Demobilisation will test Mali peace process

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
Joachim Gauck ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Prospects for peace in Mali Significance French Prime Minister Manuel Valls visited Bamako on February 18-19, just days after German President Joachim Gauck, to reiterate international support for Mali. Western governments are concerned about the threat from jihadist groups operating in the country's Saharan north and their potential for developing links with Islamic State group (ISG) in Libya. Despite the expanded terrorism threat, there have been some positive developments: the peace process in the north has taken major strides forward and decentralisation aimed to underpin peace has advanced. Impacts International partners will reinforce security efforts. To combat the risk of terrorism in Bamako, the authorities will encourage the public to report suspicious activity at community level. Regional elections will offer non-jihadist former rebel leaders a chance to assume a share of power locally.

Syria action risks growing terrorism threat in Russia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Terrorism risks to Russia. Significance The Islamic State group (ISG) called for jihad against Russia and the United States on October 13. ISG regards Moscow and Washington as fighting a 'crusader war' against Muslims. Concern in Russia is growing that President Vladimir Putin's Syrian intervention will increase the terrorism threat inside the country. Impacts Exodus of radicals to fight with ISG has improved the security situation in the North Caucasus but many may seek to return to attack Russia. Chechen leader Kadyrov's power will grow if North Caucasus terrorism increases, as Moscow will need him to help restore order. Russia will push for closer security cooperation with Western agencies, the Kremlin using the threat as an argument for defending Damascus.

Rise of Shia militias will reshape Iraqi politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Subject The rise of Iraq's Shia militias. Significance Shia militias, known as Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs), are the most capable offensive forces at the federal government's disposal in its fight against Islamic State group (ISG). Yet Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's cabinet only exercises limited control over these forces, many of which receive backing from Iran. While Iraq's battle against ISG is progressing steadily, the emergence of these powerful Shia militias could represent a larger medium-term challenge to state stability. Impacts Shia militias will probably be less effective in Sunni-only areas. Iraq boasts insufficient offensive forces to attack Mosul in the first half of 2015. The National Guard initiative will take months to be ratified in parliament. Politics in the oil-rich south will be complicated by a power struggle between Shia politicians and militia leaders.

Turkey's Kurds will be angry if HDP is not re-elected

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Guerrilla Warfare ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Religious Elements

Significance The process looks in danger. Serious local conflicts in south-eastern Turkey are straining tensions between Kurds and the government, even though guerrilla warfare has not resumed. Kurdish self-confidence is rising because of its fighters' success in expelling Islamic State group (ISG) from Kobani. However, dialogue between the government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan continues, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu seems more sensitive to Kurdish aspirations than his predecessors. Impacts Ocalan's leadership of the PKK is unshakable, but his ability to persuade his followers to avoid clashes on the streets is weakening. The conflict between the Kurds and Islamists inside Turkey will grow. Public opinion, including conservative religious elements, will block significant concessions to the Kurds, limiting the government's scope. The Kurds are emerging as a key regional opponent of Islamist politics.

Social networks could counter lone-actor terrorism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Far Right ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Group

Subject Lone-actor terrorist motivations. Significance Recent lone-actor terrorist attacks in Orlando, Nice, Munich and elsewhere have made this threat salient for the public and policymakers alike. The number of lone-actor attacks has almost trebled since 1990 -- from a base rate of 5-6 per year, according to recent research. Yet the authorities find these types of attacks difficult to detect and disrupt ahead of time. Impacts Lone-actor attacks are likely to recur in the West while authorities struggle to respond. Islamic State group (ISG)-inspired lone-actor attacks may incentivise far-right lone actors to respond violently and vice-versa. The rise of encrypted messaging services and the dark net will fuel the debate around policing this problem without curbing free speech.

North-south divide will ease Syria rebel tensions

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Euphrates Valley ◽  
State Group

Significance Syria's beleaguered mainstream rebel movement suffered numerous territorial losses in 2014 at the hands of Islamic State group (ISG) and the regime. Partly in response to these losses, a wider realignment of rebel alliances is now underway. Rebel groups are shifting away from overambitious schemes to unify under one national umbrella or on an ideological basis, and are moving towards more pragmatic local coalitions that are creating a de facto geographical 'north-south' divide among the rebels. Impacts Any international fightback against ISG requires the overcoming of US and Saudi objections to LF and other Islamist rebels. A nationwide Syrian rebel army will only materialise in the event of a US-led ground campaign against ISG. Recruiting tribal militias will probably prove a cheaper and more practical option. Saudi Arabia will prioritise the rebel scene in the south and Euphrates valley, leaving Qatar and Turkey to dominate the north. Dire military conditions will reinforce the drive for pragmatic cooperation among Damascus rebels.

