Currency returns during democratic transition: evidence from Tunisia

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 966-979
Author(s):  
Ghadi Saad ◽  
Taoufik Bouraoui
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Effects ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the question whether democratic transition elections influence currency returns. Also, the paper examines the behavior of the currency market around these elections in Tunisia. Design/methodology/approach Empirical data are collected from the International Monetary Fund, the Central Bank of Tunisia and the Tunisian stock market websites. The paper employs event study analysis using a market model and investigates abnormal currency returns around the four election events that occurred during the period of democratic transition in Tunisia (2011–2015). A robustness test is also conducted to control for monetary policy effects. Findings The results indicate that democratic transition does impact currency returns. The authors did not find any significant effect on the events dates (t0). However, event windows around the elections days reacted significantly to the events. The authors notice a significant decrease in cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) at event periods leading up to the elections. Post-event windows perceived negative CARs in the first and second election, and positive CARs in the last two elections. The authors also find that the change in the victors of the elections does not cause major differences to CARs. Further, the authors do not find significant results when controlling for inflation and interest rate. Originality/value There is no evidence yet on how democratic transition elections can affect currency returns. Given that currency is a leading indicator of the performance of the financial sector, this paper should provide policymakers with new evidence on the response of currency returns to democratic transition.

scholarly journals Daily abnormal price changes and trading strategies in the FOREX

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 211-222
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Alex Plastun
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Inefficiency ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Abnormal Profits ◽  
New Evidence

PurposeThis paper explores abnormal price changes in the FOREX by using both daily and intraday data on the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and EURJPY exchange rates over the period 01.01.2008–31.12.2018.Design/methodology/approachIt applies a dynamic trigger approach to detect abnormal price changes and then various statistical methods, including cumulative abnormal returns analysis, to test the following hypotheses: the intraday behaviour of hourly returns on overreaction days is different from that on normal days (H1), there are detectable patterns in intraday price dynamics on days with abnormal price changes (H2) and on the following days (H3).FindingsThe results suggest that there are statistically significant differences between intraday dynamics on days with abnormal price changes and normal days respectively; also, prices tend to change in the direction of the abnormal change during that day, but move in the opposite direction on the following day. Finally, there exist trading strategies that generate abnormal profits by exploiting the detected anomalies, which can be seen as evidence of market inefficiency.Originality/valueNew evidence on abnormal price changes and related trading strategies in the FOREX.

The effect of the imposition of a public reprimand on the stock price of companies in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emie Famieza Zainudin ◽  
Hafiza Aishah Hashim ◽  
Shahnaz Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
A Company

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effect of the imposition of public reprimands on the underlying stock prices of companies in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach Data on 148 companies that received public reprimands during the period from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the Bursa Malaysia website to analyse the market reactions to the imposition of public reprimands. Findings Based on a market model of abnormal returns, the empirical result showed that the imposition of a public reprimand had a negative impact on a company’s stock price. Moreover, when a market model of average abnormal returns (AAR) was used, the result indicated that companies that had received a public reprimand had a negative AAR value. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study have implications for shareholders in making their investment decisions because they can switch their investments to other companies and markets after a company in which they are interested or have made an investment has received a public reprimand. Originality/value There is limited research on the imposition of public reprimands and the effect that it has on companies in developing countries. Hence, this study contributes to research in this area by providing evidence on the effect of public reprimand on stock price reactions in the context of a developing country, namely, Malaysia.

The litigation of tax benefit preservation plans

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Jason Boulton ◽  
Terry D. Nixon
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Shareholder Wealth ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Matched Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Potential Alternative

