TPP will help reshape Japan's industrial structure

Subject Japan and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government plans to pass legislation early this year to allow ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade agreement. Impacts Japan's well-developed retail and other service sectors will gain access to promising new markets in Vietnam and Malaysia. Bringing Thailand and Indonesia into the TPP may prove easier than relocating Japanese auto production to TPP countries. The TPP's pharmaceuticals provisions could help contain Japan's sky-rocketing healthcare costs. Cheaper imported food will benefit Japan's catering, retailing, hospitality and other service-sector industries. Concessions won from Japan's negotiating partners will sweeten the pill for many farmers, but also slow down agricultural reforms.

Significance US efforts to renegotiate NAFTA were already tense, but this round of talks comes after Canada filed a wide-ranging complaint at the WTO over US trade practices. Meanwhile, the implementation of the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the revival of an eleven-member version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without the United States could bring some good economic news to Canada. However, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been rebuffed in their efforts to begin free trade agreement (FTA) talks with China. Impacts Canada’s WTO case could make Trump more likely to leave NAFTA after this negotiation round. Resumed WTO tariffs in North American trade may see higher lumber, minerals, oil and other commodities prices. Bureaucratic interventions defending national interests in Canadian and EU government procurement will blunt CETA’s potential.


Subject Left-wing extremism and governing instability in Nepal. Significance President Bidhya Devi Bhandari late last month signed protocols operationalising a Transit and Transport Agreement (TTA) reached with China in 2016, reflecting the governing Nepal Communist Party (NCP)’s continued efforts to break Nepal’s historical dependence on its other major neighbour, India. Separately, there have recently been outbreaks of political violence prompted by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) or CPN (M), which opposes the ‘globalist’ direction in which the country is heading. Impacts The NCP government will come under growing pressure to arrest the CPN (M)’s leadership. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, if re-elected, will likely prioritise a diplomatic visit to Nepal. Nepal and China will expedite talks over a free trade agreement.


Significance By the end of this month, Washington wants Ottawa to sign on to the new NAFTA deal that Mexico City and Washington agreed last month. If Ottawa refuses, US and Canadian economic dislocation will follow (particularly in the auto sector), which would be made worse if a replacement Canada-US free trade agreement (FTA) is not agreed quickly or at all. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said yesterday he would not bow to US pressure and would negotiate in Canada’s interests. Impacts Canadian pharma firms would decline but survive if a deal safeguarding US patents from generic drugs competition were agreed. Canada may modify, but not totally dismantle, its agricultural supply management system to allow more US competition. Canadian cultural industries (film, arts, television) will likely lose their protection from US competition. A no-deal would likely see Canadian firms seek new non-US markets, but new FTAs are not guaranteed. No deal would increase Canadian joblessness and lose the governing Liberals votes, but they would likely still win in 2019.


Subject Problems facing the Thai government. Significance Thailand’s government, led by a party with ties to the junta that ruled until July, is facing political and economic headwinds as it tries to establish civilian rule. The king is consolidating his authority, political opponents are pushing back on the ruling coalition and exports are weakening, raising quandaries for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Impacts A worsening trade outlook will prompt the government to step up efforts to secure a free trade agreement with the EU. Thailand and the United States will take time to strengthen bilateral ties, nominally mended when Prayut visited Washington in 2017. The army units under the king’s direct control could provide cover for rival factions to Prayut’s in the event of another military coup.


2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-152
Author(s):  
Ilhamdi Ilhamdi ◽  
Rina Oktaviani ◽  
Yeti Lis Purnamadewi

This study aims to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ‎and ‎ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) on sectoral employment in ASEAN ‎‎5. The analysis ‎focused on five main sectors, namely agriculture, mining, ‎manufacturing, ‎construction and service sectors. This paper uses panel data ‎approach with Fixed Effect Model. Variable used include employment as an ‎edogenous variable, while GDP, wages and AFTA as exogenous variables. Cross section data that are used in this study consist of ASEAN 5 countries, ‎namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam with periods of ‎observation as much as 9 years, from  2006 until 2014.‎The result of this paper that FDI, GDP, wages and AFTA have different ‎impacts in each sector. FDI has positive impact on employment in service sector. ‎GDP has positive impact on employment in manufacturing, construction and ‎service sectors. While GDP in the agricultural and mining sectors has negative ‎impact on employment. The wage has a positive impact on employment in the ‎mining and agricultural sectors. ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) that took ‎place in 2010 has a positive impact on employment in the manufacturing and ‎mining sectors.‎Foreign Direct Investment is one factor to overcome employment issues in ‎ASEAN 5, especially in service sector. While GDP becomes an important variable ‎in enhancing ASEAN 5  employment in the manufacturing, construction and ‎services. Increasing wages can be applied on agriculture and mining as it has a ‎positive impact on employment. AFTA that has taken place is proper policy for the ‎ASEAN 5 to encourage economic growth in the mining and manufacturing ‎sectors that have an impact on increasing demand of labor in the sector.‎


Subject Reforms to Japan's agricultural sector and their impact on trade policy. Significance The government is about to pass legislation curbing the powers of the JA Group, the sprawling conglomerate that dominates the country's farming sector. JA has lobbied successfully for decades for import barriers and subsidies, particularly for rice, and is the most formidable opponent of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes to sign with the United States. Impacts Economic and political forces are inexorably chipping away at the traditional farming sector's political power and regulatory protection. As commercial farmers benefit from deregulation, their weight as a constituency will grow, making further liberalisation easier. In boldly confronting the feared farmers' lobby and winning, Abe signals his seriousness about structural reform.


