Kazakhstan poll will be about stability not succession

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Assembly

Significance The vote comes amid an unprecedented economic downturn caused by a combination of factors: low oil prices, recession in Russia and slowdown in China. President Nursultan Nazarbayev called early elections in January in a bid to maintain social stability until oil prices stabilise or increase. His personal credibility is less at risk than that of government members directly in charge of the economy, and one way of deflecting criticism would be to get the new parliament to dismiss Prime Minister Karim Massimov. Impacts The Majilis will play a marginal role in decision-making, and despite its apparent dominance, Nur Otan will have little say. The few remaining opposition groups will be subjected to harassment and prosecution to prevent them mobilising public support. Nur Otan will win local assembly elections taking place simultaneously.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

Mongolia mine move raises nationalisation fears

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Mining Company ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Main Obstacle ◽  
The Government

Subject The sale of the Erdenet mine. Significance The day before parliamentary elections in June last year, Prime Minister Saikhanbileg Chimed announced the sale of 49% of shares held by the Russian government in the Erdenet Mining Corporation and the Mongolrostsvetmet mining company to Mongolia Copper Corporation, an unknown private Mongolian company. Subsequent parliamentary inquiry concluded that the sale was unconstitutional and the government ordered the shares transferred to the state on February 16 this year. The government’s actions received wide public support while polls reveal that the electorate views corruption as the main obstacle to Mongolia’s development Impacts Talk of 'nationalisation' in the Western media threatens to derail Mongolia's efforts to fix its image and attract foreign investors. The unusual circumstances of the sale raise suspicions of corruption and collusion between Mongolia's previous government and largest bank. The new government's will to scrutinise sale demonstrates the strength of Mongolia’s democracy.

India will push back on China’s influence in Nepal

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Sphere Of Influence ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
India And China

Subject Chinese and Indian interest in Nepal. Significance China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is dominating Nepal’s agenda. Until a decade ago, Nepal was clearly within India’s sphere of influence. Nepali Prime Minister KP Oli in April made a three-day state visit to Delhi and in June made a six-day state visit to Beijing. Impacts The governing Nepal Communist Party will be at risk of a split, especially during negotiations over a new chair in two years’ time. Campaigning in nearby Bhutan’s elections later this year is likely to be dominated by debate over the country's ties with India and China. India and China may seek mutual easing of trade barriers as part of efforts to improve bilateral economic ties.

Juba's intractability prevents South Sudan's recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
War Crimes ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Livestock Farming ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Donors

Significance South Sudan's war-blighted economy is expected to contract by 3.5% in 2017, compared with 13.8% last year, thanks to modest increases in oil prices. Persistent reports of corruption and suspected war crimes perpetrated by government forces have exhausted much of the goodwill from international donors. Economic and humanitarian conditions are perilous for many of the population. Impacts Any macroeconomic improvements are at risk if the protracted civil conflict continues. Livestock farming, agriculture and urban subsistence will remain sources of basic economic resilience. The threat of sanctions against Kiir is unlikely to alter his stance given that most of his assets are based in the region.

Confrontation with Iraq’s militias may come to a head

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Double Hit ◽  
Will Force

Significance This followed five rocket attacks on the US-led coalition in the last two weeks, which killed two US and one UK citizen. It also came two days after Kurdish President Barham Salih named Adnan al-Zurfi, a US-linked Shia nationalist politician, as the new prime minister-designate. Impacts Washington may hold back its response to attacks in order to further Zurfi’s ratification. A massive double hit from low oil prices and COVID-19 will force Iraq to seek more international aid. A Zurfi government could improve Iraq’s chances of gaining Western and Gulf financial assistance.

Support for Thai government will be heavily strained

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
Currency Management ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thai government's clampdown on the opposition and struggle with various crises. Significance The Constitutional Court last week dissolved the opposition Future Forward Party for receiving an illegal loan from its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit. Future Forward had in recent months emerged as a vigorous opponent of the military-backed government. Army Chief Apirat Kongsompong and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha may be relieved to be rid of the party, but there is unlikely to be any let-up in opposition pressure as the administration grapples with crises relating to military corruption, water shortage and infectious disease. Impacts The military will try to help the government manage an approaching drought and the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. The central bank will step up currency management to keep Thai exports as competitive as possible amid the economic downturn. Erstwhile Future Forward MPs may form a new opposition party.

COVID-19 will likely widen Spanish-Catalan divisions

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Plan ◽  
Political Consensus ◽  
Reconstruction Period ◽  
The Eu

Subject COVID-19 impact on Spanish politics. Significance Spain is one of the world’s worst-affected countries by COVID-19. Its economic recovery will also be slower and more disjointed than elsewhere. In order to address these unprecedented challenges, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is seeking to negotiate a cross-party agreement -- known as the Moncloa Pacts -- involving all non-extreme parties. The talks aim to create a broad political consensus over how to tackle Spain’s social and economic reconstruction, making it easier and faster to implement policy. Impacts A bipartisan pact would likely boost Sanchez’s public support, given that he is the leader pushing for national cooperation. The existence of a pact would strengthen Sanchez’s push for the EU to share the burden of economic reconstruction. The EU’s failure to implement a coordinated economic plan for the reconstruction period would fuel Euroscepticism in Spain.

Ukrainian cabinet faces tough economic conditions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Competing Demands ◽  
Public Approval ◽  
The Imf

Subject The economic challenges facing the Ukrainian government. Significance Ukraine's new prime minister, Volodymyr Groisman, must manage competing demands, domestic and external. External lenders, principally the IMF, are pressing him to carry out overdue reforms that are likely to bring pain to the average Ukrainian hoping for swift improvements in living standards. As well as the ongoing conflict in the east, structural problems are constraining growth. Impacts A resumption in IMF payments will help the balance of payments and work towards currency stability. Slow and patchy recovery is unlikely to translate into higher wages and incomes. The Groisman government is unlikely to win public approval if conditions improve. Its survival will be at risk if there is no discernable change for the better.

Russia will prioritise economic stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister

Significance The event typically serves as a barometer of economic confidence in Russia. Last year, few significant deals were announced, and foreign delegates were fewer in number than usual. This year, the message was that the Kremlin will focus on ensuring economic stability in a time of geopolitical turbulence rather than wide-ranging reforms. Impacts Kremlin will continue to hope and gamble on a return to high oil prices. Russia will retaliate against the continuation of EU sanctions decided on June 22 with an agriculture import ban. Speculation will grow over former finance minister Alexei Kudrin's possible return to politics as prime minister.

New Ethiopian cabinet gears up for next economic plan

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Middle Income Country ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Enterprises

Subject Ethiopia's new government line-up. Significance Following his re-election for a five-year term in early October, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced a cabinet reshuffle. The changes come amid final preparations for the second phase of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), an ambitious development strategy that seeks to turn Ethiopia into a middle-income country by 2025. Impacts Ethiopia is likely to issue a new euro-bond to mobilise additional funds for GTP II. Sovereign debt levels are manageable, but off-budget loans to state enterprises may cause future distress. Low oil prices are beneficial for managing balance-of-payments and foreign-exchange strains.

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