Purpose The authors study the shareholder wealth effects of the adoption and subsequent litigation confirming the validity of shareholder right plans that are enacted to protect a firm’s net operating loss (NOL) carry forwards (tax benefit preservation plans (TBPPs)). The purpose of this paper is to expand the understanding of nontraditional shareholder rights plans, which are becoming increasingly more common. Design/methodology/approach This paper considers abnormal returns around TBPP adoptions and Delaware Court rulings that validated their use. The authors study 118 plans adopted between 1998 and 2011. Abnormal returns are measured using both a market model and a performance-matched sample. Findings The authors find that abnormal returns are negative at the announcement of a new TBPP. However, the full impact of plan adoption on share prices is not evident until the Delaware Courts validated their use. The Delaware Court rulings in the case of Selectica, Inc. v. Versata Enterprises, Inc. and Trilogy, Inc. are associated with additional negative wealth effects for both prior plan adopters and the firms most likely to consider adopting a plan. These results suggest that entrenchment concerns tend to outweigh the protection of NOL carry forwards when firms adopt TBPPs. Originality/value This study was the first to consider the adoption of TBPPs. Currently, it is the only study that considers Delaware Court rulings related to these plans, which allows us to successfully disentangle the entrenchment hypothesis from the potential alternative hypothesis that the negative announcement period returns are driven by investors updating their expectations for firm performance.

scholarly journals Horizontal and vertical takeover and sell-off announcements: Abnormal returns differ by industry

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan K.H. Gross ◽  
Hagen Lindstädt
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Shareholder Wealth ◽  
Specific Pattern ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Data Points

We begin with the hypothesis that shareholder-wealth effects of corporate transactions differ depending on (a) the specific industry, (b) whether they are horizontal or vertical, and (c) whether they are integrations (takeovers) or disintegrations (partial sell-offs). A standard event study analysis for cumulative abnormal returns based on the market model is conducted for 309 data-points from 227 transaction announcements. We find that abnormal returns indeed do significantly depend on the transaction profile (horizontal vs. vertical and integration vs. disintegration) and industry. One main result is the observation that the capital market shows distinctive preferences for either an integration or disintegration strategy for vertical as well as for horizontal transactions. The specific pattern of this preference differs according to industry

Financial institutions mergers: a strategy choice of wealth maximisation and economic value

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 495-529
Author(s):  
Mohamad Hassan ◽  
Evangelos Giouvris
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Event Window ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Merger Announcement

Purpose This study Investigates Shareholders' value adjustment in response to financial institutions (FIs) merger announcements in the immediate event window and in the extended event window. This study also investigates accounting measures performance, comparison of post-merger to pre-merger, including several cash flow measures and not just profitability measures, as the empirical literature review suggests. Finally, the authors examine FIs mergers orientations of diversification and focus create more value for shareholders (in the immediate announcement window and several months afterward) and/or generates better cash flows, profitability and less credit risk. Design/methodology/approach This study examines FIs merger effect on bidders’ shareholder’s value and on their observed performance. This examination deploys three techniques simultaneously: a) an event study analysis, to estimate and calculate abnormal returns (ARs) and cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) in the narrow windows of the merger announcement, b) buy and hold event study analysis, to estimate ARs in the wider window of the event, +50 to +230 days after the merger announcement and c) an observed performance analysis, of financial and capital efficiency measures before and after the merger announcement; return on equity, liquidity, cost to income ratio, capital to total assets ratio, net loans to total loans, credit risk, loans to deposits ratio, other expenses and total assets, economic value addition, weighted average cost of capital and return on invested capital. Deal criteria of value, mega-deals, strategic orientation (as in Ansoff (1980) growth strategies), acquiring bank size and payment method are set as individually as control variables. Findings Results show that FIs mergers destroy share value for the bidding firms pursuing a market penetration strategy. Market development and product development strategies enable shareholders’ value creation in short and long horizons. Diversification strategies do not influence bidding shareholders’ value. Local bank to bank mergers create shareholders’ value and enhance liquidity and economic value in the short run. Bank to bank cross border mergers create value for bidders’ in the long term but are associated with high costs and higher risks. Originality/value A significant advancement over the current literature is in assessing mergers, not only for bank bidders but also for the three pillars FIs of the financial sector; banks, real-estate companies and investment companies mergers. It is an improvement over current finance literature because it deploys two different strategies in the analysis. At a univariate level, shareholder value creation and market reaction to merger announcements are examined over short (−5 or +5 days) and long (+230 days) windows of the event. Followed by regressing, the resultant CARs and BHARs over financial performance variables at the multivariate level.

