Tail events in the FX markets since 1740

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 294-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Abildgren
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Stress Tests ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Tail Events

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent of the so-called “small-sample problem” within quantitative exchange-rate risk management. Design/methodology/approach – The authors take a closer look at the frequency distribution of nominal price changes in the European foreign exchange markets. Findings – The analysis clearly illustrates the risk of seriously underestimating the probability and magnitude of tail events when frequency distributions are derived from fairly short data samples. Practical implications – The authors suggest that financial institutions and regulators should have an eye for the long-term historical perspective when designing sensitivity tests or “worst case” scenarios in relation to risk assessments and stress tests. Originality/value – The authors add to the literature by analysing the distribution of nominal exchange-rate fluctuations on the basis of a unique quarterly data set for ten European exchange-rate pairs covering a time span of 273 years constructed by the authors. To the best of the authors' knowledge this is the first study on nominal exchange-rate changes for a large number of exchange-rate pairs based on quarterly data spanning almost three centuries.

A GM(1,N)-based economic cybernetics model for the high-tech industries in China

Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (5) ◽  
pp. 672-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng-Xin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Patent Application ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Total Output ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
Grey Differential Equation ◽  
Medical Equipments

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose an economic cybernetics model based on the grey differential equation GM(1,N) for China's high-tech industries and provide the necessary support to assist high-tech industries management departments with their policy making. Design/methodology/approach – Based on the principle of grey differential equation GM(1,N), the grey differential equations of five high-tech industries in China are established using the net fixed assets, labor quantity and patent application quantity as cybernetics variables. After the discretization and first-order subtraction reduction to the simultaneous equation of the five grey models, a linear cybernetics model is resulted in. The structure parameters in the cybernetics system show explicit economic significance and can be identified through least square principle. At last, the actual data in 2004-2010 are introduced to empirically analyze the high-tech industrial system in China. Findings – The cybernetics system for China's high-tech industries are stable, observable, and controllable. On the whole, China's high-tech industries show higher output coefficients of the patent application quantity than those of net fixed assets and labor quantity. This suggests that China's industry development mainly depends on technological innovation rather than capital or labor inputs. It is expected that the total output value of China's high-tech industries will grow at an average annual rate of 15 percent in 2011-2015, with contributions of pharmaceuticals, aircraft and spacecraft, electronic and telecommunication equipments, computers and office equipments, medical equipments and meters by 21, 16, 13, 10, and 28 percent, respectively. In addition, pharmaceuticals, as well as medical equipments and meters, present upward proportions in the gross of Chinese high-tech industries significantly. Electronic and telecommunication equipments, plus computers and office equipments exhibit an obvious decreasing proportion. The proportion of the output value of aircraft and spacecraft is basically stable. Practical implications – Empirical analysis results are helpful for related management departments to formulate reasonable industrial policies to keep the sustained and stable development of the high-tech industries in China. Originality/value – Based on the grey differential equation GM(1,N), this research puts forward an economic cybernetics model for the high-tech industries in China. This model is applicable to the economic system with small sample data set.

scholarly journals Financial and economic stability as ‘two sides of a coin’

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 327-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali Nasir ◽  
Mushtaq Ahmad ◽  
Ferhan Ahmad ◽  
Junjie Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Stability And Instability

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a different context for considering issues of financial stability and instability, with reference to economic growth and price stability in particular. Design/methodology/approach – This paper pursued an empirical exploration of six pillars of financial stability, based on a data set for the UK extending from 1985 (Q1) to 2008 (Q2), through the construction of a vector error correction model, including an impulse response function analysis. Findings – The findings show a strong association between the financial and economic stability even in a non-crisis regime. This includes, for example, a strong association exists between the stock market and the real economy; exchange rate appreciation may not provide for long-term real economic growth; inflation does not contribute to real economic growth, both the sensitivity of the economy to yields and a significant lag in transitional effects from financial markets to the real sector; a positive role of credit creation within a non-crisis regime; exchange rate appreciation affects purchasing power; and potential points of linkage between sovereign debt activity and general price levels. Research limitations/implications – The findings should be considered in the context of a concept of the economy as fundamentally dynamic and subject to complex cumulative processes. Practical implications – The findings indicate there is a role for state oversight and intervention within a non-crisis regime based on the complexity of possible interactions that may undermine financial and price stability, with consequences for their association with economic growth. Originality/value – The study provides a new perspective for considering issues of financial stability and instability.

scholarly journals Searching for histogram patterns in USD/ZAR foreign exchange financial time series

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 575-584
Author(s):  
JH Van Rooyen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Pattern Analysis ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Financial Time

