Prospects for Venezuela in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for Venezuela in 2016. Significance The conduct and results of the December 6 National Assembly elections will shape political and economic prospects in 2016. The contest will not presage stability, reform or consensus; instead, gridlock and a deepening of polarisation is expected. Amid an erosion of President Nicolas Maduro's already waning credibility, mobilisation for a recall referendum will be the focus of opposition activity. The grave economic situation will remain a background consideration for both the government and its opponents.

Dialogue advances but threats mount in Venezuela

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Election Process ◽  
The Government

Significance Recent weeks have seen some progress toward agreement on opposition participation in National Assembly elections scheduled for year-end -- but this would include only a section of the opposition and not Guaido. Optimism about some form of consensual election process has been replaced by fears that Venezuela is on the brink of catastrophic implosion triggered by oil price collapse, coronavirus and emerging paramilitarism. Impacts The government faces being overwhelmed by humanitarian and economic crises. Venezuela is catastrophically ill-positioned to deal with any coronavirus spread. Combined with US oil sanctions, the drastic fall in international oil prices will compound the already dire economic situation.

Venezuela's Maduro gains breathing space, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Bolivarian Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Broad Base ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government

Significance The party base of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began the process of nominations for primaries that will be convened in June to select candidates for the 2015 National Assembly elections. The government enters the selection process on the back of a rise in popular support catalysed by perceived US aggression and Maduro's strong anti-imperialist narrative. Impacts The broad base of the PSUV nominations process contrasts with MUD plans, fuelling doubts over MUD divisions. Chavista 'battle units' will nominate four candidates, a strategy that is boosting waning enthusiasm for the Bolivarian Revolution. The primaries process strengthens the government's commitment to the parliamentary elections, the date of which has yet to be set.

Mauritanian president’s ambitions may shape elections

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Services ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Term Limit ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Street Protest ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year

Subject Prospects for a presidential third term and the upcoming local and legislative elections. Significance Legislative and municipal elections due towards the end of this year will be a significant political test for both the government and President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz, just one year before the crucial 2019 presidential contest. Despite his denials of any ambition to stand for a third term, there is a widespread expectation that Abdelaziz will seek to remain in office. However, that would mean scrapping the current two-term limit -- a constitutional change that would require a two-thirds majority in the national assembly. Change could provoke protests at home and criticism from Western allies. Impacts The main lines of policy on the economy, the extractives sector and public services would be unlikely to change under a new president. The IMF’s December 2017 decision to approve a new three-year programme provides a stable framework for investors. The regime will crack down hard on any large public street protest that appears likely to gather momentum.

Regional elections will reopen tensions in Venezuela

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
International Response ◽  
The Government ◽  
Regional Elections

Significance The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) thus captured 18 of Venezuela’s 23 state governorships in regional elections held October 15 with an increase in its share of the vote relative to the 2012 governor elections and the 2015 National Assembly elections. The opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD) won five states -- up from three in 2012. Despite questions over the transparency of the electoral process, the opposition ran a poor campaign. Impacts The results are a serious setback for the fractious MUD, whose future as a unified opposition alliance looks uncertain. The PSUV will now feel confident in moving ahead with municipal and presidential elections. Absent concrete evidence of fraud, a hostile international response, including possible EU sanctions, will further entrench the government.

Primary points to political instability in Argentina

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Significance After winning over 48.2% of the national vote in the 2019 general elections, the FdT’s vote share dropped to only 31.8%. Recriminations are rife within the government, as well as disputes over how to improve the FdT’s performance in the November midterms. Impacts Despite voter doubts about both large coalitions, leftist and rightist options are gaining limited traction. The business environment will remain unfavourable amid instability and the risk of another COVID-19 wave. Radical factions within the government will lack the resources to sustain clientelistic policies in an adverse economic situation.

