Libyan unity government could curb public spending

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Fiscal Health ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Annual Budget ◽  
Spending Cuts

Significance The two largest oil ports, Ras Lanuf and Es Sider -- with a combined capacity of 600,000 barrels per day (b/d) -- are still closed due to fighting between rival factions, even though the UN-sponsored dialogue for a unity government is progressing. Libya is heavily dependent on oil and gas exports; 95% of its annual budget is generated from hydrocarbons. The decline in world oil prices since mid-2014, and the likelihood that oil will remain below 70 dollars per barrel in 2015, mean that Libya will further drain its foreign exchange reserves -- or make large spending cuts. The former is the easier choice. Impacts Financing from foreign reserves has been a policy since June 2014, but it is unclear how much of it has been spent. The use of foreign exchange reserves will prevent a budget crisis in 2015. Over the medium term, fiscal health will deteriorate.

Angolan government will push for oil sector boost

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector

Significance This is the first major test of recent legislative and institutional reforms as President Joao Lourenco’s government looks to bring in new players and revitalise the sector. New exploration is badly needed to restore dwindling production, alongside measures to monetise gas reserves and smaller oil fields, in addition to the large deep-water fields that have traditionally attracted oil majors. Impacts New oil discoveries are the best short-to-medium term hope for shoring up Angola’s foreign exchange reserves. If successful, the licensing round could bring a new wave of offshore exploration and deliver a boost to ports and services industries. The ANPG hopes to put new discoveries on production from 2026 to replace output as existing fields decline. Activity in southern Angola will also affect sentiment in neighbouring Namibia, where oil majors have recently taken new acreage.

Nigeria Eurobonds will ease short-term budget pressure

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Special Drawing ◽  
Special Drawing Rights ◽  
External Borrowing

Significance This comes a month after the National Assembly approved an external borrowing plan of USD6.2bn in August. Also, the IMF has approved the allocation of USD3.35bn in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to boost Nigeria’s foreign reserves. Combined, these have provided a modest boost to Nigeria’s faltering foreign-exchange reserves. Impacts The proceeds from the Eurobonds sale will form a significant part of funding the 2022 budget. The Eurobonds and SDR allocation, by boosting reserves, could help narrow the gap between formal and informal exchange rates. There will likely be another Eurobond sale in 2022 as well as more multilateral and bilateral loans. Nigeria’s weak tax collection infrastructure will not generate substantially improved revenues from expected growth.

Trade deficit looms over Algerian dinar depreciation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Cost Cutting ◽  
Finance Law ◽  
The Government

Significance Plunging oil and gas revenue have created a dauntingly large budget deficit and the rapid erosion of foreign exchange reserves. To deal with the situation, the government on July 22 approved a package of measures in its mid-year interim budget, the Complementary Finance Law (LFC). They include changes to the tax system to incentivise productive activity and penalise importers, as well as a fiscal amnesty aimed at bringing the informal sector into the regular economy. Impacts The fall in fiscal and export revenues will heavily deplete the budgetary and foreign exchange reserves, albeit from relatively high levels. The government will have to consider more vigorous cost-cutting and revenue-raising measures in the 2016 budget. The resulting economic pressure will exacerbate the tense political situation regarding the ailing president's future and succession.

Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

MÜASİR ŞƏRAİTDƏ AZƏRBAYCANIN VALYUTA SİYASƏTİNİN TƏKMİLLƏŞDİRİLMƏSİ VƏZİFƏLƏRİ VƏ İSTİQAMƏTLƏRİ

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (05) ◽  
pp. 122-125
Author(s):  
Kamil Sayavush Demirli ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Transit Service ◽  
Gas Balance

Key words: monetary policy, commodity trade foreign exchange reserves, balance of payments, oil and gas, balance, transportation, transit service, international, capital, perspective

Policy shocks, current account and the macroeconomy in a developing country

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 710-726
Author(s):  
Moumita Basu ◽  
Ranjanendra Narayan Nag
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Effective Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
The Current Account

Purpose This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined. Findings The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment. Originality/value The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.

Hong Kong and Denmark will keep currency pegs

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Exchange Rate Arrangements ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Currency Pegs

Subject The longevity and outlook for currency pegs. Significance The abandonment of the Swiss franc's three-year-old peg to the euro on January 15 put into question the longevity of pegged exchange rate arrangements. It also highlights how unusual such arrangements are today. Impacts The SNB will still have to continue to intervene in foreign-exchange markets to stabilise the Swiss franc. The SNB move will not cause Danish authorities to stop pegging the Danish krone to the euro. The near- and medium-term longevity of the Hong Kong dollar peg to the US dollar will not be questioned.

Russia's budget reflects caution on future spending

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Education Spending ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Spending Cuts

Significance A three-year budget cycle is intended to create predictability after a year in which the initial budget had to be revised as the oil price outlook grew gloomier. Spending cuts are envisaged to continue beyond 2017 as revenue predictions are modest amid low rates of economic growth, and the objective is to cut the budget deficit progressively. Impacts The diversion of reserve money to sustain public spending will undermine economic modernisation programmes. Low levels of health and education spending will harm human capital in the medium-to-long term. The Central Bank is unlikely to relax monetary policies significantly prior to 2018, and then only if inflation recedes to the targeted 4%. Tight monetary policy will restrict credit growth and thus economic recovery.

Earthquake may add to fiscal woes in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
State Funding ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Spending Cuts

Significance Thousands protested in early April against government plans to increase tax, the latest sign of rising tensions following the collapse of oil prices, the widening of the budget deficit and cuts in public spending. The move to austerity, which began in early 2015, has improved public finances. However, spending cuts have created problems for sectors reliant on state funding and efforts to raise taxes to balance the books have been opposed. Impacts Austerity will drain aggregate demand and place downward pressure on growth. Right-wing opposition will use the fallout from the oil price collapse to make the case for a smaller state and less regulated economy. Tax increases will be unpopular with voters, but may help to secure external financing.

Monetary tightening carries high cost in Argentina

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Volatility ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Debt Default ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

Significance Despite its commitment to a floating exchange rate, the government has been forced to prioritise exchange rate stabilisation. After the change of Central Bank (BCRA) authorities in mid-June failed to stop the latest currency run, the government further tightened monetary policy. Aiming to alleviate fears of a new medium-term debt default, the government is emphasising its commitment to fiscal adjustment, even including the possibility of new taxes, which runs counter to efforts to reduce tax pressure. Impacts Interest rate rises and closer control of monetary aggregates may prompt a recession. Depreciation will help to reduce the current account deficit in 2018 but will worsen debt indicators. Growing political uncertainty and difficulty in cutting public spending will sustain financial volatility.

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