Risk aversion decomposition and the impact of monetary policy surprises on aggregate tail risk aversion

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 564-590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denghui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Rare Events ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Tail Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present theoretical and empirical support that the fear component associated with rare events has an impact on risk premium and market returns. Design/methodology/approach Extension of jump-diffusion model to extract the fear component from representative agent risk aversion, Standard VAR and impulse response function analysis, Event study analysis. Findings The model implicates that investor fear of tail jumps in the financial market impacts equity risk premium. The empirical findings show both positive stock and monetary policy shocks decrease investor’s fear. It can be attributed to that a bullish stock market and an increase in interest rate reflects expanding economy, and it leads to a decrease in fear. Moreover, a surprise decline in the expected short-term rate has a mixed impact on tail risk aversion. A plausible explanation is that investors believe a surprise drop in an expected short-term rate reflects a fast deteriorating economic outlook during unconventional monetary policy period. Originality/value This paper provides theoretical framework to decompose risk aversion into two separate components: one component associated with daily volatility, and the fear component associated with rare events. The study uses risk premiums decomposed from Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index as proxies for the two components of risk aversion, and then utilizes standard value at risk and event study analysis to show the fear component plays a role in risk premium and market return.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of the Impact of Monetary Easing Policies in Times of a Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Li ◽  
Yunpeng Sun ◽  
Mengya Chen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

This article tests five major economies of the world, United Kingdom, Japan, Brazil, Chin and lastly, India, for the changes in the monetary policy decisions that have been implemented following the Covid-19 outbreak. The assessment was undertaken in the form of an event study analysis, further substantiated with a regression analysis conducted for exploring the significance of CPI and real GDP in predicting the policy interest rates in the economy. The results of the event study analysis presented that the abnormal changes in the interest rates were statistically significant in the case of the United Kingdom, Brazil, and China, while the abnormal changes were found to be statistically insignificant in the case of India and Japan.

Spillover effects of the US monetary policy on the Indian trilemma

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harpreet Singh Grewal ◽  
Pushpa Trivedi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the US unconventional monetary policy surprises on the management of trilemma in India.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses the event study approach along with OLS and MANOVA to examine the impact.FindingsThe results validate the existence of trilemma in India for the period from October 2008 to December 2017. The results also show that monetary policy independence still exists in India in the wake of greater spillover effects during the Federal Open Market Committee announcement days. The spillover effects on USD-INR exchange rates and capital flows are found to be statistically significant. The MANOVA results show that the trilemma in India is influenced by around 20% by the changes in the US monetary policy.Originality/valueThe above approach of event study combined with MANOVA in this subject area has not been used before to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Further, there are only a few studies that exist on the spillover effects of the US monetary policy actions on the management of trilemma in India.

Financial institutions mergers: a strategy choice of wealth maximisation and economic value

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 495-529
Author(s):  
Mohamad Hassan ◽  
Evangelos Giouvris
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Event Window ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Merger Announcement

Purpose This study Investigates Shareholders' value adjustment in response to financial institutions (FIs) merger announcements in the immediate event window and in the extended event window. This study also investigates accounting measures performance, comparison of post-merger to pre-merger, including several cash flow measures and not just profitability measures, as the empirical literature review suggests. Finally, the authors examine FIs mergers orientations of diversification and focus create more value for shareholders (in the immediate announcement window and several months afterward) and/or generates better cash flows, profitability and less credit risk. Design/methodology/approach This study examines FIs merger effect on bidders’ shareholder’s value and on their observed performance. This examination deploys three techniques simultaneously: a) an event study analysis, to estimate and calculate abnormal returns (ARs) and cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) in the narrow windows of the merger announcement, b) buy and hold event study analysis, to estimate ARs in the wider window of the event, +50 to +230 days after the merger announcement and c) an observed performance analysis, of financial and capital efficiency measures before and after the merger announcement; return on equity, liquidity, cost to income ratio, capital to total assets ratio, net loans to total loans, credit risk, loans to deposits ratio, other expenses and total assets, economic value addition, weighted average cost of capital and return on invested capital. Deal criteria of value, mega-deals, strategic orientation (as in Ansoff (1980) growth strategies), acquiring bank size and payment method are set as individually as control variables. Findings Results show that FIs mergers destroy share value for the bidding firms pursuing a market penetration strategy. Market development and product development strategies enable shareholders’ value creation in short and long horizons. Diversification strategies do not influence bidding shareholders’ value. Local bank to bank mergers create shareholders’ value and enhance liquidity and economic value in the short run. Bank to bank cross border mergers create value for bidders’ in the long term but are associated with high costs and higher risks. Originality/value A significant advancement over the current literature is in assessing mergers, not only for bank bidders but also for the three pillars FIs of the financial sector; banks, real-estate companies and investment companies mergers. It is an improvement over current finance literature because it deploys two different strategies in the analysis. At a univariate level, shareholder value creation and market reaction to merger announcements are examined over short (−5 or +5 days) and long (+230 days) windows of the event. Followed by regressing, the resultant CARs and BHARs over financial performance variables at the multivariate level.

