Chechen leader campaigns for funds and re-election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Special Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
The North ◽  
State Group ◽  
Unique Status

Subject Kadyrov's attacks on the Russian opposition. Significance After making a series of open threats against Russian opposition figures, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov recently claimed to have sent special forces to Syria to spy on Islamic State group (ISG) and guide Russian air strikes. Chechnya has unique status among Russia's regions and republics. In return for holding down the security situation, Kadyrov controls armed forces not subordinated to Moscow, introduces rules that would be unlawful elsewhere and enjoys impunity for numerous human rights abuses attributed to his men. Impacts Kadyrov will try to build a reputation as zealous defender of Russia against domestic and foreign enemies. While portraying himself as Moscow's indispensable ally in the North Caucasus, Kadyrov will not seek alliances with neighbouring regions. Further outspoken comments will alarm national and regional elites in Russia, but will not bring censure from Putin.

Syria action risks growing terrorism threat in Russia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Terrorism risks to Russia. Significance The Islamic State group (ISG) called for jihad against Russia and the United States on October 13. ISG regards Moscow and Washington as fighting a 'crusader war' against Muslims. Concern in Russia is growing that President Vladimir Putin's Syrian intervention will increase the terrorism threat inside the country. Impacts Exodus of radicals to fight with ISG has improved the security situation in the North Caucasus but many may seek to return to attack Russia. Chechen leader Kadyrov's power will grow if North Caucasus terrorism increases, as Moscow will need him to help restore order. Russia will push for closer security cooperation with Western agencies, the Kremlin using the threat as an argument for defending Damascus.

Russia will watch returning jihadists closely

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Group Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Russian Soil ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group threat to Russia. Significance Russia is using arrests and violence to curb the growth of the Islamic State group (ISG), which has expanded in the North Caucasus at the expense of established domestic jihadist groups such as the Caucasus Emirate. The outflow of militants to the Middle East has contributed to relative calm in the North Caucasus, but as combatants return, some may be intent on violence. Russia's stated intention of defeating ISG on the ground in Syria could encourage reprisal attacks on Russian soil. Impacts Putin will cite domestic terrorist threats as justification for clampdowns on civil rights. The focus on security will be used to control dissent among the Crimean Tatars, who are unhappy with their new status as Russian citizens. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov will be even more indispensable as Moscow's most powerful ally in the North Caucasus.

Islamic State threat to Indonesia is changing

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State threat in Indonesia. Significance The attack against a police post and a Starbucks on Thamrin Road in Jakarta on January 14 has resulted in tighter counterterrorism measures, including arrests of suspects and a crackdown against media outlets promoting Islamic State group (ISG). More controversially, the government is considering harsher counterterrorism laws. Impacts The ISG threat in South-east Asia exists independently of a future wave of returning fighters. Greater powers for security forces will be unpopular as these agencies have previously been accused of human rights abuses. Security agencies are likely to be under-resourced.

Jihadi groups will compete for support in the Maghreb

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
International Action ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
State Group

Significance Instability in Libya has exacerbated an already fraught security environment in the Maghreb and the Sahel. Several militant groups co-exist in these parts, usually in competition with each other. The Islamic State group (ISG) has taken centre stage, but despite high profile attacks in Libya, it has failed to establish a foothold in other Maghreb countries. Impacts ISG encroachment in Libya will strengthen calls for international action to address Libya's crisis. Sporadic attacks are expected against security forces and government targets in Tunisia and Algeria. Government pressure and expanded counterterrorism operations could cause more widespread abuses of human rights. Fighters returning from jihad in Syria and Iraq could bolster the capabilities of local jihadist cells.

Russia is expanding its military options in Syria

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Training ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
State Group

Subject Russia's diversified military capacity in Syria. Significance Russian armed forces played an active role in the Syrian government's recapture of Palmyra in March, despite the partial withdrawal of Russian aircraft from Syria. As well as air strikes, months of Russian military training and arms deliveries enhanced the Syrian army's combat capacity, contributing to a rapid collapse of Islamic State group (ISG) resistance. The operation showed how Russia has widened the instruments available: it can scale conventional air strikes up or down, provide fire support from helicopters or artillery, and use these elements to compensate for deficiencies in the Syrian military, while supplying weaponry, training and coordination to local forces. Impacts Russian military support can ensure the Syrian regime's survival, but that will require a long-term presence. The recapture of Aleppo would constitute a near fatal blow to the Syrian rebel movement. The Russian military will learn lessons about weaponry and coordination from the Syrian operation. Elements of these lessons including control of proxy forces may be applied in future foreign interventions. The use of mercenaries, trialled in Syria, offers Moscow a useful and deniable instrument abroad.

