Regional elections will reopen tensions in Venezuela

Significance The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) thus captured 18 of Venezuela’s 23 state governorships in regional elections held October 15 with an increase in its share of the vote relative to the 2012 governor elections and the 2015 National Assembly elections. The opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD) won five states -- up from three in 2012. Despite questions over the transparency of the electoral process, the opposition ran a poor campaign. Impacts The results are a serious setback for the fractious MUD, whose future as a unified opposition alliance looks uncertain. The PSUV will now feel confident in moving ahead with municipal and presidential elections. Absent concrete evidence of fraud, a hostile international response, including possible EU sanctions, will further entrench the government.

Significance The party base of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began the process of nominations for primaries that will be convened in June to select candidates for the 2015 National Assembly elections. The government enters the selection process on the back of a rise in popular support catalysed by perceived US aggression and Maduro's strong anti-imperialist narrative. Impacts The broad base of the PSUV nominations process contrasts with MUD plans, fuelling doubts over MUD divisions. Chavista 'battle units' will nominate four candidates, a strategy that is boosting waning enthusiasm for the Bolivarian Revolution. The primaries process strengthens the government's commitment to the parliamentary elections, the date of which has yet to be set.


Significance Tunisia will hold legislative and presidential elections on October 6 and November 10, respectively. On June 18, parliament passed an amendment to electoral law barring individuals who use their media or other organisations for campaigning from running for office. Karoui was the frontrunner to win the presidency in a June 12 opinion poll published by Sigma Conseil, but will be prevented from running if the law enters force. He owns Nessma TV, which has been critical of the government, as well as a charitable organisation. This makes the amendment look as though it is targeting individuals who could threaten the major parties’ control of government. Impacts Tunisia may have set a precedent for preventing media personalities or wealthy populists from using their influence to become politicians. The ruling coalition may lose support if it is seen to be manipulating the electoral process to ensure victory. This case highlights the urgency of establishing a constitutional court to protect Tunisia’s democratic transition and consolidation.


Subject Prospects for Venezuela in 2016. Significance The conduct and results of the December 6 National Assembly elections will shape political and economic prospects in 2016. The contest will not presage stability, reform or consensus; instead, gridlock and a deepening of polarisation is expected. Amid an erosion of President Nicolas Maduro's already waning credibility, mobilisation for a recall referendum will be the focus of opposition activity. The grave economic situation will remain a background consideration for both the government and its opponents.


Significance On January 23, Venezuela’s National Constituent Assembly (ANC) called for presidential elections to be brought forward to before April 30. The move has exacerbated an already fraught political situation and undermined dialogue between the government and opposition parties. Impacts US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will visit Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru and Jamaica from February 1; Venezuela is a key issue. Oil sanctions would have a catastrophic effect on ordinary Venezuelans; Latin American countries are unlikely to come on board. US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech today will be scrutinised for what he says (or does not say) about Venezuela.


Subject Outlook for presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau. Significance Controversial outgoing President Jose Mario Vaz is among twelve candidates vying for the presidency on November 24. While the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)-backed elections are set to go ahead as planned, fears linger that they will not end recurring political turmoil. Impacts If Pereira wins, he will likely try drafting a new constitution to give greater clarity to the current ambiguous semi-presidential system. Ongoing political instability will exacerbate border insecurity and long-standing narco-trafficking. A more active, internationally backed civil society will ensure added scrutiny of political parties and the government over the long term.


Significance Some initiatives have been introduced to help counter the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, but the government’s actions appear to be driven less by the need to address the health crisis than by a desire to shore up political support ahead of elections next year. Impacts Opposition parties are beginning to forge electoral alliances in the hope of benefitting from popular frustration with the government. Trade and investment into Nicaragua will remain minimal, with external firms wary about the potential prevalence of COVID-19. The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will affect the potential for US aid and investment.


Subject Wildfires in Bolivia. Significance Over the past month and a half, Bolivia has suffered huge environmental damage from fires that have been raging out of control in the eastern lowlands. As October’s presidential elections approach, the issue has become increasingly politicised. Opposition parties criticise the government’s failure to act more decisively. The environmental costs of the fires will be long-lasting, although the human cost so far has been slight. The government has belatedly accepted international assistance. Impacts Morales’s international reputation as an advocate of environmentalism may suffer further during campaigning. International pressure on Bolivia to reduce fire risks will grow, but some of the promised aid may not be forthcoming. The lack of state capacity to regulate economic activity in remote areas will hinder efforts to improve environmental protection methods.


Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.


2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 154
Author(s):  
T Mairizal Mairizal

Discourse on the concept of government is always being a lactual issue in Indonesia, especially in the lead up to regional elections or presidential elections. But essentially legislative elections cannot be ignored, each contestant in the general election competes to attract the votes of the people without regard to their spiritual competence. In this case, Alquran has formulated the basic concept of the government system. And this article tries to describe these basic concepts by using thematic and semantic approaches. By tracing various relevant terms, at least the Alquran uses awliya', khalifah, and ulil amri terms. These terms show leadership includes the executive and legislature. To be a leader in a government, at least professional competence and physical abilities are needed. The stability of a government depends absolutely on the ability of the leader to carry out his obligations. Although religious status is still disputed, but as long as it is not related to the divine aspect, the people must obey the leader even though many things are not liked by him


Significance On the basis of exit polls and preliminary rapid counts, the MAS has clearly suffered an electoral reverse. However, in line with previous sub-national elections, this reflects the problem the party has in selecting sufficient candidates at that level who command widespread support. For the opposition, the election represented something of a recovery from its poor showing in last October's presidential and legislative elections. Impacts Demographic trends will further underline the political and economic strength of Santa Cruz vis-a-vis La Paz. The downturn in natural gas prices will mean that the government will have less money to redistribute to sub-national tiers of government. Costas has reaffirmed his position as Morales's chief political foe, but his appeal beyond Santa Cruz is limited.


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