Impact of ETF Listing on the Returns Generated by Underlying Stocks: Indian Evidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 0258042X2199101
Author(s):  
Prabhdeep Kaur ◽  
Jaspal Singh
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Securities Transaction Tax ◽  
Underlying Stocks ◽  
Transaction Tax ◽  
The Impact

The advent of exchange traded funds (ETFs) has rendered index trading much affordable compared to their futures counterparts. The present study attempts to examine the impact of ETF listing on the price of the constituent securities of the index that it aims to track. The sample comprises of all the equity ETFs listed in India from 1 January 2002 to 31 March 2019. Event study analysis has been used to examine whether listing of ETFs bore any price impact on the constituent stocks of ETFs. To account for robustness, both parametric and non-parametric tests have been employed. The estimates obtained from event study analysis revealed that the constituent stocks generated insignificant returns for the period extending from January 2002 to March 2009 and April 2009 to March 2013 but positive and significant cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) post ETF listing for the period ranging from April 2013 to March 2019, thus providing evidence in support of positive price impact. The permission granted to pension funds, insurers and Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) to invest their funds in ETFs as well as reduction in Securities Transaction Tax (STT) account for the observed price differential. An analysis of the factors accounting for the variation in valuation effects ascertained that the stocks that were traded thinly prior to ETF listing and those forming part of ETFs with larger asset base experienced positive price impact following ETF listing. JEL Codes: G11, G14

Market reactions to the inclusion of people with disabilities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Araceli Hernández González
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
People With Disabilities ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Research Advance ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to provide evidence of market reactions to organizations' inclusion of people with disabilities. Cases from financial journals in 1989–2014 were used to analyze the impact of actions taken by organizations to include or discriminate people with disabilities in terms of the companies' stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThis research is conducted as an event study where the disclosure of information on an organization's actions toward people with disabilities is expected to impact the organization's stock price. The window of the event was set as (−1, +1) days. Stock prices were analyzed to detect abnormal returns during this period.FindingsResults support the hypotheses that investors value inclusion and reject discrimination. Furthermore, the impact of negative actions is immediate, whereas the impact of positive actions requires at least an additional day to influence the firm's stock price. Some differences among the categories were found; for instance, employment and customer events were significantly more important to a firm's stock price than philanthropic actions. It was observed that philanthropic events produce negative abnormal returns on average.Originality/valueThe event study methodology provides a different perspective to practices in organizations regarding people with disabilities. Moreover, the findings in this research advance the literature by highlighting that organizations should consider policies and practices that include people with disabilities.

How does reverse factoring affect operating performance? An event study of Chinese manufacturing firms

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongyi Shou ◽  
Jinan Shao ◽  
Weijiao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Cost Efficiency ◽  
Operating Performance ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Performance Effect ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Operating Margin ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeAs a popular supply chain finance (SCF) strategy, reverse factoring has been widely adopted by buyer firms. However, the extant literature provides scant empirical evidence on the performance effect of reverse factoring. The purpose of this study is to seek to narrow this gap by empirically examining the relationship between reverse factoring and operating performance and the contingency conditions of this relationship.Design/methodology/approachBased on a sample of 167 announcements of reverse factoring implementation made by publicly listed Chinese manufacturing firms between 2014 and 2018, this paper employs a long-term event study approach to analyze the operating performance effect of reverse factoring as well as the moderating effects of production and innovation capabilities.FindingsThe event study results indicate that reverse factoring has a positive effect on buyer firms' operating performance in terms of cost efficiency and operating margin. In addition, both production and innovation capabilities positively moderate the relationship between reverse factoring and operating margin. However, neither of them moderates the relationship between reverse factoring and cost efficiency.Originality/valueThis is the first study that empirically examines the impact of reverse factoring on operating performance based on secondary data. Furthermore, it sheds light on the SCF literature by providing insights into the contingency effects of production and innovation capabilities, which also extends our understanding of the application of extended resource-based view in SCF research.

