity worldwide. There are many factors that can influence the intention to use Industry 4.0 processes and solutions and change the behavior of organizations and their business models. The aim of this study is to validate the econometric model on assessing the significant impact of distinct factors on the intention to use Industry 4.0 processes and solutions, the benefits of digital transformation perceived by organizational management and the differences between distinct groups analyzed. The research method used within the quantitative study was the sample survey, using the online questionnaire as a data collection tool. Three hundred forty-seven valid questionnaires were collected and the response rate of the respondents was 64.25%. A new structural model was generated based on the elements of the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT). The results of the study indicated that Perceived competitiveness and Perceived risk have a significant impact on Intention to Use Industry 4.0 processes while Perceived vertical networking solutions and Perceived integrated engineering solutions have a significant influence on the Intention to Use Industry 4.0 solutions. In conclusion, there is a positive and significant association between Intention to Use Industry 4.0 solutions and Benefits of Digital Transformation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 939-964
Author(s):  
Mohammad A.A Zaid ◽  
Man Wang ◽  
Sara T.F. Abuhijleh ◽  
Ayman Issa ◽  
Mohammed W.A. Saleh ◽  
...  

Purpose Motivated by the agency theory, this study aims to empirically examine the nexus between board attributes and a firm’s financing decisions of non-financial listed firms in Palestine and how the previous relationship is moderated and shaped by the level of gender diversity. Design/methodology/approach Multiple regression analysis on a panel data was used. Further, we applied three different approaches of static panel data “pooled OLS, fixed effect and random effect.” Fixed-effects estimator was selected as the optimal and most appropriate model. In addition, to control for the potential endogeneity problem and to profoundly analyze the study data, the authors perform the one-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. Dynamic panel GMM specification was superior in generating robust findings. Findings The findings clearly unveil that all explanatory variables in the study model have a significant influence on the firm’s financing decisions. Moreover, the results report that the impact of board size and board independence are more positive under conditions of a high level of gender diversity, whereas the influence of CEO duality on the firm’s leverage level turned from negative to positive. In a nutshell, gender diversity moderates the effect of board structure on a firm’s financing decisions. Research limitations/implications This study was restricted to one institutional context (Palestine); therefore, the results reflect the attributes of the Palestinian business environment. In this vein, it is possible to generate different findings in other countries, particularly in developed markets. Practical implications The findings of this study can draw responsible parties and policymakers’ attention in developing countries to introduce and contextualize new mechanisms that can lead to better monitoring process and help firms in attracting better resources and establishing an optimal capital structure. For instance, entities should mandate a minimum quota for the proportion of women incorporation in boardrooms. Originality/value This study provides empirical evidence on the moderating role of gender diversity on the effect of board structure on firm’s financing decisions, something that was predominantly neglected by the earlier studies and has not yet examined by ancestors. Thereby, to protrude nuanced understanding of this novel and unprecedented idea, this study thoroughly bridges this research gap and contributes practically and theoretically to the existing corporate governance–capital structure literature.


2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 632-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah A Alabdulkarim ◽  
Peter Ball ◽  
Ashutosh Tiwari

Purpose – Asset management has recently gained significance due to emerging business models such as Product Service Systems where the sale of asset use, rather than the sale of the asset itself, is applied. This leaves the responsibility of the maintenance tasks to fall on the shoulders of the manufacturer/supplier to provide high asset availability. The use of asset monitoring assists in providing high availability but the level of monitoring and maintenance needs to be assessed for cost effectiveness. There is a lack of available tools and understanding of their value in assessing monitoring levels. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This research aims to develop a dynamic modelling approach using Discrete Event Simulation (DES) to assess such maintenance systems in order to provide a better understanding of the behaviour of complex maintenance operations. Interviews were conducted and literature was analysed to gather modelling requirements. Generic models were created, followed by simulation models, to examine how maintenance operation systems behave regarding different levels of asset monitoring. Findings – This research indicates that DES discerns varying levels of complexity of maintenance operations but that more sophisticated asset monitoring levels will not necessarily result in a higher asset performance. The paper shows that it is possible to assess the impact of monitoring levels as well as make other changes to system operation that may be more or less effective. Practical implications – The proposed tool supports the maintenance operations decision makers to select the appropriate asset monitoring level that suits their operational needs. Originality/value – A novel DES approach was developed to assess asset monitoring levels for maintenance operations. In applying this quantitative approach, it was demonstrated that higher asset monitoring levels do not necessarily result in higher asset availability. The work provides a means of evaluating the constraints in the system that an asset is part of rather than focusing on the asset in isolation.


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