Chechen leader narrows control as domestic risks rise

Significance Reports of human rights abuses continue as Chechnya's leader Ramzan Kadyrov tries to maintain control through a period of greater uncertainty. He is appointing members of his family and wider clan to senior positions, narrowing access to power in response to a reduction in previously generous budget subsidies from Moscow. Impacts Kadyrov remain central to Moscow's strategy for stability and counter-insurgency across the wider North Caucasus. US sanctions against Kadyrov will only solidify Kremlin support for him. Kadyrov will try to craft a role as Russia's top Muslim leader, spokesman and emissary to Muslims abroad.

Subject Kadyrov's attacks on the Russian opposition. Significance After making a series of open threats against Russian opposition figures, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov recently claimed to have sent special forces to Syria to spy on Islamic State group (ISG) and guide Russian air strikes. Chechnya has unique status among Russia's regions and republics. In return for holding down the security situation, Kadyrov controls armed forces not subordinated to Moscow, introduces rules that would be unlawful elsewhere and enjoys impunity for numerous human rights abuses attributed to his men. Impacts Kadyrov will try to build a reputation as zealous defender of Russia against domestic and foreign enemies. While portraying himself as Moscow's indispensable ally in the North Caucasus, Kadyrov will not seek alliances with neighbouring regions. Further outspoken comments will alarm national and regional elites in Russia, but will not bring censure from Putin.


Significance Large demonstrations on May 28 resulted in several deaths in Cali; President Ivan Duque deployed troops there the next day. Although that appears, temporarily, to have restored some order, talks between the government and protest leaders have stalled. Impacts The government still plans fiscal reform of some kind, but any proposals now risk inflaming unrest. Prolonged accusations of human rights abuses and impunity could damage Colombia’s international reputation. Fear of socialism and Venezuela’s struggles offer the government a powerful electoral weapon against the left.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-414
Author(s):  
Helen Jane Liebling ◽  
Hazel Rose Barrett ◽  
Lillian Artz

Purpose This British Academy/Leverhulme-funded research (Grant number: SG170394) investigated the experiences and impact of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) and torture on South Sudanese refugees’ health and rights and the responses of health and justice services in Northern Uganda. Design/methodology/approach It involved thematic analysis of the narratives of 20 men and 41 women refugees’ survivors of SGBV and torture; this included their experiences in South Sudan, their journeys to Uganda and experiences in refugee settlements. In total, 37 key stakeholders including health and justice providers, police, non-government and government organisations were also interviewed regarding their experiences of providing services to refugees. Findings All refugees had survived human rights abuses carried out in South Sudan, on route to Uganda and within Uganda. Incidents of violence, SGBV, torture and other human rights abuses declined significantly for men in Uganda, but women reported SGBV incidents. The research demonstrates linkages between the physical, psychological, social/cultural and justice/human rights impact on women and men refugees, which amplified the impact of their experiences. There was limited screening, physical and psychological health and support services; including livelihoods and education. Refugees remained concerned about violence and SGBV in the refugee settlements. While they all knew of the reporting system for such incidents, they questioned the effectiveness of the process. For this reason, women opted for family reconciliation rather than reporting domestic violence or SGBV to the authorities. Men found it hard to report incidences due to high levels of stigma and shame. Research limitations/implications Refugees largely fled South Sudan to escape human rights abuses including, persecution, SGBV and torture. Their experiences resulted in physical, psychological, social-cultural and justice effects that received limited responses by health and justice services. An integrated approach to meeting refugees’ needs is required. Practical implications The authors make recommendations for integrated gender sensitive service provision for refugees including more systematic screening, assessment and treatment of SGBV and torture physical and emotional injuries combined with implementation of livelihoods and social enterprises. Social implications The research demonstrates that stigma and shame, particularly for male refugee survivors of SGBV and torture, impacts on ability to report these incidents and seek treatment. Increasing gender sensitivity of services to these issues, alongside provision of medical treatment for injuries, alongside improved informal justice processes, may assist to counteract shame and increase disclosure. Originality/value There is currently a lack of empirical investigation of this subject area, therefore this research makes a contribution to the subject of understanding refugees’ experiences of SGBV and torture, as well as their perceptions of service provision and response. This subject is strategically important due to the pressing need to develop integrated, gendered and culturally sensitive services that listen to the voices and draw on the expertise of refugees themselves while using their skills to inform improvements in service responses and policy.


Significance Protests over state brutality, corruption and rising inequality have become more frequent in recent years and increased in intensity since the oil price has dropped. Impacts Efforts to clamp down on unpopular illegal immigration will have limited success due to Angola's porous borders. Military embarrassments in West Africa will dent appetite for foreign military involvement, releasing capacity for domestic security. Activities in Cabinda could exacerbate tensions with neighbours, where military forces cross the border in pursuit of Congolese miners. Western reports on human rights abuses will have little effect on the regime, which prioritises ties with Russia, China and Brazil.


Subject Uighur jihadis. Significance Human rights abuses in Xinjiang have driven thousands of Uighurs overseas, where a small number have joined militant groups. Historically, China has proved able to contain the threat by relying on assistance from cooperative neighbours, such as Pakistan. It is now being forced to consider a more direct role. Impacts Beijing looks certain to become more active in law enforcement cooperation, intelligence sharing and use of private security firms. China is reluctant to deploy troops overseas, but this cannot be ruled out if there is a major terrorist attack. Human rights abuses in Xinjiang will complicate China’s efforts to cooperate with other countries on counterterrorism. Little can be done to prevent small, crude attacks on Chinese assets elsewhere by tiny groups of people.


Significance With the country mired in a deepening economic crisis and the ruling party engaging in debilitating succession struggles, opposition parties are debating whether they can exploit the government's fiscal woes to contest forthcoming by-elections and national polls or to boycott elections in part or altogether. Impacts A fall armyworm outbreak is likely to devastate crops nationwide, prompting a food security crisis. The government will likely resist pressure from international financial institutions to curb public expenditure ahead of the 2018 elections. Increased human rights abuses by the authorities would prompt international condemnation and possible resumption of broader EU sanctions.


Subject US relations with Central Asia. Significance US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Central Asia in early November, in an effort to boost Washington's influence in a region that is increasingly dominated by Russia and also China. Central Asian states worry that the region has declined in importance for the United States, owing to Washington's overall drawdown of forces in Afghanistan. Impacts Over-reliance on remittances will pose major risk to Central Asian economies. Central Asian states will continue to try and extract concessions from United States, Russia and China. Washington will diminish its public criticism of human rights abuses in Central Asia but maintain pressure in private.


Significance Large-scale emigrations of Eritreans factor into Asmara's foreign relations. Eritrean migration is more than a humanitarian concern; it is shaping relationships with the EU and neighbouring states. Impacts Anti-migration funding may strengthen Eritrean-Sudanese relations but increase tensions with Ethiopia. Additional reports of human rights abuses could deter European support, but immigration concerns may take precedence. Ethiopia's election to the UN Security Council will restrict any progress Asmara hopes to make within the UN.


Significance US policymakers feel there is sufficient support for the United States elsewhere in the Philippine government and population to erode Duterte's threats to unravel the alliance. Nonetheless, Washington is considering alternative South-east Asian partners. Impacts Japan's role as an interlocutor between Manila and Washington on security issues could grow. Duterte might meet outgoing President Barack Obama in Peru at the November 19-20 APEC meeting. However, should this occur, it is unlikely to improve Philippine-US ties much if at all. Rumours of human rights abuses in the Philippines will anger US members of Congress, further deteriorating ties.


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