Politics deepen economic crisis in Venezuela

Subject The looming economic debacle. Significance The government's proposed assumption of emergency economic powers -- presented to the National Assembly on January 15 -- was rejected a week later by the new opposition-dominated Assembly by 107 votes to 53. Expectations of constitutional conflict and gridlock persist despite the severity of the economic crisis. State oil company PDVSA and the government are expected to make 6.4 billion dollars in debt payments due in February, but Venezuela has had its UN voting rights suspended for falling behind on payments, just weeks before it is due to assume the presidency of the Security Council. Impacts The executive's proposed economic policy authority contains measures that will compound rather than address policy mismanagement. Opposition initiatives formulated in the Assembly to reverse economic collapse will be struck down by the executive and judiciary. Political theatre and paralysis will exacerbate public frustration with the lack of response to deteriorating economic circumstances.

Significance The government's struggle to stave off economic collapse has become increasingly frantic, as inflation has surged, the gap between the official and black market exchange rate has reached or exceeded 100%, and consumers have difficulty finding basics such as sugar and rice. Impacts Increased incidents of popular protests and political dissent reflect worsening economic conditions. Measures to be taken as part of the IMF deal, notably devaluation and further subsidy cuts, could exacerbate social and political tensions. Sisi will deflect some of the blame for the economic crisis onto the government and the central bank. If the government survives this crisis, the economy could recover in the medium term.


Subject Nigeria's economic outlook. Significance The economy contracted by 2.24% year-on-year in the third quarter, sharper than the 2.10% registered in second quarter, led by the oil sector’s continuing decline. The non-oil sector experienced a slight rebound, expanding for the first time this year. However, results here may prove fleeting as the policy environment becomes inimical to growth into 2017. Implementation of next year’s budget is already at risk from the ongoing stand-off between lawmakers and the presidency, while proposed new foreign exchange (forex) controls could further delay the return of crucial investments. Impacts The medium-term expenditure framework is unlikely to ease investor concerns over the government’s economic policy formulation capacity. Potential lenders may demand external policy assistance -- possibly from the IMF -- before considering extending credit to the government. Delays in the national assembly approving the 2017 budget could further undermine investor confidence and hamper growth potential.


Significance The performance of the oil sector and state oil company PDVSA, in particular, is a key factor in the economic collapse. At the same time, a new opposition-dominated National Assembly and OPEC's decision to remove production quotas, abandoning crude oil production constraints, raises political and economic uncertainty amid extremely low global oil prices. Impacts The oil industry should not expect a return to the conditions that existed before late President Hugo Chavez's reforms. In the longer-term, efforts to attract badly needed foreign investment to the oil sector will be difficult. As such, a speedy rebound by the oil sector -- and the economy more generally -- is unlikely.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Innocent Otache

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore agripreneurship development as a strategy for economic growth and development. Design/methodology/approach Though a few related literature were reviewed, this paper relies heavily on the author’s viewpoint regarding how Nigeria can grow and develop its economy through agripreneurship development. Findings The present economic challenges that Nigeria is facing are blamed on overdependence on the oil sector, bad governance, corruption, leadership failure, policy inconsistency, overdependence on imported goods and ostensible neglect of the agricultural sector. Also, policymakers, economic analysts and the government have advocated strongly for diversification of the economy. Besides, there is a consensus among scholars, economic analysts and policymakers that “agriculture is the answer.” Research limitations/implications This paper addresses specifically one sector of the economy – the agricultural sector. On the other hand, economic crisis needs to be addressed holistically by resolving specific issues that confront different sectors of the economy. Practical implications This paper has some insightful policy and practical implications for the Nigerian Government and Nigerians. The government and Nigerians need to take practical steps to grow and develop the economy. On the part of the government, apart from the need to transform the agricultural sector by allocating enough funds to it, the government should establish well-equipped agripreneurship development centers and organize periodically agripreneurship development programmes for the main purpose of training and developing both current and potential agripreneurs who will be able to apply today’s agricultural techniques and practices which involve a great deal of creativity and innovation for a successful agribusiness. The federal government should integrate agripreneurship education into Nigeria’s education system. Similarly, the Nigerian people, particularly the youths or graduates should be encouraged to choose agribusiness as a career. Originality/value While previous papers have offered different solutions to the current economic crisis that Nigeria is experiencing, ranging from economic to structural reforms, this paper differs significantly from others by recommending specifically agripreneurship development as a strategy for revamping Nigeria’s economy from its current recession. Moreover, there is a dearth of literature on agripreneurship and agripreneurship development. This paper therefore fills the literature gap.


