Somalia will mark transition in 2016, if not change

Subject Outlook for Somalia's political transition. Significance Leaders of the federal government and member states will meet on January 10 in Kismayo to finalise the framework for the August-September 2016 political transition. This will involve state-level electoral colleges selecting parliamentarians based on clan and constituency-based representation, rather than direct elections. Impacts Any transition in 2016 would fulfil a key donor requirement and mark a break with the politics of the 2004-12 period. Insecurity will challenge the transition, as the political turmoil in Burundi threatens further strain on AMISOM coherence and troop levels. Donor backing for AMISOM is set to shift, with the EU reducing its support by 20% from January.

Significance The EP vote could in theory lead to sanctions under Article 7 of the EU Treaty (TEU). An 'illiberal state' has emerged in Hungary since 2010, profoundly and durably modifying the functioning of the political system, entrenching the power of the ruling Fidesz party and weakening the opposition. Impacts Fidesz will renew its strong majority in the 2018 elections and further consolidate its power in years to come. Member states are unlikely to agree on the deep reform of EU rule of law procedures that would allow a systematic response. Neighbouring states and candidate countries are likely to drift increasingly away from the liberal model.


Significance Centre-left candidate Zoran Milanovic won the second round with 53% of the vote. Grabar-Kitarovic’s embarrassing campaign performance only partly explains her humiliating second-round defeat; more significant is the growing split in the ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which backed her. The political scene may see major changes, but not necessarily a move to the left. Impacts Political turmoil will hamper Croatia’s already limited capacity to handle its rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. A change of president may improve Croatia's poor relations with neighbours Bosnia and Serbia. Milanovic is a known quantity whose personal, political and diplomatic capacity will be an improvement on Grabar-Kitarovic’s. Milanovic has frosty relations with Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, and Bosniaks remember him saying privately that Bosnia was not a country. Plenkovic’s weakened position will affect the Bosnian HDZ's leader, Dragan Covic, seen as neglecting Bosnian Croat interests.


Subject The rift between the political elite and the electorate. Significance The crisis of late 2014, in which politicians were accused of complicity in a large bank fraud, continues to create political turbulence in Moldova. The arrest of former Prime Minister Vlad Filat in October led to further crisis in which one ruling coalition was replaced by another as street protests by an alliance of pro-Russian and pro-European forces continued. The approval of Pavel Filip as prime minister in January did nothing to strengthen the government's credibility in the eyes of an angry electorate. Impacts Snap parliamentary elections would significantly strengthen Russia's position, as pro-Moscow parties would gain ground. The EU will become cautious about financial aid for Eastern Partnership members and will demand evidence of transparency. The Romanian political establishment will lose its enthusiasm for unification with a dysfunctional Moldova.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmytro S. Melnyk ◽  
Oleg A. Parfylo ◽  
Oleksii V. Butenko ◽  
Olena V. Tykhonova ◽  
Volodymyr O. Zarosylo

Purpose The experience of most European Union (EU) Member States has demonstrated effective anti-corruption practices, making the EU one of the leaders in this field, which can be used as an example to learn from in the field of anti-corruption. The purpose of this study is to analyze and identify the main features of anti-corruption legislation and strategies to prevent corruption at the national and supranational levels of the EU. Design/methodology/approach The following methods were used in the work: discourse and content analysis, method of system analysis, method of induction and deduction, historical-legal method, formal-legal method, comparative-legal method and others. Using the historical and legal method, the evolution of the formation of anti-corruption regulation at the supranational level was revealed. The comparative law method helped to compare the practices of the Member States of the EU in the field of anti-corruption regulation. The formal-legal method is used for generalization, classification and systematization of research results, as well as for the correct presentation of these results. Findings The main results, prospects for further research and the value of the material. The paper offers a critical review of key EU legal instruments on corruption, from the first initiatives taken in the mid-1990s to recent years. Originality/value In addition, the article analyzes the relevant anti-corruption legislation in the EU member states that are in the top 10 countries with the lowest level of corruption, namely: Denmark, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany and Luxembourg.


Author(s):  
Petr YAKOVLEV

The decision on Britain’s secession from the European Union, taken by the British Parliament and agreed by London and Brussels, divided the Union history into “before” and “after”. Not only will the remaining member states have to “digest” the political, commercial, economic and mental consequences of parting with one of the largest partners. They will also have to create a substantially new algorithm for the functioning of United Europe. On this path, the EU is confronted with many geopolitical and geo-economic challenges, which should be answered by the new leaders of the European Commission, European Council, and European Parliament.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marijke Welisch ◽  
Gustav Resch ◽  
André Ortner

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to provide estimation results for feasibility of renewable energy source (RES) deployment in Turkey, the Western Balkans and North Africa. From these results, the potential for cooperation in renewables production between the countries and the European Union (EU) is assessed and evaluated, in a mid- (2030) and long-term (up to 2040) perspective. Design/methodology/approach The authors focus on the quantitative assessments undertaken on the extent to which RES cooperation can create mutual benefits, identifying costs and benefits for both sides, but in particular with respect to RES target achievement (2020 and 2030) at EU level. The potentials for RES generation in Turkey, North Africa and the Western Balkans are calculated under different policy pathways, taking into account different levels of economic and non-economic barriers that could occur. Findings Overall, the authors found that increasing RES deployment in the three analysed regions and initiating or intensifying cooperation with EU28 Member States leads to mutual benefits. Concretely, these benefits become apparent in terms of the EU Member States importing renewable energy sources for electricity with a good resource quality and adding on to their targets for RES deployment. At the same time, substantial savings occur for the EU, in turn leading to income and investments in the cooperating regions. Originality/value The assessment underlying this paper is the first of its kind to the authors’ knowledge that opens up the geographical spread in comparison to merely assessing cooperation between Europe and the Middle East and North Africa. Furthermore, the multitude of policy parameters analysed provides detailed and robust insights concerning a broad variety of different possible scenarios.


