New Algerian family law reveals resurgent Islamists

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Identity ◽  
Violence Against Women ◽  
Cultural Policy ◽  
Political System ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Social Instability ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government

Subject The women's rights' debate. Significance The National Assembly on March 5 voted a new law setting out harsher sentencing for perpetrators of violence against women. The law does not introduce any major legal innovations, but appears to be a concession to the long-neglected progressives. The bill provoked virulent opposition among Islamist deputies, who declared it contrary to Muslim law and a threat to family stability. The debate around the bill has revealed a resurgence in public acceptance of Islamist political language. In an authoritarian political system that is neither autocratic nor democratic, social and cultural policy provides the main outlet for political debate. Impacts The new law is unlikely significantly to improve the protection of women from violence. Other laws touching on cultural identity will follow, eg new legislation on the status of the Amazigh (Berbers). Such debates are likely to increase as the government seeks to distract from concerns over low oil prices and constitutional reform. A mismanaged cultural identity debate, coupled with limits on the regime's ability to buy social peace, could lead to social instability.

Hong Kong’s institutional incongruities and its tourism policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 312-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiew Ping Yew
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Political System ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Interests ◽  
Tourism Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Policy And Planning

Purpose – With a focus on Hong Kong tourism policy, the purpose of this paper is to explain the Hong Kong government’s conundrum in addressing society’s concerns and controversies over the massive influx of mainland tourists in recent years. Design/methodology/approach – This paper adopts the approach of historical institutionalism, in which the notion of structural-power takes centre stage. It outlines some notable trends in Hong Kong’s tourist arrivals and highlights some of the controversies that have arisen before delving into how existing institutional arrangements and key actors have shaped Hong Kong’s tourism policy amid the city’s shifting social, political and economic contexts. Findings – The prevalence of business interests and the ideology of economism largely explain the Hong Kong government’s stasis in tackling the problems stemming from the large inflow of mainland visitors. Institutional arrangements in the post-handover period have further empowered the business class, giving it an edge over the unelected executive that lacks a popular mandate. Therefore, even if the central government has signaled its willingness to adjust the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) policy, the Hong Kong government is unlikely to propose significant cuts to the inflow of IVS arrivals. Without further political reforms to boost the executive’s legitimacy and accountability to the Hong Kong people, it is doubtful that the government may emerge from its predicament in the near future. Originality/value – Through the lens of tourism policy and planning pertaining to inbound mainland visitors, this paper aims to assess the current state of governance in Hong Kong. It not only offers a timely look into Hong Kong’s political system 17 years after handover but also explores the extent to which apparent dysfunctions in the city’s governance today are a consequence of institutional incongruities in its political system.

Immigration and Islam fears will fuel Germany's PEGIDA

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Identity ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Drug Dealer ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Migration ◽  
German Cities

Significance PEGIDA, which was founded in October 2014 in Dresden by Lutz Bachmann, a convicted drug dealer and burglar, has established a pattern of weekly rallies attracting thousands of demonstrators across Germany, although its support is strongest in Dresden, the capital of Saxony. The January 5 rally mobilised a record 18,000 protesters, dwarfing the counter-demonstration of a few thousand people. Notwithstanding the strong resistance to PEGIDA in other German cities -- an estimated 30,000 counter-demonstrators marched on January 5 in Dresden, Stuttgart, Hamburg, Muenster, Berlin and Cologne -- the strength and persistence of the movement have sparked a debate in Germany and beyond about cultural identity and migration in an increasingly fractured and troubled region. Impacts The government may face challenges to reduce the number of asylum seekers, and could turn to other EU member states to ease the pressure. Concerns about immigration and cultural assimilation are decoupled from Germany's economic performance, which remains strong. Although manifested very differently, Germany, France and the United Kingdom are all showing signs of strain over immigration and Islam.

