Mexican fiscal consolidation steady despite oil price

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for fiscal consolidation. Significance The significant drop in oil prices should not derail the fiscal consolidation trajectory mapped by President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration, which envisages that the debt/GDP ratio should stabilise by 2017. The fiscal hole opened by reduced oil prices has been compensated with greater taxation income and one-off revenues. Impacts Defying expectations, the oil price plunge did not push the government into an overtly contractionary fiscal correction. An arguably much-needed simplification of the cumbersome taxation regime will not take place due to the government's pledge not to alter it. Loose monetary policy from the autonomous central bank has worked in tandem with the government's fiscal stance.

Azerbaijan faces hard search for new growth drivers

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Currency Devaluation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The government wants to develop non-hydrocarbon sectors to offset the growth and fiscal problems stemming from lower global oil prices. The economy contracted in 2016 for a second consecutive year. Fiscal consolidation and currency devaluation have added to contractionary effects. Impacts Efforts to clean up the banking sector will absorb fiscal resources. Confidence in the national currency remains fragile. High levels of dollarisation complicate the execution of monetary policy.

Russia spillover, low oil price will challenge Astana

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Ukrainian Crisis ◽  
Domestic Products ◽  
Global Growth

Significance The slowing down of Kazakhstan's economy continues against a background of slow global growth, the turbulent economic situation in Russia and low oil prices. Lower-than-projected oil prices will reduce budget revenues and forecasts; on January 16, Astana said it was revising its budgets for 2015-17 to mirror an average oil price of 50 dollars/barrel, as current budgets were based on 80 dollars/barrel. The blow will be softened by substantial reserves, which are expected to be used to stimulate the economy. Dwindling demand for commodities will negatively affect the profitability of Kazakhstan's major producers. The cumulative spillover from the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is substantial, although manageable at present. Impacts Further devaluation of the tenge would undermine public confidence in Kazakhstan's national currency. Increased dollarisation of Kazakhstan's economy will make regulation difficult by monetary policy. Ruble depreciation will put pressure on the tenge and promote replacement of domestic products with Russian imports.

Pressure will mount on Mexico's external sector

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Sector

Subject Mexico's external accounts. Significance The plunge in global oil prices represents a significant blow to the Mexican economy, particularly in terms of fiscal revenue. However, a negative impact is also showing in Mexico's external accounts. Moreover, manufacturing exports are contracting, partly due to problems in the automotive sector. Mexico's floating exchange rate is acting as an effective cushion, and its level of international reserves remains comfortable. Nonetheless, the growing external deficits may spark greater uncertainty about the economy's prospects. Impacts If market confidence deteriorates further, the government may activate the 65-billion-dollar Flexible Credit Line that it has with the IMF. The peso should rebound from the all-time nominal lows it has reached, but only after US growth firms up and the oil price stabilises. Despite the increasing external deficits, the government will not introduce protectionist measures and the opposition will not demand them.

Oil prices will increase Ecuador's fiscal pressures

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Full Control ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Of Falling

Significance The collapse of world oil prices has brought fiscal policy sharply into focus in Ecuador. At a time when the budget deficit is widening and the opposition is strengthening, the government faces the prospect of receiving significantly less income from the oil sector than anticipated. The fallout from the plunge of oil prices coincides with the beginning of the constitutional debate that could allow the re-election of President Rafael Correa in 2017. Impacts The government will intensify efforts to raise oil output in a bid to ease the impact of falling oil prices. Conflicts between central and local government will probably increase as public resources become scarcer. If oil prices remain low, the appeal of exiting dollarisation and establishing full control over monetary policy will rise.

Market nerves roil Turkey and Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Guidance

Significance Markets have taken badly the Fed's more hawkish policy guidance for 2017, not expecting such a shift in monetary policy so soon. The shift in US monetary policy comes just as the ECB is preparing the ground for the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. While Turkish assets are the most vulnerable partly because of the severe escalation in political risk, the Polish zloty is also at risk thanks mainly to its status as one of the most liquid EM currencies. Impacts Investors see global financial markets at an inflection point as monetary policy gives way to fiscal policy as the main source of stimulus. This monetary-to-fiscal shift will fuel uncertainty about the direction of asset prices. Rising oil prices will allay concerns about deflation in the euro-area. As major Emerging Europe currencies suffer, the ruble is rising against the dollar amid oil price rises and Trump’s Russia-friendly remarks.