2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 295-311
Author(s):  
Matilde Lafuente-Lechuga ◽  
Úrsula Faura-Martínez ◽  
Olga García-Luque

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show evidence of the divergence of welfare outcomes in the European Union (EU) during the economic crisis, which made the European social model fail, and the convergence among European countries halt. This study reviews Sapir’s model for classifying European welfare state systems and adapts it to the new reality, taking into account Europe 2020 targets on poverty reduction and employment growth. Design/methodology/approach Two variables are used in the application of Sapir’s graphical analysis to European social models: the employment rate as efficiency indicator, and the people At Risk Of Poverty and/or Exclusion rate as equity indicator. Both efficiency and equity are present in Europe 2020 targets. In addition, a cluster analysis is applied. Findings The division of EU member states into four geopolitical social models has proved to be dynamic, changing in the period under analysis. As a consequence of the economic crisis and the fiscal consolidation, efficiency and equity levels across the EU are polarised between the Mediterranean and the Nordic models. Originality/value This paper shows the effects of the economic crisis in the EU, analysing the evolution between 2008 and 2014, and incorporating Eastern Europe new member states into the analysis.


Author(s):  
Gordon Lafer

This concluding chapter examines the political dynamics that pit growing populist sentiment against increasing corporate dominance, particularly at the state level. It explains what the corporate agenda is not, arguing that the same corporate lobbies that are leading the charge against public employee unions are also at the forefront of the campaign against issues such as minimum wage, entitlements to overtime or sick leave, and occupational safety. It discusses the pattern of business-backed legislation, highlighting the many contradictions in the corporate agenda. It also considers how the success of the corporate lobbies has contributed to economic decline and political turmoil. Finally, it assesses public opinion against the business elites' platform as well as corporate lobbies' efforts to protect their privilege by attempting to shrink the scope of democracy; for example, by supporting preemption statutes.


2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (9) ◽  
pp. 1095-1115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Koliousis ◽  
Dongmei Cao ◽  
Panagiotis Koliousis

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of deregulation on the European transport industry in the form of privatization, on the managerial efficiency of a panel of deregulated transport companies. Design/methodology/approach This research examines a data set of 25 deregulated transport companies from a sample of 12 EU nations from 1988 to 2015. Some studies have analyzed deregulation by using non-parametric models. However, only a limited number of studies focus on the impact of deregulation on the managerial efficiency. This study answers two questions: whether deregulation, in the form of privatization, in the transport sector has any effect on the managerial efficiency, on the profitability and on the investment decisions of the firm, and whether this premise is robust enough across the European transport industry. This study formulates a multivariate regression framework utilizing data from major privatized European transport companies. The final panel includes 25 companies, from 12 EU - Member States for the period 1988-2015, equaling 375 firm-year observations based on a rigorous selection methodology. Findings The study confirms that transport companies, post-privatization, are more efficient regarding operating efficiency and profitability. The authors find no evidence that deregulation improves investment efficiency. Social implications The study addresses the regulators’ dilemma, whether to deregulate, by focusing on analyzing the improvement of the managerial efficiency. Originality/value This study contributes to the transport industry management literature in three ways. First, the authors update the literature of the economic theory of regulation with an empirical examination which covers the latest years across the EU Member States. Second, the authors introduce a comparison of the effects of deregulation on different components of the managerial efficiency, namely, investment, profitability and operating efficiency of the incumbents in the EU transport industry. Third, they examine deregulation by using two approaches: a traditional one where deregulation is a dummy variable assessing the overall effect on incumbents’ efficiency performance; and a novel approach where the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s deregulation index is used to measure the regulation intensity, accounting also for industry-wide impact assessment. This two-sided approach increases the robustness of the results.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jadranka Švarc ◽  
Jasminka Lažnjak ◽  
Marina Dabić

PurposeThis study, an exploratory one, aims to empirically investigate the association of national intellectual capital (NIC) with the national digital transformation readiness of the European Union's (EU’s) member states. Apart from building the conceptual model of NIC, this study explores the role of NIC dimensions in the digital divide between European countries.Design/methodology/approachBased on the literature review and the available EU statistical data and indexes, the theoretical framework and conceptual model for NIC were developed. The model explores the relation of NIC and its dimensions (human, social, structural, relational and renewable/development capital) on the readiness of European countries for digital transformation and the digital divide. Significant differences between EU countries in NIC and digital readiness were tested. Multiple linear regression was used to explore the association of each NIC dimension with digital transformation and digital divide within the EU.FindingsDespite a positive association between all dimensions of NIC and digital transformation readiness, the proposed model of NIC was not confirmed in full. Regression analysis proved social capital and working skills, a dimension of human capital, to be the predictors of digital transformation at a national level, able to detect certain elements of digital divide between EU member states. Structural capital, knowledge and education, as dimensions of human capital, were predictors of the digital divide in terms of the integration of digital media in companies.Research limitations/implicationsThis research has a limited propensity for generalisation due to the lack of common measurement models in the field of NIC exploration.Practical implicationsThis research offers policy makers an indication of the relationships between NIC and digital transformation, pointing out which dimensions of NIC should be strengthened to allow the EU to meet the challenges of digital economy and to overcome the digital divide between EU member states.Social implicationsThe use of digital technologies is key in creating active and informed citizens in the public sphere and productive companies and economic growth in the business sphere.Originality/valueThis study provides an original theoretical framework and conceptual model through which to analyse the relationship between NIC and digital transformation, which has thus far not been explored at the level of the EU. This research makes an original contribution to the empirical exploration of NIC and produces new insights in the fields of digital transformation and intellectual capital.


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