India's renewables target will not lower coal reliance

Subject Energy outlook. Significance During his first year in government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has enthusiastically advocated renewable energy, particularly solar. His administration has publicly backed renewables as a solution to reducing India's dependence on fossil fuel and to achieving universal electricity access by 2019. To this end, the April 2015-March 2016 budget announced in February set an ambitious and unprecedented target for renewable energy. Impacts India is predicted to overtake China as the main driver of world coal consumption by around 2025. Delhi may use its rhetorical push on renewables to negotiate for moderate pledges on cutting emissions at the Paris climate talks. Deep reliance on imported coal will expose Indian importers and consumers to price volatility and policy changes of exporting countries.

Subject Declining costs of renewable energy. Significance Recent auctions and 'levelised cost of energy' (LCOE) studies show that the costs of wind and solar photovoltaic power are now competitive with fossil-fuel power generation in an increasing number of scenarios. Impacts Competitive renewable energy costs will encourage governments to adopt renewables as first-choice technologies. While positive for emissions, higher renewables adoption will slow growth in international fossil fuel trade to the detriment of exporters. Variable renewable energy growth will increase demand for system-balancing technologies, such as interconnectors and electricity storage.


Subject Energy diversification. Significance Central America is exploring ways to diversify its power generation, pursuing more sustainable hydropower and geothermal energy and developing other renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, biofuels and agricultural waste. The region’s massive potential to develop renewable energy is increasingly being recognised internationally, but issues with capacity and investor confidence weigh on progress. Impacts Fossil fuel use will continue to grow alongside an increase in renewables. Cross-border trade in renewable energy is likely to develop over the coming years. Costa Rica's image as an ecotourism hub will drive domestic and international enthusiasm for renewables investment there.


Significance His remarks follow an Indonesian Coal Mining Association forecast in November that coal consumption in 2017 had increased 16% over 2016's levels. The rise in domestic coal consumption is emblematic of Indonesia’s energy demands, and the effects of uncertain overseas demand for Indonesian coal. Impacts The coal lobby will be a strong force in Indonesian politics for decades. Coal-centred energy plans could harm Indonesia’s population and environment. Indonesian renewable energies will be underdeveloped unless official policy changes. Government efforts to draw more income from the mining sector will intensify.


Significance This is the first time a sitting premier has faced criminal charges. The decision has been looming for several months and comes as the country risks heading towards a third election in the space of a year, absent a last-minute deal to form a coalition. Impacts Netanyahu’s removal would not lead to immediate policy changes, which are more dependent on the eventual composition of the next coalition. If Netanyahu survives, the next election will be defined by polarising claims of a conspiracy against him. Right-wing political leaders’ relationship with the judiciary and police will further sour.


Subject Renewable energy in China. Significance The government has announced a 2.5-trillion-renminbi (363-billion-dollar) investment programme in renewable energy as part of its 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20). This continues the twin strategies of boosting the share of non-fossil fuel in the energy mix and supporting the growth and internationalisation of China's renewable energy manufacturing industry. Impacts China’s renewable energy capacity will grow, with a switch of emphasis to solar photovoltaics and solar thermal. The country’s manufacturing industry for renewable energy equipment is likely to thrive. There will be further corporate consolidation in the sector. Chinese companies will increase their dominance of the international markets for renewable energy equipment and project development.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maman Ali M. Moustapha ◽  
Qian Yu ◽  
Benjamin Adjei Danqauh

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess how the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) renewable energy policy (EREP) affects energy intensity using the difference-in-difference (DID) and the propensity score matching methods (PSM). Based on the current debates on renewable energy policies (REP) and due to the fact that energy efficiency has been a challenge for ECOWAS member states. The authors set up a framework to assess the EREP effect on energy intensity. Design/methodology/approach Using the DID and PSM approaches the paper assesses the effect of EREP on energy intensity. The following three different paths are considered: Path 1 tests the EREP effect on electricity access. Path 2 tests the use of renewable energy sources as a factor to enhance the energy intensity. Path 3 tests whether or not use of renewable energy deployment has the potential to raise the total percentage of primary energy supply. The principle is to investigate if and to what extend the EREP increases the energy intensity. Findings The results indicate that EREP has a significantly positive effect on increasing the percentage of energy intensity in ECOWAS member states that has implemented the policy, resulting for a large percentage of the population to electricity access in treated groups. Empirical estimation results largely corroborate the three paths’ hypotheses. The result indicated that the EREP has increased the percentage of electricity access throughout the region. Originality/value The paper explores a more appropriate framework to examine the effect of EREP and enriches the literature on the impact of REP by combining a policy evaluation approach (PSM-DID) method. This paper is the first to the knowledge to estimate the EREP effect by using a non-parametric approach. The majority of previous studies have focused on using case studies, exploratory analysis approaches and econometric methods.


Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance The national unity government of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe completed its first year in July. After a phase of poor cohesion and unpopular decisions, the government is regaining public support. Sirisena, leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and Wickremesinghe, leader of the United National Party (UNP), have extended their alliance to 2020, boosting political stability. Yet significant economic and political challenges remain. Impacts Dependence on Chinese investment is unavoidable, but Colombo will seek new partners. Rajapaksa will remain the most important political challenge for the government. Ethnic reconciliation is a distant dream, but overt tensions are subsiding.


Subject Impact of COP21 on the energy and commodities sectors. Significance The signing of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) agreement in December indicated that there is political will for counteracting global warming. While the agreement itself is soft, it will catalyse competition among governments and spur private initiatives in renewable energy. Within a generation, technologies that provide the solutions could alter the commodities landscape significantly. Impacts Hydrocarbons will be the most visible victims of the transition. Fossil fuel utilities that survive will be the ones that have invested heavily in carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Renewable energy and power storage technologies will result in demand spikes for certain commodity inputs.


Subject Evaluation of the Modi government's performance half-way into its term. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014 on a wave of popular enthusiasm. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gained the first single-party parliamentary majority for 25 years as he promised to re-energise India's economic and social progress. Nearly half-way into his term, questions are being raised about his record thus far and the direction in which he is taking the country. Impacts Modi's election pledge on job creation will not be fulfilled. Water disputes between state authorities will intensify in coming years. Some renewable energy goals will be met but coal dependence will not change until at least 2040.


Subject Outlook for India-Africa relations. Significance Delhi is devoting increasing attention to its relations with Africa, especially as it vies with Beijing for greater influence across the continent. Earlier this year, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa took the salute at India’s Republic Day parade. Impacts If re-elected, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely undertake more trips to Africa in the first year of his second term. Delhi’s plans for military facilities in Mauritius and the Seychelles are likely to encounter further local resistance. India will aim to deepen ‘South-South’ connections in other parts of the world.


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