Delhi polls to test Modi policy and AAP promises

Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won only three seats and the Congress none. The results end the run of three successive state election victories for the BJP, raising doubts about the appeal of Modi's 'pro-business' reform agenda. They also raise questions over whether an AAP government is up to the challenge of promoting inclusive development for Delhi's 20 million inhabitants. Impacts Full statehood for Delhi would help local authorities meet the city's economic needs, but the central government is unlikely to agree. Modi's government will come under pressure to replace reform rhetoric with concrete policies. Bihar will prove the next most important political test for the BJP's hope for one-party dominance.

Subject Anti-Dalit violence -- and its impact on politics and Modi's prospects. Significance Cow protection vigilante groups connected with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have carried out a slew of violent attacks against Dalits (low castes) in recent months, the latest in Modi's home-state of Gujarat in July. Clumsy handling of the attacks has provoked a backlash on the streets and in parliament, forcing Modi into a public condemnation of these vigilantes and the ouster of Gujarat's BJP Chief Minister Anandi Patel. Impacts Reducing caste discrimination is key to promoting truly inclusive development in India. Losing the Dalit vote-base would harm the BJP's prospects in the 2019 national elections. Anti-Dalit atrocities, now widely publicised through social media, damage India's reputation among investors.


Significance The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won only 58. The result has implications for Modi's economic agenda and the broader use of identity politics for electoral gain. Impacts State-level cooperation for Modi's reform agenda could decline. Public protests against the BJP's political and cultural agendas are likely to intensify. This may generate fresh criticism from key financial institutions such as credit ratings agencies.


Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.


Significance He was elected on June 9 with a record majority of nearly 68%, after stepping down as prime minister in January. The MPP now holds all the highest offices: the presidency, the office of the prime minister and the office of the speaker of parliament. Impacts Development plans and government finances will rely on rising copper prices. Despite high vaccination levels, COVID-19 is spreading and calls for more lockdowns are growing; these would threaten economic recovery. Beijing will see Khurelsukh as friendlier than his predecessors, but significant concessions to China are unlikely.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 602-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Michael Greenhalgh ◽  
Kevin Muldoon-Smith ◽  
Sophie Angus

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the introduction of the business rates retention scheme (BRRS) in England which transferred financial liability for backdated appeals to LAs. Under the original scheme, business rates revenue, mandatory relief and liability for successful appeals is spilt 50/50 between central government and local government which both share the rewards of growth and bear the risk of losses. Design/methodology/approach The research adopts a microanalysis approach into researching local government finance, conducting a case study of Leeds, to investigate the impact of appeals liability and reveal disparities in impact, through detailed examination of multiple perspectives in one of the largest cities in the UK. Findings The case study reveals that Leeds, despite having a buoyant commercial economy driven by retail and service sector growth, has been detrimentally impacted by BRRS as backdated appeals have outweighed uplift in business rates income. Fundamentally BRRS is not a “one size fits all” model – it results in winners and losers – which will be exacerbated if local authorities get to keep 100 per cent of their business rates from 2020. Research limitations/implications LAs’ income is more volatile as a consequence of both the rates retention and appeals liability aspects of BRRS and will become more so with the move to 100 per cent retention and liability. Practical implications Such volatility impairs the ability of local authorities to invest in growth at the same time as providing front line services over the medium term – precisely the opposite of what BRRS was intended to do. It also incentivises the construction of new floorspace, which generates risks overbuilding and exacerbating over-supply. Originality/value The research reveals the significant impact of appeals liability on LAs’ business rates revenues which will be compounded with the move to a fiscally neutral business rates system and 100 per cent business rates retention by 2020.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-167
Author(s):  
Harun Harun ◽  
David Carter ◽  
Abu Taher Mollik ◽  
Yi An

Purpose This paper aims to critically explore the forces and critical features relating to the adoption of a new reporting and budgeting system (RBS) in Indonesian local governments. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on an intensive analysis of document sources and interview scripts around the institutionalization of RBS by the Indonesian government and uses the adaption of Dillard et al. (2004) institutional model in informing its findings. Findings The authors find that at the national level, the key drivers in RBS adoption were a combination of exogenous economic and coercive pressures and the wish to mimic accounting reforms in developed nations. At the local government level, the internalization of RBS is a response to a legal obligation imposed by the central government. Despite the RBS adoption has strengthened the transparency of local authorities reports – it limits the roles of other members of citizens in determining how local government budgets are allocated. Research limitations/implications The results of the study should be understood in the historical and institutional contexts of organizations observed. Practical implications The authors reinforce the notion that accounting as a business language dominates narratives and conversations surrounding the nature of government reporting and budgeting systems and how resource allocation is formulated and practiced. This should remind policymakers in other developing nations that any implementation of a new accounting technology should consider institutional capacities of public sector organizations and how the new technology benefits the public. Social implications The authors argue that the dominant role of international financial authorities in the policymaking and implementation of RBS challenges the aim of autonomy policies, which grant greater roles for local authorities and citizens in determining the nature of the budgets and operation of local authorities. Originality/value This study extends institutional theory by adapting the Dillard et al. (2004) model in explaining the forces, actors and critical features of a new accounting system adoption by local governments.


Subject E-commerce in India. Significance Following nationwide protests from small traders in late 2014, key sections of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government have demanded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi act against India's rapidly growing e-commerce platforms. Particular targets are the largest e-commerce players, mostly Indian, but including Amazon India, which have benefitted from large infusions of foreign capital and stand accused of side-stepping India's strict limits on foreign investment in multi-brand retail. Impacts Any improvement in transport and distribution infrastructure will boost e-commerce. Proliferation of mobile and banking facilities is key to expanding online retail. Small traders will oppose the expansion of e-commerce, causing greater political losses for the BJP than any other party.


Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.


Significance The cabinet enters office just in time to host a fresh visit from the IMF, expected later this month. Despite another landslide victory in parliamentary elections on April 24, Prime Minister and Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) leader Aleksandar Vucic has been in no rush to form his next government. With parliament dissolved in early March, this has been a wasted year for reforms, economic or other. The next government must start working effectively if it is to make up for this, even partly. Impacts Dusan Vujovic, confirmed as finance minister, will remain the focal point for implementing the SBA. A new law on financing local government is likely to be adopted in late August or early September. This will transfer a portion of revenues from income tax from local authorities to the central government. The new government will need to come up with a less ambitious plan for public sector redundancies in 2016 and 2017.


Subject Forthcoming state elections. Significance Legislative assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala states, and the Union Territory of Puducherry, will be held between April 4 and May 19. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a strong contender only in Assam. The overall results will have a significant bearing on his economic reform agenda. Impacts A communal campaign by the BJP in West Bengal would prevent an alliance with the TMC. The GST and land reform bills will not pass until parliamentary gridlock ends. Poor showing in forthcoming polls will dampen investor confidence in Modi.


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