North-south divide will ease Syria rebel tensions

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Euphrates Valley ◽  
State Group

Significance Syria's beleaguered mainstream rebel movement suffered numerous territorial losses in 2014 at the hands of Islamic State group (ISG) and the regime. Partly in response to these losses, a wider realignment of rebel alliances is now underway. Rebel groups are shifting away from overambitious schemes to unify under one national umbrella or on an ideological basis, and are moving towards more pragmatic local coalitions that are creating a de facto geographical 'north-south' divide among the rebels. Impacts Any international fightback against ISG requires the overcoming of US and Saudi objections to LF and other Islamist rebels. A nationwide Syrian rebel army will only materialise in the event of a US-led ground campaign against ISG. Recruiting tribal militias will probably prove a cheaper and more practical option. Saudi Arabia will prioritise the rebel scene in the south and Euphrates valley, leaving Qatar and Turkey to dominate the north. Dire military conditions will reinforce the drive for pragmatic cooperation among Damascus rebels.

Iran regional policy will bolster IRGC political power

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Significance Iran's armed forces have suffered a number of high-profile casualties in Syria and Iraq in recent weeks. General Mohammad Ali Allah-Dadi was killed in an Israeli airstrike inside Syria in January, while General Hamid Taqavi was killed by the Islamic State group (ISG) in Iraq in late December. Taqavi was the highest-ranking officer to be killed since the Iran-Iraq war ended in 1988. Both men were members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Iran's elite military force that conducts all of Tehran's military operations outside the country's borders. As rising instability threatens Iran's interests, the IRGC has stepped up its deployment across the region, raising the risk of military overstretch. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the IRGC is at loggerheads with the government of President Hassan Rouhani as nuclear negotiations approach their next deadline. Impacts IRGC dominance in Tehran policy-making will prevent any wider rapprochement with Washington. Resolution to the Syrian civil war will require regional political agreement involving Iran. Tensions with Saudi Arabia are at risk of further escalation. Demands on the defence budget will increase, raising fiscal strain on government.

Demobilisation will test Mali peace process

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
Joachim Gauck ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Prospects for peace in Mali Significance French Prime Minister Manuel Valls visited Bamako on February 18-19, just days after German President Joachim Gauck, to reiterate international support for Mali. Western governments are concerned about the threat from jihadist groups operating in the country's Saharan north and their potential for developing links with Islamic State group (ISG) in Libya. Despite the expanded terrorism threat, there have been some positive developments: the peace process in the north has taken major strides forward and decentralisation aimed to underpin peace has advanced. Impacts International partners will reinforce security efforts. To combat the risk of terrorism in Bamako, the authorities will encourage the public to report suspicious activity at community level. Regional elections will offer non-jihadist former rebel leaders a chance to assume a share of power locally.

Chechen leader narrows control as domestic risks rise

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses

Significance Reports of human rights abuses continue as Chechnya's leader Ramzan Kadyrov tries to maintain control through a period of greater uncertainty. He is appointing members of his family and wider clan to senior positions, narrowing access to power in response to a reduction in previously generous budget subsidies from Moscow. Impacts Kadyrov remain central to Moscow's strategy for stability and counter-insurgency across the wider North Caucasus. US sanctions against Kadyrov will only solidify Kremlin support for him. Kadyrov will try to craft a role as Russia's top Muslim leader, spokesman and emissary to Muslims abroad.

Islamic State on the wane in Russian North Caucasus

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Guerrilla Warfare ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Russian North ◽  
History Of

Subject The evolution of North Caucasian insurgency. Significance As the Islamic State (IS) group retreats in Iraq and Syria, the North Caucasus seems an obvious place to relocate, with its history of guerrilla warfare and an IS presence. So far that has not happened. Many Caucasian fighters have been killed in the Middle East while local IS groups have been hit hard by Russian security forces. Armed Islamist groups that existed before IS are seeing a resurgence and are the main source of current security threats. Impacts IS's weakness in the Caucasus will not prevent sporadic attacks on urban centres in European Russia. Militant attacks will be an irritant and a brake on investment but are unlikely to become a major regional threat. Moscow is trying to force better governance on Dagestan and may do so elsewhere.

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