Venezuela's Maduro gains breathing space, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Bolivarian Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Broad Base ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government

Significance The party base of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began the process of nominations for primaries that will be convened in June to select candidates for the 2015 National Assembly elections. The government enters the selection process on the back of a rise in popular support catalysed by perceived US aggression and Maduro's strong anti-imperialist narrative. Impacts The broad base of the PSUV nominations process contrasts with MUD plans, fuelling doubts over MUD divisions. Chavista 'battle units' will nominate four candidates, a strategy that is boosting waning enthusiasm for the Bolivarian Revolution. The primaries process strengthens the government's commitment to the parliamentary elections, the date of which has yet to be set.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Italy's Renzi will face critical tests before year-end

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy considerable fiscal flexibility; the government promises to start reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio this year. However, the slowdown could delay achieving this goal. Under this scenario, the government has to campaign for the referendum on its Senate reform. A 'yes' vote is key not only for reforming the political system, but the government's survival. Impacts A 'no' outcome would pull Italy into deep uncertainty concerning its political leadership. It would also end Renzi's premiership; a new majority could follow up to the 2018 general election. However, since Renzi is the PD leader, he is unlikely to support a new government; early elections are likely. In case of a 'yes' outcome, Renzi's premiership will be reinforced, marking a turning point to his declining popularity.

Prospects for Venezuela in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for Venezuela in 2016. Significance The conduct and results of the December 6 National Assembly elections will shape political and economic prospects in 2016. The contest will not presage stability, reform or consensus; instead, gridlock and a deepening of polarisation is expected. Amid an erosion of President Nicolas Maduro's already waning credibility, mobilisation for a recall referendum will be the focus of opposition activity. The grave economic situation will remain a background consideration for both the government and its opponents.

Somalia's political transition risks destabilisation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Capital City ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Remote Areas ◽  
The Status ◽  
Donor States ◽  
Transitional Phase

Subject Outlook for upcoming elections. Significance The constitutional mandates of the parliament and presidency expire in August and September, respectively. Lawmakers are working to create a new political system and hold elections in order to move forward the transitional phase. However, with less than two months until the vote, critical details remain unresolved, including procedural and oversight aspects of the elections and the status of the capital city, Mogadishu. Impacts Donor states will pressure Somali authorities to complete elections without delay. Al-Shabaab will exploit communal grievances arising from the electoral crisis and try to grow its support base. International forces will continue their mission into 2017 even if some troop-contributing countries redeploy forces. Some African Union forces unable to pursue al-Shabaab in remote areas will likely focus more on force protection.

The United Arab Emirates will monitor internet closely

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Brands ◽  
Low Profile ◽  
The Status ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
The Government ◽  
In Transit

Subject Importance of social media in the United Arab Emirates. Significance The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is among the most connected countries in the Middle East, with one of the highest rates of social media penetration. Compared with Western countries, UAE consumers are more likely to engage with brands and to be less worried about issues of privacy and tracking. The government engages in extensive monitoring, surveillance and censorship of social media and apps. Impacts Both global brands and local businesses have additional scope to develop social media strategies to capitalise on rising usage. Content with the status quo and tight monitoring will prevent activists from leveraging social media platforms to bring about change. Extraterritorial aspects of the cybercrime law could be applied to non-residents and travellers in transit. Non-renewal of visas could become a more common, low-profile way to exclude expatriates who transgress on social media.

Tunisia’s jihadi fighters may test ties with Europe

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Broad Definition ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
New Generation ◽  
At Home

Subject The government's response to returning foreign fighters. Significance The government is grappling with the problem of returning extremist nationals from foreign battlefields as well as Tunisians imprisoned at home and abroad. The status of illegal Tunisian migrants and asylum seekers in Europe has also generated tension, most strongly with Germany. Impacts Pressure from European governments to repatriate Tunisian citizens will further burden state resources and law enforcement efforts. Prosecuting individuals based on a broad definition of terrorism could further alienate and radicalise young Tunisians. Tunisia’s failure to address the problem of radicalisation in prisons may create a new generation of jihadi-salafist leaders.

Election reinforces the regime’s control of Algeria

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Young Generation ◽  
National Liberation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Liberation Front ◽  
The Government

Significance The National Liberation Front (FLN) and Democratic National Rally (RND) received the most seats, as expected, amid widespread voter apathy. Impacts The government will continue its austerity strategy in response to the low oil price, and face more social tension and protests. The young generation will lose even more trust in the political system and opt for protest, resignation and emigration. The supporters of security and economic cooperation with the United States within the regime were strengthened.

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