Kuwait faces a deferred liquidity crunch

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Soft Power ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Scale Down ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Significance The impact of the pandemic and especially lower oil prices hit the government budget hard, since more than nine-tenths of revenue comes from oil sales. However, the country also faces longer-term structural challenges that undermine project implementation. Impacts The emir will seek to avoid fresh elections, which could bring an even more obstructionist National Assembly. Tensions with parliament will prevent consideration of measures such as an excise tax on harmful products or a Gulf-agreed value-added tax. The government will resist legislative pressure to scale down generous foreign aid, seen as an important source of global soft power. The authorities could approach various government entities for dividend transfers to push back the risk of a liquidity crunch.

New Algerian family law reveals resurgent Islamists

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Identity ◽  
Violence Against Women ◽  
Cultural Policy ◽  
Political System ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Social Instability ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government

Subject The women's rights' debate. Significance The National Assembly on March 5 voted a new law setting out harsher sentencing for perpetrators of violence against women. The law does not introduce any major legal innovations, but appears to be a concession to the long-neglected progressives. The bill provoked virulent opposition among Islamist deputies, who declared it contrary to Muslim law and a threat to family stability. The debate around the bill has revealed a resurgence in public acceptance of Islamist political language. In an authoritarian political system that is neither autocratic nor democratic, social and cultural policy provides the main outlet for political debate. Impacts The new law is unlikely significantly to improve the protection of women from violence. Other laws touching on cultural identity will follow, eg new legislation on the status of the Amazigh (Berbers). Such debates are likely to increase as the government seeks to distract from concerns over low oil prices and constitutional reform. A mismanaged cultural identity debate, coupled with limits on the regime's ability to buy social peace, could lead to social instability.

Nigerian economic policy likely to stutter

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Nigeria's economic outlook. Significance The economy contracted by 2.24% year-on-year in the third quarter, sharper than the 2.10% registered in second quarter, led by the oil sector’s continuing decline. The non-oil sector experienced a slight rebound, expanding for the first time this year. However, results here may prove fleeting as the policy environment becomes inimical to growth into 2017. Implementation of next year’s budget is already at risk from the ongoing stand-off between lawmakers and the presidency, while proposed new foreign exchange (forex) controls could further delay the return of crucial investments. Impacts The medium-term expenditure framework is unlikely to ease investor concerns over the government’s economic policy formulation capacity. Potential lenders may demand external policy assistance -- possibly from the IMF -- before considering extending credit to the government. Delays in the national assembly approving the 2017 budget could further undermine investor confidence and hamper growth potential.

Peaceful Venezuela protest takes momentum from Maduro

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Situation ◽  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up

Significance The opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD) convened the national protest to pressure the National Electoral Council (CNE) to bring forward the next phase of the recall referendum process against President Nicolas Maduro from October 24 as currently scheduled. Recourse to street mobilisation comes amid a further deterioration of the economic situation and eroding popular support for the government. Impacts The government's crackdown against opposition figures in the run-up to the demonstration will further strain diplomatic relations. If further opposition protests remain peaceful, they will intensify pressure on Maduro. A new round of demonstrations will refocus international media and political attention on the country.

Politics deepen economic crisis in Venezuela

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Political Theatre ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Economic Collapse ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Company

Subject The looming economic debacle. Significance The government's proposed assumption of emergency economic powers -- presented to the National Assembly on January 15 -- was rejected a week later by the new opposition-dominated Assembly by 107 votes to 53. Expectations of constitutional conflict and gridlock persist despite the severity of the economic crisis. State oil company PDVSA and the government are expected to make 6.4 billion dollars in debt payments due in February, but Venezuela has had its UN voting rights suspended for falling behind on payments, just weeks before it is due to assume the presidency of the Security Council. Impacts The executive's proposed economic policy authority contains measures that will compound rather than address policy mismanagement. Opposition initiatives formulated in the Assembly to reverse economic collapse will be struck down by the executive and judiciary. Political theatre and paralysis will exacerbate public frustration with the lack of response to deteriorating economic circumstances.

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