New product announcement: spokesperson a manifestation of increasing firm value

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1635-1655
Author(s):  
Bikram Jit Singh Mann ◽  
Sonia Babbar
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Source Credibility ◽  
Shareholder Value ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
New Product ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Before introducing new products, companies make announcements regarding the launch of the product which influences stock market yields of the announcing companies. Information content of the new product announcement has never been an exclusive focused stream of research. Therefore, an assessment of the impact of the content characteristics of the new product announcement on the shareholder value and the impact of source credibility (spokesperson) in making such announcements is a major gap in the existing literature. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach First, the standard event study methodology has been employed on the sample to measure the abnormal gains/losses accruing to the announcing firms. Second, moderated regression analysis (MRA) is employed to identify the characteristics of the new product announcement and to check the role of the spokesperson in creating shareholder value. Findings The results of the event study indicate that the abnormal returns are generated during the new product announcement. The results of MRA disclose the variables having a positive and a significant influence on the effective returns of the announcing companies. Likewise, the role of the spokesperson has come out brightly as a credible communicator. Originality/value The research provides a direction to the announcing companies regarding the content of the announcement leading to a positive perception among the investing community. Likewise, it also provides direction to the investor community about the characteristics of the announcement content they give weight age in forming a perception of strength in evaluating the new product announcement, to which they are largely unaware.

scholarly journals The impact of Musharakah financing on the monetary policy in the Islamic economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Hatem Adela
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to formulating the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, using the development of the conventional economics, theoretical and mathematical methods. Design/methodology/approach The study based on the inductive and mathematical methods to contribute to economic theory within the methodological framework for Islamic Economics, by using the return rate of Musharakah rather than the interest rate in influence the economic activity and monetary policy. Findings Via replacement, the concept of the interest rate by the return rates of Musharakah. It concludes that the central bank can control the monetary policy, economic activity and the efficient allocation of resources by using the return rates of Musharakah through the framework of Islamic economy. Practical/implications The study is a contribution to formulate the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, where it investigates the impact of return rates of Musharakah on the money market and monetary policy, by the mathematical methods used in the conventional economy. Also, the study illustrates the importance of further studies that examine the methodological framework for Islamic Economics. Originality/value The study aims to contribute to formulating the Islamic economic theory, through the return rate of Musharakah financing instead of the interest rate, and its effectiveness of the monetary policy. As well as reformulating the concepts of the investment function, the present value and the marginal efficiency rate of investment according to the Islamic economy approach.

Does salience matter in investment decision?

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
pp. 1894-1912
Author(s):  
Samra Chaudary
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multigroup Analysis ◽  
Money Managers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The paper takes a behavioral approach by making use of the prospect theory to unveil the impact of salience on short-term and long-term investment decisions. This paper aims to investigate the group differences for two types of investors’ groups, i.e. individual investors and professional investors. Design/methodology/approach The study uses partial least square-based structural equation modeling technique, measurement invariance test and multigroup analysis test on a unique data set of 277 active equity traders which included professional money managers and individual investors. Findings Results showed that salience has a significant positive impact on both short-term and long-term investment decisions. The impact was almost 1.5 times higher for long-term investment decision as compared to short-term decision. Furthermore, multigroup analysis revealed that the two groups (individual investors and professional investors) were statistically significantly different from each other. Research limitations/implications The study has implications for financial regulators, money managers and individual investors as it was found that individual investors suffer more with salience heuristic and may end up with sub-optimal portfolios due to inefficient diversification. Thus, investors should be cautious in fully relying on salience and avoid such bias to improve investment returns. Practical implications The study concludes with a discussion of policy and regulatory implications on how to minimize salience bias to achieve optimum and diversified portfolios. Originality/value The study has significantly contributed to the growing body of applied behavioral research in the discipline of finance.

Impact of regulatory announcements on systemic risk in the Indian telecom sector

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1395-1416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushma Priyadarsini Yalla ◽  
Som Sekhar Bhattacharyya ◽  
Karuna Jain
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Buffering Hypothesis ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Telecom Sector ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Post 1991, given the advent of liberalization and economic reforms, the Indian telecom sector witnessed a remarkable growth in terms of subscriber base and reduced competitive tariff among the service providers. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of regulatory announcements on systemic risk among the Indian telecom firms. Design/methodology/approach This study employed a two-step methodology to measure the impact of regulatory announcements on systemic risk. In the first step, CAPM along with the Kalman filter was used to estimate the daily β (systemic risk). In the second step, event study methodology was used to assess the impact of regulatory announcements on daily β derived from the first step. Findings The results of this study indicate that regulatory announcements did impact systemic risk among telecom firms. The study also found that regulatory announcements either increased or decreased systemic risk, depending upon the type of regulatory announcements. Further, this study estimated the market-perceived regulatory risk premiums for individual telecom firms. Research limitations/implications The regulatory risk premium was either positive or negative, depending upon the different types of regulatory announcements for the telecom sector firms. Thus, this study contributes to the theory of literature by testing the buffering hypothesis in the context of Indian telecom firms. Practical implications The study findings will be useful for investors and policy-makers to estimate the regulatory risk premium as and when there is an anticipated regulatory announcement in the Indian telecom sector. Originality/value This is one of the first research studies in exploring regulatory risk among the Indian telecom firms. The research findings indicate that regulatory risk does exist in the telecom firms of India.

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