Dialogue failure risks new conflicts in Venezuela

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Structural Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dialogue Process ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy

Significance Venezuela has welcomed OPEC's agreement to the first oil production cut since 2008 but this fillip was offset by a 67% fall in the black market value of the bolivar in November -- the steepest monthly fall to date. Amid triple-digit figure inflation, the Central Bank announced that new denomination bank notes will be released on December 15. Impacts The predictable collapse of the Vatican-endorsed dialogue process portends a renewed and possibly violent cycle of protest and conflict. Absent structural reform and dramatic change in fiscal and monetary policy, a lift in oil prices will not alleviate economic turbulence. Official optimism over a possible return to modest growth next year appears misplaced.

Belarus faces oil price and COVID-19 shocks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Petroleum Product ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
The Government

Significance Reduced global demand due to COVID-19 and the collapse of OPEC+ output caps have driven prices under 40 dollars per barrel. That does not benefit Belarus, as its petroleum product exports have also fallen in value. After months of arguments about oil prices, President Alexander Lukashenka says he has secured a pledge of financial relief from Russia, but Moscow has yet to confirm. Impacts Lukashenka's re-election would normally be routine, but this year it takes place in unfavourable external circumstances. If protests start to grow, the government can always impose restrictions attributed to COVID-19. US-EU attempts at closer engagement will be thwarted by Belarus's ultimate reliance on Russia. Belarus will replace Russian with Chinese loans but neither is a substitute for structural reforms.

Risks are high despite Turkey’s policy 'normalisation'

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Government

Significance With the lira at a record low, the Central Bank continued to tighten monetary policy this week, funding the market through competitive one-month repo tenders at rates of around 12.5%. In recent weeks, the government and Central Bank have taken a series of steps to modify the expansionary and in some cases unorthodox policies adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Foreign portfolio investors could shun the Turkish market for some more months, and the risk premium will remain high. Although this year’s annual contraction in GDP, at 3-4%, may be less severe than expected, the recovery may decelerate or be interrupted. The lira may fall further with concerns about foreign debt, forex reserves, budgets, inflation and financial stability persisting into 2021. Given the weak lira, the jobs crisis and high inflation, the government will struggle to persuade the public it has managed the crisis well.

scholarly journals Sharīʿah-compliant central banking practices: lessons from Muslim countries’ experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-26
Author(s):  
Zaheer Anwer ◽  
Shabeer Khan ◽  
Muhammad Abu Bakar
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Muslim Countries ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this study is to document how a central bank can perform its primary and secondary functions in a Sharīʿah-compliant manner. It also seeks to investigate the outcomes of the experiments of Muslim-majority countries in this regard. Design/methodology/approach As a first step, a detailed review of existing literature is conducted, which discusses the views of scholars and practitioners on the central banking mechanism in a fully Sharīʿah-compliant financial system. Moving further, the case studies of Iran, Sudan and Pakistan are presented to highlight experiences of regulators from three Muslim-majority countries, which aimed to achieve full compliance with Sharīʿah (Islamic law) principles related to Islamic finance. To evaluate their models, an assessment of their practices is performed in the light of Sharīʿah rules and principles based on existing literature. Finally, the issues involved in establishing a Sharīʿah-compliant central bank (SCCB) are discussed and improvements are suggested. Findings It is found that Iran played an effective role in pursuing broader objectives of monetary policy by setting priorities for credit allocation and assisting the government in reducing expenses; however, with respect to instruments, its experience is limited to the rebranding of conventional products. Sudan has not only used monetary policy to effectively curb inflation but also it has introduced various indirect instruments to perform monetary operations. Pakistan succeeded in formulating a theoretical roadmap to establish a SCCB but the desired objectives could not be achieved because of multiple factors. Practical implications This study has important policy implications for regulators and policymakers from Muslim countries, who can use the findings in shaping effective Sharīʿah-compliant central banking practices in their respective countries. Originality/value This study discusses the salient features of an important Islamic financial institution, the central bank and evaluates the experiments of three Muslim-majority countries in implementing Sharīʿah-compliant central banking practices. To the best of the knowledge, this evaluation has not been performed in the existing literature and the present study fills in this gap.

Mopani deal will exacerbate Zambia's debt crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Strategic Partner ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Resource Nationalism ◽  
The Government

Significance This boosts President Edgar Lungu's re-election prospects in August, but ZCCM-IH will struggle to find a 'strategic partner' to replace Glencore. Mounting public debt will undermine efforts to convince the IMF that the government has a path to debt sustainability, depriving Zambia of access to concessional lending and stalling negotiations with bondholders. Impacts Resource nationalism will play well on the Copperbelt, improving the ruling party’s prospects in a region key to securing a poll victory. With little chance of an IMF deal, Lungu will likely make further pre-poll gestures, such as salary increases for public-sector workers. Monetary policy is also likely to suffer, with the central bank under pressure to fund the government's reckless borrowing.

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