Trade deficit looms over Algerian dinar depreciation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Cost Cutting ◽  
Finance Law ◽  
The Government

Significance Plunging oil and gas revenue have created a dauntingly large budget deficit and the rapid erosion of foreign exchange reserves. To deal with the situation, the government on July 22 approved a package of measures in its mid-year interim budget, the Complementary Finance Law (LFC). They include changes to the tax system to incentivise productive activity and penalise importers, as well as a fiscal amnesty aimed at bringing the informal sector into the regular economy. Impacts The fall in fiscal and export revenues will heavily deplete the budgetary and foreign exchange reserves, albeit from relatively high levels. The government will have to consider more vigorous cost-cutting and revenue-raising measures in the 2016 budget. The resulting economic pressure will exacerbate the tense political situation regarding the ailing president's future and succession.

Libyan unity government could curb public spending

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Fiscal Health ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Annual Budget ◽  
Spending Cuts

Significance The two largest oil ports, Ras Lanuf and Es Sider -- with a combined capacity of 600,000 barrels per day (b/d) -- are still closed due to fighting between rival factions, even though the UN-sponsored dialogue for a unity government is progressing. Libya is heavily dependent on oil and gas exports; 95% of its annual budget is generated from hydrocarbons. The decline in world oil prices since mid-2014, and the likelihood that oil will remain below 70 dollars per barrel in 2015, mean that Libya will further drain its foreign exchange reserves -- or make large spending cuts. The former is the easier choice. Impacts Financing from foreign reserves has been a policy since June 2014, but it is unclear how much of it has been spent. The use of foreign exchange reserves will prevent a budget crisis in 2015. Over the medium term, fiscal health will deteriorate.

Sisi seeks Egyptian economic takeoff in his next term

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Borrowing

Significance Preliminary results suggest that President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has won re-election with 91% of the vote. Western media and diplomats estimate turnout hovered around 20%, though Egyptian site Youm7 reported yesterday that 23 million of 59 million eligible voters cast their ballot, bringing turnout to 39%. After the formality of his re-election for a second term is completed, Sisi is looking to his cabinet to set the conditions for a surge in economic growth over the next four years. Impacts Further cuts to subsidies are in the pipeline; inflation and interest rates remain high, although they have passed their peaks. Foreign exchange reserves are at record levels, but increased borrowing made a major contribution, and heavy debt repayments are now due. The government seeks more foreign investment in projects and equities to replace external borrowing as the main source of capital inflows.

Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

MÜASİR ŞƏRAİTDƏ AZƏRBAYCANIN VALYUTA SİYASƏTİNİN TƏKMİLLƏŞDİRİLMƏSİ VƏZİFƏLƏRİ VƏ İSTİQAMƏTLƏRİ

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (05) ◽  
pp. 122-125
Author(s):  
Kamil Sayavush Demirli ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Transit Service ◽  
Gas Balance

Key words: monetary policy, commodity trade foreign exchange reserves, balance of payments, oil and gas, balance, transportation, transit service, international, capital, perspective

Sri Lanka will try to manage debt without IMF help

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Special Drawing ◽  
External Stakeholders ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
The Government ◽  
Special Drawing Rights ◽  
India And China

Significance The government nevertheless remains under pressure from domestic critics and external stakeholders because of dwindling foreign exchange (forex) reserves and a growing debt crisis. Sri Lanka approached the IMF in early 2020 for macroeconomic support under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument, but negotiations were shelved. Impacts The government will face increasing domestic pushback over its efforts to curb capital outflows. Although India and China will remain Sri Lanka’s most important partners, ties with Bangladesh will grow markedly. Sri Lanka should be able to access an allocation of IMF special drawing rights later this month.

ՀՀ տնտեսության պարտքային անվտանգության խնդիրները Արցախյան պատերազմի համատեքստում

2021 ◽  
pp. 181-188
Author(s):  
Ani Grigoryan
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Military Expenditures ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government

The 2020 began with the Coronavirus crisis and ended with the Artsakh war, causing both financial and human losses. An extremely difficult economic and political situation was created for the Republic of Armenia. The volume of military expenditures, which is expenditure priority due to military operations, has increased by about 40 billion drams in the current year. The epidemic restrictions reduced tax revenues by about 113 billion drams. The purpose of this article is to reveal the challenges that Armenia has been facing, due to the epidemic and the Artsakh war, substantiating the approach, that the above-mentioned instabilities will inevitably lead to a violation of the logic of the planned economic growth. During the research, the indicators of the government debt-to-GDP ratio of different years were calculated by the method of quantitative analysis, which show the amount of the debt burden. As a result of the research we came to the conclusion that the economic problems will lead to an increase in the budget deficit. And the lack of the resources to finance the latter will make it inevitable for the Republic of Armenia to attract new external public debt, which will increase the already heavy external public debt burden of the RA. Considering the above-mentioned issues as a priority, this article aims to study the dynamics of the external debt obligations of the RA economy during the difficult economic and political period for the Republic of Armenia.

Policy shocks, current account and the macroeconomy in a developing country

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 710-726
Author(s):  
Moumita Basu ◽  
Ranjanendra Narayan Nag
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Effective Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
The Current Account

Purpose This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined. Findings The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment. Originality/value The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.

Battle to stop Ecuador re-election reform intensifies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Election Reform ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.

Indonesian energy reform eyes public-private balance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Resource Endowment ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
Private Investors ◽  
Energy Assets ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Subject Proposed reforms in the oil and gas sector. Significance In the face of strong resource nationalism, President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's government faces strong pressure to improve the balance between public control and private participation in the oil and gas sector. To that end, the government proposes to amend the 2001 oil and gas law. Its draft amendment proposes, most notably, that state enterprises should control all production operations, while private investors provide technology and capital. The government is also considering revisions to the upstream regime, which is currently based on production-sharing contracts (PSCs). These changes require parliamentary approval. Impacts Private firms, especially foreign ones, are likely to delay fresh investment in energy assets, given the oil and gas market glut. Indonesia's vast natural resource endowment will attract private interest, but regulatory uncertainty will be an abiding problem. Transparency in the extractive sector will continue to rise at the national level, but local level reforms will be slow.

Argentine elections will drive monetary expansion

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Nominal Anchor ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework

Subject The Central Bank's 2015 monetary programme. Significance The Central Bank's (BCRA) 2015 monetary programme indicates that the main features of the current monetary policy framework -- characterised by an expansionary bias, foreign exchange controls and close monitoring of the informal exchange market -- will continue this year. Impacts The government will prioritise exchange rate stability, at the expense of economic activity. The BCRA will continue using the official exchange rate as a nominal anchor. Foreign exchange controls may be extended to discourage devaluation expectations and to protect international reserves.

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