Myanmar peace effort could falter after March

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Military

Subject Prospects for the peace process with ethnic groups under the incoming National League for Democracy government. Significance Peace negotiations between the government, ethnic armed groups (EAGs) and the military (Tatmadaw) were discussed when National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi met Tatmadaw chief Min Aung Hlaing on January 25. This followed the Union Peace Conference (UPC) round held oon January 12-16, which also involved outgoing President Thein Sein, and which marked Suu Kyi's official debut in the peace process. Impacts Progressing peace in Rakhine State could help Myanmar reduce Islamic State group threats. To protect its interests, the military could stymie peace talks by restarting conflict in ethnic areas. The NLD may soften its stance on federalism to keep the military aboard, but likely thus alienating ethnic groups.

Iraq's Abadi may consolidate power in reform battle

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Political ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
State Group ◽  
Government Reforms

Subject Government reforms. Significance Although some of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's reform programme is purely aspirational and unlikely to be implemented, the measures already taken constitute an unprecedented downsizing of Iraqi government in the post-2003 era. The reforms were well received initially by the political parties, partly due to support from the Shia clergy. However, increasingly, critical voices are making themselves heard, not least from hardliners within Abadi's own Shia coalition. Impacts Failure of Abadi's reform programme could increase political instability in Baghdad, harming efforts to defeat Islamic State group (ISG). Reforms may damage ties with Tehran, with Iran fearing that Abadi is using the process to develop stronger autonomy from it. If the reforms succeed, this may increase Sunni Arab confidence in Abadi as a potential buffer against pro-Iranian forces. Impact on government efficiency and the economy will be limited given other major challenges, notably low oil prices.

Russia will watch returning jihadists closely

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Group Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Russian Soil ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group threat to Russia. Significance Russia is using arrests and violence to curb the growth of the Islamic State group (ISG), which has expanded in the North Caucasus at the expense of established domestic jihadist groups such as the Caucasus Emirate. The outflow of militants to the Middle East has contributed to relative calm in the North Caucasus, but as combatants return, some may be intent on violence. Russia's stated intention of defeating ISG on the ground in Syria could encourage reprisal attacks on Russian soil. Impacts Putin will cite domestic terrorist threats as justification for clampdowns on civil rights. The focus on security will be used to control dissent among the Crimean Tatars, who are unhappy with their new status as Russian citizens. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov will be even more indispensable as Moscow's most powerful ally in the North Caucasus.

Malaysian domestic terrorism threat will increase

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Personnel ◽  
Domestic Terrorism ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Inspector General ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Suicide Bombers ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Security Concern

Subject Outlook for Islamic State group-related terrorism in Malaysia. Significance The Islamic State group (ISG) threat is a growing Malaysian security concern. In May, police warned of domestically planned and executed ISG attacks in Malaysia; on July 9, the police's inspector general reportedly expressed concern over attack orders originating from ISG in the Middle East directed overseas. Currently, at least 80 Malaysians are believed to have joined ISG in Syria and Iraq, of whom eleven, including six suicide bombers, have died. As of April, police reportedly suspected some 70 Malaysian military personnel of having ISG connections. Impacts The government needs to reassess its use of Islam for political goals, and support for Salafi doctrine. It will face increased pressure to strengthen its online counterterrorism presence. Meanwhile, social media will be key to youth radicalisation and terror recruitment.

Chechen leader campaigns for funds and re-election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Special Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
The North ◽  
State Group ◽  
Unique Status

Subject Kadyrov's attacks on the Russian opposition. Significance After making a series of open threats against Russian opposition figures, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov recently claimed to have sent special forces to Syria to spy on Islamic State group (ISG) and guide Russian air strikes. Chechnya has unique status among Russia's regions and republics. In return for holding down the security situation, Kadyrov controls armed forces not subordinated to Moscow, introduces rules that would be unlawful elsewhere and enjoys impunity for numerous human rights abuses attributed to his men. Impacts Kadyrov will try to build a reputation as zealous defender of Russia against domestic and foreign enemies. While portraying himself as Moscow's indispensable ally in the North Caucasus, Kadyrov will not seek alliances with neighbouring regions. Further outspoken comments will alarm national and regional elites in Russia, but will not bring censure from Putin.

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