2020 ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
VLADIMER PAPAVA

The paper discusses the economic issues of the COVID-19 pandemic. The resulting coronomic crisis is not a typical economic crisis since the coronomic crisis was not formed in the economy itself but is the result of the inability of medicine to solve the pandemic problem. The coronomic crisis is, by its very nature, an atypical economic crisis and is fundamentally different from other atypical economic crises that took place in the XX century. The coronomic crisis put the issue of the “crisis of globalization” on the agenda. The coronomic crisis exposed the weaknesses of globalization. Overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic is possible exclusively at the global level. The paper shows that the current process of de-globalization is “forced” by its nature and it will definitely be replaced by a qualitatively renewed process of globalization. Economic recovery from the corona crisis will be most successful only on the basis of the adherence to a free trade regime. In economic science, the problem of government intervention in the economy, especially during the pandemic and the post-pandemic period, is still relevant. The corona crisis has clearly confirmed the inability of inflation targeting to achieve macroeconomic stability. The coronomic crisis requires two approaches to economic policy. In particular, we mean an anti-crisis economic policy and a post-crisis economic policy. Economic incentives provided by the government to businesses contribute to the zombieing of the economy which will be one of the most difficult problems of the post-crisis period. The coronomic crisis made the issue of the economic security of each individual country even more urgent. The problem of ensuring food security is equally important. The economic policy of the post-crisis period must necessarily include measures to ensure a country’s food security. Since the possibility of a repetition of a pandemic in the future is similar to the current one, the problems of coronomics should remain in the field of study of economists for many years.


Significance There is broad consensus that security sector reform is necessary, but lingering concern that the government lacks a coherent plan, and will end up being distracted by other issues. Impacts The economic crisis resulting from the debt crisis will continue to put the government under severe fiscal pressure. Small amounts of gas should begin to be exported in 2022, but uncertainty over the timelines for larger projects will persist. Mozambique’s relations with neighbours should continue to improve over the immediate term.


Significance The government has reimposed social distancing restrictions, but a reinvigorated pandemic will hurt the economy further and forestall any economic turnaround. Impacts Algeria may find itself at a disadvantage compared to Morocco and Egypt, which have made greater progress countering the pandemic. The longer Algeria’s economic turnaround is delayed, the more likely it is that the country will have to resort to external financing. If the country’s economic crisis becomes more acute, the president would likely reshuffle the cabinet in an effort to shift blame. The president himself may also come under pressure to resign.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peterson K. Ozili

PurposeThis paper analyses the COVID-19 situation in Nigeria, its effect on the economy and the structural causes that worsened the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses simple descriptive analysis to examine the COVID-19 situation in Nigeria.FindingsThe findings reveal that the economic downturn in Nigeria was triggered by a combination of declining oil price and spillovers from the COVID-19 outbreak, which not only led to a fall in the demand for oil products but also stopped economic activities from taking place when social distancing policies were enforced. The government responded to the crisis by providing financial assistance to businesses and a small number of households that were affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. The monetary authority adopted accommodative monetary policies and offered a targeted 3.5 trillion loan support to some sectors. These efforts should have prevented the economic crisis from occurring but it did not. Economic agents could not freely engage in economic activities for fear of contracting the COVID-19 disease that was spreading very fast at the time.Practical implicationsThe implication of the study is that policymakers should pay attention to three areas of the economy for economic and structural reform. One, policymakers should introduce economic reforms to diversify the economy and reduce Nigeria's dependence on revenue from crude oil export. Two, policymakers in Nigeria should invest in healthcare infrastructure to improve the ability of the national health system to withstand the outbreak of contagious diseases. Three, there is also a need to build appropriate digital infrastructure to facilitate the transition from “face-to-face” business activities to a “digital or online” business activities, which can help to grow the digital economy. Also, policymakers should use legislation to create a robust social welfare safety net for all citizens particularly for unemployed citizens and poor households.Originality/valueThis is the first paper that looks at the economic implication of COVID-19 in a West African country.


Significance The party base of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began the process of nominations for primaries that will be convened in June to select candidates for the 2015 National Assembly elections. The government enters the selection process on the back of a rise in popular support catalysed by perceived US aggression and Maduro's strong anti-imperialist narrative. Impacts The broad base of the PSUV nominations process contrasts with MUD plans, fuelling doubts over MUD divisions. Chavista 'battle units' will nominate four candidates, a strategy that is boosting waning enthusiasm for the Bolivarian Revolution. The primaries process strengthens the government's commitment to the parliamentary elections, the date of which has yet to be set.


Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.


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