Venezuela's Maduro gains breathing space, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Bolivarian Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Broad Base ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government

Significance The party base of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began the process of nominations for primaries that will be convened in June to select candidates for the 2015 National Assembly elections. The government enters the selection process on the back of a rise in popular support catalysed by perceived US aggression and Maduro's strong anti-imperialist narrative. Impacts The broad base of the PSUV nominations process contrasts with MUD plans, fuelling doubts over MUD divisions. Chavista 'battle units' will nominate four candidates, a strategy that is boosting waning enthusiasm for the Bolivarian Revolution. The primaries process strengthens the government's commitment to the parliamentary elections, the date of which has yet to be set.

Regional elections will reopen tensions in Venezuela

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
International Response ◽  
The Government ◽  
Regional Elections

Significance The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) thus captured 18 of Venezuela’s 23 state governorships in regional elections held October 15 with an increase in its share of the vote relative to the 2012 governor elections and the 2015 National Assembly elections. The opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD) won five states -- up from three in 2012. Despite questions over the transparency of the electoral process, the opposition ran a poor campaign. Impacts The results are a serious setback for the fractious MUD, whose future as a unified opposition alliance looks uncertain. The PSUV will now feel confident in moving ahead with municipal and presidential elections. Absent concrete evidence of fraud, a hostile international response, including possible EU sanctions, will further entrench the government.

Confrontation will rise in coming weeks in Venezuela

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Catholic Church ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Political Prisoners ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Bolivarian Revolution ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Catholic Church

Significance The opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD), which gained a two-thirds supermajority in the December 6 National Assembly elections, has outlined plans for removing Maduro, reversing economic strategy, freeing political prisoners and dismantling the Bolivarian Revolution. Maduro and the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) have responded with a flood of initiatives intended to anchor the socialist model and bypass the new Assembly. Impacts Confrontation between the executive and Assembly shows no inclination to dialogue on crucial national issues. Polarisation is drawing in other actors, including the Catholic Church, media, trade unions, social organisations and the military. Divisions within both the PSUV and MUD will harden as strategy and priorities in both are determined by minority factions.

Venezuela polarisation points to instability ahead

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Prisoners ◽  
Bolivarian Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Back

Significance The National Assembly that convened January 5 has assumed a combative posture towards the government of President Nicolas Maduro which has, in turn, demonstrated an early resolve to bypass the legislature. Supporters of dialogue and negotiated reform on both sides have been marginalised, with confrontational actors promoted to dominant positions in the assembly and cabinet. Impacts The opposition will seek to advance its legislative priorities quickly, notably the release of political prisoners including Leopoldo Lopez. Assembly efforts to unpick and roll back the Bolivarian Revolution will prompt increasingly defensive and incoherent government responses. Intractable deadlock, wild rumour and instability are inevitable over the weeks and months ahead.

Invalid Hungarian referendum will gain Orban little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Hungarian government's anti-immigration stance. Significance Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have been campaigning against the wave of migrants seeking refuge in Europe, and the EU's handling of the resulting crisis. The government hoped a referendum on October 2 would reject EU settlement of non-Hungarians in Hungary without parliament's consent. With a turnout of less than 50%, the referendum is null and void. Orban's Fidesz party nevertheless claimed victory, as 98.6% of those who cast a valid vote opposed relocation. Impacts The opposition to Fidesz will be able to frame the referendum as its first victory since 2010 and try to build unity on that basis. Fidesz will be unable to extend its popular support on the basis of these results. The EU is unlikely to react forcefully to constitutional amendments in Hungary, given Brexit and elections in France and Germany.

New Cyprus parliament will be tougher to deal with

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Presidential System ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Republic Of Cyprus ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Subject The May 22 parliamentary elections. Significance The elections had the lowest turnout in the history of the Republic of Cyprus and brought about significant changes in the composition of the chamber. They were conducted amid a climate of fragile economic recovery and talks with the Turkish Cypriots on reunification. The outcome was a weakening of parliamentary support for the talks and a louder voice for nationalist, anti-austerity and anti-reform views. Impacts The government that is in place will not be affected because Cyprus has a presidential system. However, the lack of a parliamentary majority could hinder the Cypriot economy's fragile recovery. Resolving the division of Cyprus problem would be a significant positive boost for the very insecure Eastern Mediterranean.

Prospects for Venezuela in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for Venezuela in 2016. Significance The conduct and results of the December 6 National Assembly elections will shape political and economic prospects in 2016. The contest will not presage stability, reform or consensus; instead, gridlock and a deepening of polarisation is expected. Amid an erosion of President Nicolas Maduro's already waning credibility, mobilisation for a recall referendum will be the focus of opposition activity. The grave economic situation will remain a background consideration for both the government and its opponents.

Mongolia mine move raises nationalisation fears

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Mining Company ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Main Obstacle ◽  
The Government

Subject The sale of the Erdenet mine. Significance The day before parliamentary elections in June last year, Prime Minister Saikhanbileg Chimed announced the sale of 49% of shares held by the Russian government in the Erdenet Mining Corporation and the Mongolrostsvetmet mining company to Mongolia Copper Corporation, an unknown private Mongolian company. Subsequent parliamentary inquiry concluded that the sale was unconstitutional and the government ordered the shares transferred to the state on February 16 this year. The government’s actions received wide public support while polls reveal that the electorate views corruption as the main obstacle to Mongolia’s development Impacts Talk of 'nationalisation' in the Western media threatens to derail Mongolia's efforts to fix its image and attract foreign investors. The unusual circumstances of the sale raise suspicions of corruption and collusion between Mongolia's previous government and largest bank. The new government's will to scrutinise sale demonstrates the strength of Mongolia’s democracy.

Spain’s budget majority promises political stability

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.

Guerrillas could prompt Turkish state of emergency

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Population ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
Turkish State ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
State Group

Significance They were responding to increasingly serious attacks on Turkish soldiers and police by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas in eastern Turkey. With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowing fierce retribution, and conflicts between the authorities and the local population growing in the Kurdish-dominated south-east, the country is braced for full-scale war, just as it prepares for fresh parliamentary elections on November 1. Impacts Business and the economy face a sharp downturn with the lira growing steadily weaker. The conflict with the Kurds will intensify and Kurdish demands for full-scale independence will increase. The government will not seek a compromise with the Kurds and will be prepared to allocate any resources needed for a military solution. A more authoritarian style of government is likely to emerge after November. Turkey looks increasingly vulnerable to serious Islamic State group (ISG) attacks in urban centres, though probably not before the election.

Mauritanian president’s ambitions may shape elections

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Services ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Term Limit ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Street Protest ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year

Subject Prospects for a presidential third term and the upcoming local and legislative elections. Significance Legislative and municipal elections due towards the end of this year will be a significant political test for both the government and President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz, just one year before the crucial 2019 presidential contest. Despite his denials of any ambition to stand for a third term, there is a widespread expectation that Abdelaziz will seek to remain in office. However, that would mean scrapping the current two-term limit -- a constitutional change that would require a two-thirds majority in the national assembly. Change could provoke protests at home and criticism from Western allies. Impacts The main lines of policy on the economy, the extractives sector and public services would be unlikely to change under a new president. The IMF’s December 2017 decision to approve a new three-year programme provides a stable framework for investors. The regime will crack down hard on any large public street protest that appears likely to gather momentum.

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