Cryptocurrency bubble risk and the FOMC announcements during COVID-19 black swan event

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anis Jarboui ◽  
Emna Mnif
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Federal Open Market Committee ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose After the COVID-19 outbreak, the Federal Reserve has undertaken several monetary policies to alleviate the pandemic consequences on the markets. This paper aims to evaluate the effects of the Federal Reserve monetary policy on the cryptocurrency dynamics during the COVID19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach We examine the response and feedback effects via an event study methodology. For this purpose, abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) around the first FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announcement related to the COVID-19 pandemic for the top five cryptocurrencies are explored. We, further investigate the effect of the eight FOMC statement announcements during the COVID19 pandemic on these cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Litecoin, and Ripple). In the above-mentioned crypto-currency markets, we investigate the presence of bubbles by using the PSY test. We then examine the concordance of the dates of these bubbles with the dates of the FOMC announcements. Findings The empirical results show that the first FOMC event has a negative significant effect after 4 days of the announcement date for all studied cryptocurrencies except Tether. The results also indicate that cumulative abnormal returns are significant during the event windows of (−3,8), (−3,9), and (−3,10). Besides, we find that Bitcoin, Ethereum and, Litecoin lived short bubbles lasting for a few days. However, Ripple and Tether markets present no bubbles and no explosive periods. Research limitations/implications This paper presents trained proof that FOMC announcements have a positive effect on volatility's predictive capacity. This work therefore promotes the study of the data quality of volatility in future research as well. Practical implications The justified effect of the FOMC announcements on cryptocurrency as a speculative asset has practical implications for investors in building their trading strategies in anticipation of the next FOMC announcement. Therefore, this study implies that the FOMC announcements contain very relevant information for investors in the cryptocurrency market. This research may not only encourage a better understanding of the evolution of the expectations of policymakers, but also facilitate a better understanding of how these expectations are developed. Originality/value The COVID-19 pandemic has disturbed the stability of financial markets, inciting the Fed to take some monetary regulations. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first one that analyses the response of five major cryptocurrencies to FOMC announcements during COVID 19 pandemic and associates these dates with bubble occurrences.

The impact of qualified audit opinion on stock returns: an empirical study at Amman stock exchange

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Bayo Flees ◽  
Sulaiman Mouselli
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Going Concern ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Audit Opinions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of qualified audit opinions on the returns of stocks listed at Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) after the introduction of the recent amendments by the International Auditing and Assurance Standard Board (IAASB) on audits reporting and conclusions. It further investigates if results differ between first time qualified and sequenced qualifications, and between plain qualified opinion and qualifications with going concern. Design/methodology/approach Audit opinions’ announcements and stock returns data are collected from companies’ annual reports for the fiscal years 2016 to 2019 while stock returns are computed from stock closing prices published at ASE website. The authors apply the event study approach and use the market model to calculate normal returns. Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) and average abnormal returns (AARs) are computed for all qualified audit opinions’ announcements. Findings The empirical evidence suggests that investors at ASE do not react to qualified audit opinions announcements. That is, the authors find an insignificant impact of qualified audit opinion announcements on stock returns using both CAR and AAR estimates. The results are robust to first time and sequenced qualifications, and for qualifications with going concern. Results are also robust to the use of risk adjusted market model. Research limitations/implications The insignificant impact of qualified audit opinions on stock returns have two potential conflicting research implications. First, the new amendments introduced to auditors’ report made them more informative and reduce the negative signals contained in the qualified opinions. That is, investors are now aware of the real causes of qualifications and not overreacting to the qualified opinion. Second, the documented insignificant impact confirms that ASE is not a semi-strong form efficient. Practical implications The apparent excessive use of qualifications should ring the bell on whether auditors misuse their power or companies are really in trouble. Hence, the Jordanian regulatory bodies need to warn auditors against the excessive use of qualifications on the one hand, and to raise the awareness of investors on the implications of auditors’ opinions on the other hand. Originality/value This study is innovative in twofold. First, it explores the impact of qualified audit opinions on stock returns after the introduction of new amendments by IAASB at ASE. In addition, it uses event study approach and distinguishes between first time qualified and sequenced qualifications, and between plain qualified opinion and qualifications with going concern. The results are consistent with efficient market theory and behavioral finance explanations.

