Ethiopia’s civil war may unravel regional geopolitics

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Government

Significance It has also seriously damaged Ethiopia’s international and regional political standing, weakening Addis Ababa’s position in the trilateral talks with Egypt and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and creating new flashpoints along the Ethiopia-Sudan border, while triggering shifts in alliances that have effectively tilted the regional balance of power against Ethiopia. Impacts The government may consider dialogue with domestic political forces (other than the TPLF) to ease international and domestic pressure. Continued geopolitical jockeying between Sudan and Egypt, and Ethiopia and Eritrea, could ease regional pressure on South Sudan. Concern over the fallout from the Tigray conflict may also complicate Ethiopian relations with Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda.

Food insecurity will persist in South Sudan

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Produce ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Government

Significance Areas of South Sudan were once predicted to become the ‘food basket’ of East Africa, making the country a net exporter of agricultural produce. However, even before independence in 2011, the government did little to increase agricultural output. Meanwhile, severe under-development, armed conflict and resulting displacement of civilians have together meant that food insecurity has been a persistent feature of life for many. Localised intensifications in fighting, disruptions to market routes and obstructions by parties to conflict have recently caused increases in food insecurity, tipping some of the population into famine conditions. Impacts Conflict has resulted in displacements, limiting subsistence agricultural activity. Poor economic management, leading to high and rising inflation, has rendered the food in the markets unaffordable to most of the population. Political forces have actively prevented food aid from reaching those in need, exacerbating the famine.

Flaws may undermine fragile South Sudan peace process

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
The Government

Significance The warring parties in September signed the latest in a string of peace deals to end five years of civil war. However, one month in, fighting continues and many are gloomy about the prospect of the deal holding. Impacts Implementation will be fraught with challenges and flashpoints, not least cantonment of armed forces and reintegration of rebel soldiers. Anger will grow among those who see the deal as yet another elite pact that fails to address the ‘root causes’ of conflict. Fragmented opposition forces will pose less of a threat to the government but leave large areas under the shifting control of local actors.

South Sudan

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Giffen
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
United Nations ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
Responsibility To Protect ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
United Nations Peacekeeping ◽  
The Government ◽  
Do So

Two years and five months following the country’s independence from Sudan, a political crisis in South Sudan quickly devolved into a civil war marked by violence that could amount to atrocities. At the time, a United Nations peacekeeping operation, UNMISS, was the principal multinational intervention in South Sudan. UNMISS was explicitly mandated to assist the government of South Sudan to fulfil its responsibility to protect and was also authorized to protect civilians when the government was unable or unwilling to do so. Despite this role, UNMISS’s Special Representative of the Secretary-General said that no one could have predicted the scale or speed at which the violence unfolded. This chapter explores whether the atrocities could have been predicted by UNMISS, why UNMISS was unprepared, and what other peacekeeping operations can learn from UNMISS’s experience.

Haftar will obstruct political solution in Libya

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Obstacle ◽  
East And West ◽  
The Government

Significance The fate of the deeply divisive General Khalifa Haftar is a key -- if not main -- obstacle to the HoR approving the GNA, a step which is essential to efforts to finding a sustainable solution to Libya's almost two-year-old civil war. Impacts Several army commanders in east and west Libya distrust Haftar and will not take orders from him. If he keeps his position, this will hinder efforts to unify Libya's divided armed factions against Islamic State. If he stays in Libya, Haftar would likely continue to challenge the government, even if the GNA is approved.

South Sudan peace talks may fail to bridge reality gap

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Local Level ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Framework Agreement ◽  
Content Type

Significance A ‘framework agreement’ reached between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar in Khartoum on June 27 had been billed as a breakthrough in efforts to end South Sudan’s four-and-a-half-year civil war, but progress since then has been mired by infighting, especially around power-sharing formulas. Impacts Sudan and Uganda’s involvement as ‘guarantors’ could constrain would-be spoilers but will be deeply divisive. The several dozen other armed factions will fight to secure their place at the table. Already-dire humanitarian conditions will worsen without local-level security improvements.

South Sudan's multiple conflicts will not subside

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sudanese Refugees

Significance South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access. Impacts Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day. Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors. Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.

Kiir-Machar talks will not solve South Sudan conflict

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance International stakeholders hope the meeting can restore momentum to stalled regional peace efforts. However, the bilateral format represents a reversion to the old mediation formula which failed to produce a sustainable deal. Impacts The conflict’s humanitarian toll will continue to rise, with famine risks a recurring concern. Rebel fragmentation and supply constraints mean the government will retain the military advantage if conflict continues. Focus on power-sharing ratios will distract attention from more fundamental issues of governance and reform.

Khartoum will resist committing to power sharing

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
The West ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
South Kordofan

Significance Since South Sudan seceded in 2011, Khartoum has confronted conflict on three fronts. Armed conflict escalated in Blue Nile and South Kordofan in mid-2011, while clashes between pro- and anti-government forces and outbreaks of inter-communal fighting have plagued Darfur and West Kordofan. Impacts Ongoing conflict will dash hopes of Sudan's removal from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Reports about fighting and atrocities in areas to which the government restricts access will further strain relations with the West. Khartoum will continue to pressure Juba against providing support to any rebel groups in Sudan. The government will step up its call that AU-UN peacekeepers withdraw from Darfur.

Reforms will strengthen policy implementation in China

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Conflicts Of Interest ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Subject Reforms to the relationship betwen central and local government in China. Significance The government last month issued two blueprints for a sweeping reorganisation of the country's bureaucracy (here and here, links in Chinese). They include policies that significantly alter the balance of power between central and local government institutions. These aim to overcome foot-dragging and poor policy implementation at local levels by improving incentives and supervision, and eliminating overlapping responsibilities and conflicts of interest. Impacts With the backing of an increasingly powerful Xi, much of the agenda is likely to be implemented. In key policy areas such as the environment, local bureaus should have more reliable access to funding. New taxes and constraints on borrowing should strengthen local government finances and help reduce their debt burden. Local governments may have less leeway to offer business incentives such as tax breaks and other regulatory incentives.

New fighting impacts South Sudan peace on two levels

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Liberation Army ◽  
People’S Liberation Army ◽  
Regional Leaders

Significance NAS alleges that the government’s South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the peace deal’s other main signatory, Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in Opposition (SPLA-IO), are taking part in the ongoing fighting. Reports of an imminent offensive had been circulating for weeks; allegations are now emerging of abuses against civilians. Impacts Criticism from regional leaders, who have already threatened to designate non-signatories as ‘spoilers’, may be muted. The signatories will hope that the offensive will prompt defections, boosting their share of the balance of power. Plans to establish cantonment sites in the areas affected by fighting, for troops party to the deal, could prove a flashpoint.

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