Thailand will face regular legislative gridlock

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
National Council ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Military

Significance A seven-party coalition led by the main anti-junta Pheu Thai Party is short of the halfway mark in the 500-member House of Representatives. The pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party has fewer seats than Pheu Thai. However, with the 250-member Senate hand-picked by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), it has a strong chance of mustering the requisite support of half the National Assembly (the House and Senate together) to return incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to power. Impacts The military will be the dominant force in Thai politics. Amid flagging exports, the new government could widen tax incentives to boost domestic consumption. Negotiations on an EU-Thailand free trade agreement will likely resume.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

Pre-poll loss may hurt Thailand’s key anti-junta party

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
National Council ◽  
Considerable Influence ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Constitutional Court earlier this month banned the Thai Raksa Chart Party, an offshoot of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party. A 500-member House of Representatives, based on mixed-member proportional representation, and a 250-member Senate, hand-picked by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order, will together decide on the next prime minister. Impacts The military will exercise considerable influence over post-election policymaking through the Senate. Foreign direct investment may increase following the installation of a civilian administration. Relations with the West, especially the EU, are likely to improve under a civilian government.

Canada will struggle to diversify trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Procurement ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic News ◽  
American Trade

Significance US efforts to renegotiate NAFTA were already tense, but this round of talks comes after Canada filed a wide-ranging complaint at the WTO over US trade practices. Meanwhile, the implementation of the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the revival of an eleven-member version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without the United States could bring some good economic news to Canada. However, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been rebuffed in their efforts to begin free trade agreement (FTA) talks with China. Impacts Canada’s WTO case could make Trump more likely to leave NAFTA after this negotiation round. Resumed WTO tariffs in North American trade may see higher lumber, minerals, oil and other commodities prices. Bureaucratic interventions defending national interests in Canadian and EU government procurement will blunt CETA’s potential.

TPP will help reshape Japan's industrial structure

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
Imported Food ◽  
Gain Access

Subject Japan and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government plans to pass legislation early this year to allow ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade agreement. Impacts Japan's well-developed retail and other service sectors will gain access to promising new markets in Vietnam and Malaysia. Bringing Thailand and Indonesia into the TPP may prove easier than relocating Japanese auto production to TPP countries. The TPP's pharmaceuticals provisions could help contain Japan's sky-rocketing healthcare costs. Cheaper imported food will benefit Japan's catering, retailing, hospitality and other service-sector industries. Concessions won from Japan's negotiating partners will sweeten the pill for many farmers, but also slow down agricultural reforms.

Thailand’s pro-junta party holds edge ahead of polls

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Thailand's upcoming general election. Significance The Election Commission (EC) earlier this month announced that the general election, long promised by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) since the 2014 coup, will take place on February 24. Immediately after, the junta announced that it was lifting a ban on political activity. The recently formed, pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party will be contesting the poll alongside longer-standing parties such as the Pheu Thai Party and Democrat Party. Impacts Phalang Pracharat will probably nominate Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its front-runner, making him likely to retain his post. The royal coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn will take place after the election. The EC may bar foreign observers from monitoring the polls.

Nepal’s Maoist threat is small but could be troubling

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type

Subject Left-wing extremism and governing instability in Nepal. Significance President Bidhya Devi Bhandari late last month signed protocols operationalising a Transit and Transport Agreement (TTA) reached with China in 2016, reflecting the governing Nepal Communist Party (NCP)’s continued efforts to break Nepal’s historical dependence on its other major neighbour, India. Separately, there have recently been outbreaks of political violence prompted by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) or CPN (M), which opposes the ‘globalist’ direction in which the country is heading. Impacts The NCP government will come under growing pressure to arrest the CPN (M)’s leadership. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, if re-elected, will likely prioritise a diplomatic visit to Nepal. Nepal and China will expedite talks over a free trade agreement.

Referendum embeds semi-authoritarian rule in Thailand

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Council ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Military Control ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Significance Although official results are due on August 10, the Election Commission has announced that, after a count of 94% of votes, both questions posed in the referendum -- on the draft constitution and on the role of the appointed Senate in selecting the prime minister -- have won approval by 61% and 58% respectively. This is a major political victory for the military's National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha. Impacts The military, the palace and all major political parties favour an open economy. This will secure investor interest in Thailand. Strong military control over the state will reduce the policy influence of civilian politicians. Despite the political turn, US-Thailand security cooperation will continue, as will the deepening of China-Thailand economic partnership.

New Canada-US NAFTA deal is likely despite risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mexico City ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Management System ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Generic Drugs ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Supply Management ◽  
Cultural Industries ◽  
Content Type

Significance By the end of this month, Washington wants Ottawa to sign on to the new NAFTA deal that Mexico City and Washington agreed last month. If Ottawa refuses, US and Canadian economic dislocation will follow (particularly in the auto sector), which would be made worse if a replacement Canada-US free trade agreement (FTA) is not agreed quickly or at all. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said yesterday he would not bow to US pressure and would negotiate in Canada’s interests. Impacts Canadian pharma firms would decline but survive if a deal safeguarding US patents from generic drugs competition were agreed. Canada may modify, but not totally dismantle, its agricultural supply management system to allow more US competition. Canadian cultural industries (film, arts, television) will likely lose their protection from US competition. A no-deal would likely see Canadian firms seek new non-US markets, but new FTAs are not guaranteed. No deal would increase Canadian joblessness and lose the governing Liberals votes, but they would likely still win in 2019.

Thai military will stymie post-poll democracy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Subject Military's role in Thai politics. Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) last week issued an order, based on Section 44 of the 2014 interim constitution, allowing the Election Commission (EC) to make changes to districts for the upcoming general election. The poll is currently targeted for February-May 2019. The recently formed Phalang Pracharat Party (PPP) will likely be a vehicle for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to retain the premiership in a post-election civilian government. Impacts If a ban on political activity is lifted in mid-December, the election is very likely to take place in February-May 2019 as now pledged. The royal coronation will likely occur in late 2019 if the election is in February but could be in early 2019 if the poll is in May. The junta could use a new cybersecurity law, likely to be passed before the election, to target opponents and critics.

Thailand’s junta will deepen ties with king

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
National Council ◽  
Transfer System ◽  
Direct Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
The Military

Subject Relations between Thailand's military and monarchy. Significance The military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) earlier this month dismissed speculation that the long-awaited general election would be delayed beyond February next year. In June, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha hinted that King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s coronation must take place before the poll. Since his enthronement in December 2016, King Vajiralongkorn has focused on strengthening his control over royal institutions. Impacts The king’s direct control of the palace’s shares in Siam Commercial Bank and Siam Cement Group will not affect corporate governance. Lese-majeste cases will continue even if the palace attempts to reduce enforcement. Prayut’s use of the promotion and transfer system will continue to limit factional tensions within the military. Any future removal of the military-imposed ban on political activities will be met with an increased security presence.

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