CEO social capital and asset sell-offs

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Danso ◽  
Margarita Kaprielyan ◽  
Md Miran Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Capital ◽  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Chief Executive ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Announcement Returns

PurposeRecent studies explore how chief executive officer (CEO) social capital affects corporate decision-making. Well-connected CEOs can have greater access to information, which can lead to better corporate decisions or permit them to amass power from hierarchy status and make self-serving decisions. This study examines whether investors perceive CEO social capital as a signal of good decision-making (assuming information asymmetry) surrounding asset sell-off events.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use multivariate regression analysis to examine the effect of CEO social capital on the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of the asset buyers and sellers. CARs are estimated using a market model in the period proximate to asset sell-off announcements.FindingsThe authors find that CEO social capital is positively associated with announcement returns of the asset sellers. Moreover, the positive effect of CEO social capital on announcement returns is more pronounced for sellers facing greater information asymmetry. An analysis of post-announcement stock performance reveals that the seller CEO social capital is associated with additional value generated for the shareholders of the seller after a month from the announcement date, especially if the transaction price is disclosed. Overall, findings are consistent with the argument that CEO social capital provides value in high information asymmetry environment.Originality/valueTo the authors' knowledge this is the first study to examine the effect of CEO social capital on the shareholders' wealth created by divestitures.

Do firms harvest from political connections during general elections? Case of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 258-273
Author(s):  
Ayesha Ashraf ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
Khurram Abbas ◽  
Qamar Uz Zaman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Political Connections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Connected Group ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of general elections on the stock returns of the politically connected group affiliated firms of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the market model to assess the impact of political connections (PCs) on abnormal stock returns, before and after election events. We have used share price data of non-financial firms of Pakistan for the years 2008-2013. Findings It has been found that behavior of cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) is significantly different for standalone and politically connected group affiliated firms. The results reveal that CAARs of politically connected group affiliated firms have experienced less deviation as compared to stand alone firms. Therefore, it is argued that politically connected group firms may reduce the impact of political uncertainty on stock returns in comparison to stand alone firms. Practical implications This study is helpful for policy regulators of Pakistan to devise appropriate policies to maintain a level playing field for politically connected and standalone firms. Originality/value This study provides a new dimension to understand the role and association of PCs and general elections with stock markets returns.

New CEOs’ previous experience and acquisition performance

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 745-758 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heejin Woo
Keyword(s):  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Upper Echelon ◽  
Acquisition Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Strategies ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
Industry Experience

Purpose This study aims to investigate how new CEOs’ previous experiences in other organizations and other industries create value in acquisitions. Drawing on the upper echelon perspective, this study theorizes that the multiorganizational experience of new CEOs is positively associated with acquisition performance and, in particular, that the multi-industry experience of new CEOs leads to better performance in diversifying acquisitions than in related acquisitions. While new CEOs without multiorganizational experience undergo a cognitive entrenchment in firm-specific experience, new CEOs with multiorganizational experience can lead acquisitions with more flexibility and agility. Design/methodology/approach Acquisition and organizational data were drawn from the US manufacturing industries (SIC 20-39) between 2008 and 2010. The event study method was used to test hypotheses. In 346 acquisitions made by 139 firms, acquisition performance was measured according to cumulative abnormal returns. Findings Consistent with the hypotheses, the multiorganizational experience of new CEOs was positively associated with acquisition performance and, in particular, the multi-industry experience of new CEOs led to better performance in diversifying acquisitions than in related acquisitions. Originality/value This paper contributes to the CEO literature and acquisition literature by suggesting that the multiorganizational experience of new CEOs can be a valuable source of competitive advantages, particularly when implementing corporate strategies involving interorganizational integration processes.

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