Significance A seven-party coalition led by the main anti-junta Pheu Thai Party is short of the halfway mark in the 500-member House of Representatives. The pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party has fewer seats than Pheu Thai. However, with the 250-member Senate hand-picked by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), it has a strong chance of mustering the requisite support of half the National Assembly (the House and Senate together) to return incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to power. Impacts The military will be the dominant force in Thai politics. Amid flagging exports, the new government could widen tax incentives to boost domestic consumption. Negotiations on an EU-Thailand free trade agreement will likely resume.


Subject Brexit negotiations. Significance A Northern Ireland-specific agreement is now the best hope for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to deliver Brexit by October 31 with a deal. While Johnson would likely accept alignment of Northern Ireland with EU rules if this meant replacing the UK-wide backstop, convincing his Northern Irish allies in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) remains the key challenge. Impacts Delivering Brexit with a deal will increase the prospects for a UK-US free trade agreement. A risk of a Northern Ireland backstop is that it will invite pressure from Scottish nationalists, who would want similar special treatment. The EU is likely to accept an Article 50 extension request if an election or referendum is due to take place.


2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-152
Author(s):  
Ilhamdi Ilhamdi ◽  
Rina Oktaviani ◽  
Yeti Lis Purnamadewi

This study aims to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ‎and ‎ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) on sectoral employment in ASEAN ‎‎5. The analysis ‎focused on five main sectors, namely agriculture, mining, ‎manufacturing, ‎construction and service sectors. This paper uses panel data ‎approach with Fixed Effect Model. Variable used include employment as an ‎edogenous variable, while GDP, wages and AFTA as exogenous variables. Cross section data that are used in this study consist of ASEAN 5 countries, ‎namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam with periods of ‎observation as much as 9 years, from  2006 until 2014.‎The result of this paper that FDI, GDP, wages and AFTA have different ‎impacts in each sector. FDI has positive impact on employment in service sector. ‎GDP has positive impact on employment in manufacturing, construction and ‎service sectors. While GDP in the agricultural and mining sectors has negative ‎impact on employment. The wage has a positive impact on employment in the ‎mining and agricultural sectors. ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) that took ‎place in 2010 has a positive impact on employment in the manufacturing and ‎mining sectors.‎Foreign Direct Investment is one factor to overcome employment issues in ‎ASEAN 5, especially in service sector. While GDP becomes an important variable ‎in enhancing ASEAN 5  employment in the manufacturing, construction and ‎services. Increasing wages can be applied on agriculture and mining as it has a ‎positive impact on employment. AFTA that has taken place is proper policy for the ‎ASEAN 5 to encourage economic growth in the mining and manufacturing ‎sectors that have an impact on increasing demand of labor in the sector.‎


2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 590-606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arvind Upadhyay ◽  
Shaheda Akter ◽  
Lindsay Adams ◽  
Vikas Kumar ◽  
Nikhil Varma

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of the different circular business models (CBMs) in the manufacturing and service sector and apply this in the context of the food industry (FI), through a systematic literature review of related published journals and articles. The research study is designed to illustrate the impact of CBMs in the manufacturing and service sectors through a combination of real-life examples and direct references to existing literature.Design/methodology/approachThe underlying research study follows a systematic literature review approach where the relevant CBMs are explored in the context of the manufacturing and service sector (FI.) The journals most cited in the context of CBMs and their implication in the manufacturing and service sector were chosen for this study. There was no fixed timeframe applied to complete the research. A total of 54 articles were selected which referenced: discussion in the context of the concept of CBMs; different types of CBM; definition of the manufacturing sector; definition of the service sector (FI); application of different CBMs in these two sectors; and included a comparison of the application of CBMs. In total, 40 of the 54 articles were shortlisted for best relevance and used in the research study.FindingsThe underlying research study was limited to 40 articles and the data contained within them. The article search was limited to the keywords of the CBM; the implication of CBM; the CBM in manufacturing (textiles); circular business in service (FI); and comparison and application of the CBM.Practical implicationsThe final analysis demonstrates that circular business promotes sustainability by allowing companies to generate maximum return from given resources and reach zero waste targets. Greater customer satisfaction is also achieved through service innovation that cuts down negative impact on the environment. These findings are relevant and applicable to the FI.Originality/valueA review of existing literature showed that whilst there is significant research on the implications of the CBM in general, there has been little focus on the use of different CBMs specifically in the manufacturing and service industry (FI). This research study is designed to tease out the specific benefits of CBMs in this context, highlighting the contribution they can make to efficiency in both the manufacturing and service sectors (FI) through useful comparison.


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