This study aims to investigate whether the phenomena found by Shnoll et al. when applying histogram pattern analysis techniques to stochastic processes from chemistry and physics are also present in financial time series, particularly exchange rate data. The phenomena are related to fine structure of non-smoothed frequency distributions drawn from tick high frequency currency exchange rates over a period of one week. Shnoll et al. use the notion of macroscopic fluctuations (MF) to explain the behaviour of sequences of histograms. Histogram patterns in time adhere to several laws that could not be detected when using time series analysis methods. In this study, which is a follow up of research by Van ZylBulitta, VH, Otte, R and Van Rooyen, JH, special emphasis is placed on the histogram pattern analysis of high frequency exchange rate data set. Following previous studies of the Shnoll phenomena from other fields, different steps of the histogram sequence analysis are carried out to determine whether the findings of Shnoll et al. could also be applied to financial market data. The findings presented here widen the understanding of time varying volatility and can aid in financial risk measurement and management. Outcomes of the study include an investigation of time series characteristics, more specifically the formation of discrete states and the repetition of histogram patterns

Exchange rate effects on agricultural exports

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 600-621
Author(s):  
Rui Mao
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Rate Effects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to extend empirical investigations of the relationship between real exchange rates and agricultural exports to the firm-product-country level with the use of disaggregated panel data of China’s food industry. In particular, the study aims to explore heterogeneities in the export response to real exchange rates across firms, destinations and products, as well as to differentiate responses on the intensive and extensive margins. Design/methodology/approach This paper utilizes a merged panel data set of firm-product-country level transaction records of China’s agricultural exports with firm-level survey data of the food industry. Panel regression models are constructed to identify empirical relationships. Findings Real appreciations are found to reduce export quantities and the probability to enter destination markets. These impacts are enhanced in 2005 when China unexpectedly depegged yuan from the USD. In addition, real appreciations in 2005 also reduced the yuan-denominated export price and increased firms’ probability to exit destination markets. Taking the exchange rate reform as a natural experiment, evidence suggests that the negative exchange rate effects on exports are robust to the endogeneity issue. Finally, heterogeneous export responses are identified with respect to firm productivities and ownerships, income levels and locations of destination markets, as well as product groups. Originality/value This paper provides first-hand evidence on how real exchange rates influence agricultural exports at the firm-product-country level. A featured contribution is that China’s exchange rate reform in 2005 is utilized to alleviate the typical concern of endogeneity. Findings may benefit policy makers, for example, by identifying firms most vulnerable to real appreciations.

Transnational immigrant entrepreneurship: effects of home-country entrepreneurial ecosystem factors

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carson Duan ◽  
Bernice Kotey ◽  
Kamaljeet Sandhu
Keyword(s):  
Home Country ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Entrepreneurial Ecosystem ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Immigrant Entrepreneurship ◽  
Case Study Methodology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policies And Programs

PurposeThe purpose of this theoretical paper is to explore how immigrants' home-country entrepreneurial ecosystem (EE) factors impact transnational immigrant entrepreneurs (TIEs). The paper draws on the dual embeddedness and transnational entrepreneurship theories to explore how the home-country EE influences transnational immigrant entrepreneurship (TIE).Design/methodology/approachThis research adopted a qualitative case study methodology involving content analysis of secondary data. It analyzed data set against the existing EE framework to constructively explore the home-country effects.FindingsThe findings reveal that all home-country EE domains and associated factors affect TIEs. The paper established six testable propositions with regard to the home-country EE domains: accessible market, human capital, social culture, infrastructure and business support and government policies. A number of new factors were identified for each home-country EE domain. Finally, the paper provided future research directions.Research limitations/implicationsCare has to be taken in generalizing the findings from this research due to the small sample of contemporary Chinese immigrants in Australia and New Zealand. The propositions also require empirical testing.Practical implicationsThe findings contribute to the TIE literature by identifying new factors of the home-country EE and presenting testable propositions. The results have impact on immigration policies and programs.Social implicationsTransnational immigrant entrepreneurship can be a pathway to help immigrants to integrate into mainstream society. The findings from this article indirectly contribute to immigrant social development.Originality/valueThis original article fills research gaps by analyzing how home-country EE elements affect TIE. It reveals that the EE framework is effective for investigating it.

The determinants of corporate profitability: an investigation of Indian manufacturing firms

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swagatika Nanda ◽  
Ajaya Kumar Panda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Rate Sensitivity ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the firm-specific and macroeconomic determinants of profitability of Indian manufacturing firms. It assesses the main determinants of firm’s profitability in the pre-crisis and post-crisis period from 2000 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach This methodology splits the factors that influence firm profitability in two groups: firm-specific (internal) factors and macroeconomic indicators. It further aims to look at the consistency of the factors in the pre-crisis and post-crisis period. The return on assets and the net profit margin are considered as proxy for corporate profits. The panel generalized least square and panel vector auto-regression model have been employed, and it is observed that the exchange rate seems to have played a major role in the crisis period by explaining the earning quotient for Indian firms. Findings This paper concludes that the firm-specific variables and exchange rate channels are quite relevant in explaining the profitability of Indian manufacturing firms. It accepts the hypotheses that size and liquidity enhances whereas leverage discourages the profitability. Few exceptions have been observed during the crisis period. The study also concludes that in the short run, the changes in exchange rate are not increasing profitability, but in the long run, it increases profitability as the volatility of nominal exchange rate is positively impacting profitability. Moreover, the study finds that the nominal exchange rate index is more informative and explains that profitability is better than real exchange rate index in the case of Indian manufacturing firms over the study period. Research limitations/implications The managers and the policy makers should give utmost importance to the firm-specific determinants, especially after the crisis period, and consider the appropriate exchange rate to evaluate firm performance for making any change in the policy to make any business profitable. Originality/value This study has been conducted over a longer time by using advanced panel data analysis techniques on the recent data. The study period properly captures the crisis time and the research includes different selection of profitability that highlights corporate earnings pattern. Moreover, validation of the exchange rate sensitivity of profitability over nominal and real exchange rate increases the robustness of the study. Moreover, on Indian manufacturing firms, the study is very significant and unique.

Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-44
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate risk and export at commodity level for the Indian case.Design/methodology/approachThe monthly panel data used for analysis are at a disaggregated level, which cover around 100 products, encompassing all merchandize sectors for the period spanning from 2012:12 to 2017:11. To measure the exchange rate volatility, the authors use real as well as nominal exchange rate concepts and predict the volatility of exchange rate using the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic-based model. They use pooled mean group, mean group and common correlated effects mean group estimator that is suitable for the objectives and data frequency.FindingsThe empirical analysis indicates both short- and long-term negative effects of exchange rate variations on exporting. Specifically, in the long run, real exchange rate as well as nominal exchange rate volatility has significant effects on export performance, yet, the effects of uncertainty of nominal exchange rate is much severe and intense. In the short run, it is the nominal exchange rate uncertainty that hurts exports from India. Nevertheless, the short-run effect is much lesser than the long-run, supporting the argument that the short-term exchange rate risk can be hedged, at least partially, through financial instruments; however, uncertainty of the long-term horizon cannot be hedged easily and cost-effectively.Practical implicationsReducing uncertainty and attaining stability in exchange rate and price level should be an important policy objective in developing countries such as India to achieve higher export growth, both in the short and long run.Originality/valueUnlike previous studies, this paper tests the relationship using micro-level data and uses advanced econometric techniques that are likely to provide more precise information regarding the association between exchange rate volatility and trade flows.

scholarly journals Impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (50) ◽  
pp. 279-294
Author(s):  
Aiza Shabbir ◽  
Shazia Kousar ◽  
Syeda Azra Batool
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test. Findings The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market. Research limitations/implications Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set. Originality/value This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers.

scholarly journals Layer histogram patterns in financial time series

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-146
Author(s):  
Verena Helen Van Zyl-Bulitta ◽  
R. Otte ◽  
JH Van Rooyen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Pattern Analysis ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Macroscopic Fluctuations

This study aims to investigate whether the phenomena found by Shnoll et al. when applying histogram pattern analysis techniques to stochastic processes from chemistry and physics are also present in financial time series, particularly exchange rate and index data. The phenomena are related to fine structure of non-smoothed frequency distributions drawn from statistically insufficient samples of changes and their patterns in time. Shnoll et al. use the notion of macroscopic fluctuations (MF) to explain the behavior of sequences of histograms. Histogram patterns in time adhere to several laws that could not be detected when using time series analysis methods. In this study special emphasis is placed on the histogram pattern analysis of high frequency exchange rate data set. Following previous studies of the Shnoll phenomena from other fields, different steps of the histogram sequence analysis are carried out to determine whether the findings of Shnoll et al. could also be applied to financial market data. The findings presented here widen the understanding of time varying volatility and can aid in financial risk measurement and management. Outcomes of the study include an investigation of time series characteristics, more specifically the formation of discrete states.

The employability skills of graduates and employers’ options in Portugal

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (9) ◽  
pp. 1097-1111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fátima Suleman ◽  
Ana Maria Costa Laranjeiro
Keyword(s):  
Human Resource Development ◽  
Human Resource ◽  
Technical Skills ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Shared Responsibility ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Remedial Strategies

Purpose Available literature overlooks the factors that affect employers’ opinions of the skills graduates bring to the labour market. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the perception of graduates’ skills and the employers’ anticipative and remedial strategies. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative multiple case study is used and data were gathered from interviews with human resource managers in ten firms in Portugal. The data set includes information on perceptions of graduates’ skills, solutions for the acquisition of skills, hiring and training policies, and practices associated with university–industry linkages. Findings Almost all the employers sampled are unsatisfied with graduates’ preparation in soft skills and other personal traits. Some report skill shortages and gaps in technical skills that result in training costs. The perception of technical skills varies according to anticipative and remedial strategies. Research limitations/implications This is an explorative study with a very small sample of firms. However, it is a first step towards further research into whether the perception of graduates’ skills is affected by anticipative and remedial strategies implemented by firms within a particular human resource development system. Practical implications It is argued that the responsibility for graduates’ employability should be shared. Practitioners should learn how to interact with higher education, researchers should profit from insights into typologies of employers’ strategies on skill formation, and policy makers should understand that employers are heterogeneous and there is no one-size-fits-all solution. Social implications Universities, employers and policy makers should understand that the employability of graduates presupposes shared responsibility. Originality/value The relationship between the strategies employers adopt to access skills and their perception of graduates’ skills is a quite underexplored topic.

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