Ukrainian cabinet faces tough economic conditions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Competing Demands ◽  
Public Approval ◽  
The Imf

Subject The economic challenges facing the Ukrainian government. Significance Ukraine's new prime minister, Volodymyr Groisman, must manage competing demands, domestic and external. External lenders, principally the IMF, are pressing him to carry out overdue reforms that are likely to bring pain to the average Ukrainian hoping for swift improvements in living standards. As well as the ongoing conflict in the east, structural problems are constraining growth. Impacts A resumption in IMF payments will help the balance of payments and work towards currency stability. Slow and patchy recovery is unlikely to translate into higher wages and incomes. The Groisman government is unlikely to win public approval if conditions improve. Its survival will be at risk if there is no discernable change for the better.

Kazakh leader ponders future but tackles urgent tasks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Radical Islam ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Subject Political changes in Kazakhstan. Significance President Nursultan Nazarbayev has carried out the largest government reshuffle in two years, promoting Deputy Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev to head the cabinet and placing the outgoing prime minister, Karim Massimov, in charge of the security ministry. Nazarbayev's aims are twofold: to bring in fresh faces to tackle grave economic challenges, and to ensure his security services are able to clamp down on a rising terrorism problem. Impacts The government's top priorities will be to avert protests driven by economic conditions and deal with militant threats. Massimov's security measures will be complemented by the religious affairs ministry's scrutiny of radical Islam. Nazarbayev will seek to manage the succession to preserve his political legacy and his family's interests.

India will push back on China’s influence in Nepal

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Sphere Of Influence ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
India And China

Subject Chinese and Indian interest in Nepal. Significance China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is dominating Nepal’s agenda. Until a decade ago, Nepal was clearly within India’s sphere of influence. Nepali Prime Minister KP Oli in April made a three-day state visit to Delhi and in June made a six-day state visit to Beijing. Impacts The governing Nepal Communist Party will be at risk of a split, especially during negotiations over a new chair in two years’ time. Campaigning in nearby Bhutan’s elections later this year is likely to be dominated by debate over the country's ties with India and China. India and China may seek mutual easing of trade barriers as part of efforts to improve bilateral economic ties.

Singapore's Lee will call early poll despite risks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Significance Bringing the poll forward could be risky for Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's People's Action Party (PAP), as it faces a new opposition party and worsening economic conditions. Impacts Tan Cheng Bock will at the next election attempt to unite the opposition behind his Progress Singapore Party. Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat will likely succeed as prime minister when Lee eventually leaves the post. Singapore's economy is unlikely to benefit from any large-scale redirecting of investment from Hong Kong, despite the protests there.

Expansionary Jordanian budget will contain discontent

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Positive Signal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Public Scrutiny ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance That comes as the country’s own parliament prepares to vote on the 2020 fiscal bill before the end of the year. Amman is currently in the last year of a 723-million-dollar IMF credit line, which required it to cut debt levels. The budget is intended to stimulate growth and stave off further protests, while simultaneously persuading the IMF to extend its credit line for another three years during upcoming talks in January. Impacts There will be closer cooperation between the government and parliament over managing the economy. Signs of unrest and public discontent over economic reforms will ease, notably if a tax evasion crackdown features on social media. Razzaz will survive another year as prime minister, having already served 18 months, sending a positive signal to the IMF and investors. King Abdullah and Queen Rania will come under less public scrutiny and distance themselves further from day-to-day politics.

Leadership questions will distract Canada's opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Policy ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
International Negotiations ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Victory

Significance Canada's main opposition parties -- the Conservatives and the NDP -- are entering a period of reconstruction and reinvention in the wake of October's election victory by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party, with implications for the government's political room for manoeuvre. Impacts Federal-provincial gridlock and economic concerns from the oil downturn will hinder Canadian climate policy-making. Should poor economic conditions persist despite the government's stimulus programme, the Conservatives could strengthen as a result. National-level scepticism of free trade in many countries will sap momentum in international negotiations, such as for TTIP.

Kazakhstan poll will be about stability not succession

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Assembly

Significance The vote comes amid an unprecedented economic downturn caused by a combination of factors: low oil prices, recession in Russia and slowdown in China. President Nursultan Nazarbayev called early elections in January in a bid to maintain social stability until oil prices stabilise or increase. His personal credibility is less at risk than that of government members directly in charge of the economy, and one way of deflecting criticism would be to get the new parliament to dismiss Prime Minister Karim Massimov. Impacts The Majilis will play a marginal role in decision-making, and despite its apparent dominance, Nur Otan will have little say. The few remaining opposition groups will be subjected to harassment and prosecution to prevent them mobilising public support. Nur Otan will win local assembly elections taking place simultaneously.

New Ethiopian cabinet gears up for next economic plan

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Middle Income Country ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Enterprises

Subject Ethiopia's new government line-up. Significance Following his re-election for a five-year term in early October, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced a cabinet reshuffle. The changes come amid final preparations for the second phase of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), an ambitious development strategy that seeks to turn Ethiopia into a middle-income country by 2025. Impacts Ethiopia is likely to issue a new euro-bond to mobilise additional funds for GTP II. Sovereign debt levels are manageable, but off-budget loans to state enterprises may cause future distress. Low oil prices are beneficial for managing balance-of-payments and foreign-exchange strains.

Ukraine still wants IMF funds but reforms will stall

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Currency Devaluation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Imf

Significance Officials in Kyiv are still hopeful of receiving a long-delayed fifth IMF loan tranche under a 17.5-billion-dollar Extended Finance Facility (EFF) programme as early as May. This follows a period in late 2017 when government resolve to stay with the IMF and submit to its onerous and unpopular conditionality seemed to be waning. Impacts An absence of IMF funding this year will exacerbate pressures on the balance of payments and lead to currency devaluation. Multilateral financing remains the only effective way of forcing systemic reforms. A resumption in IMF lending, if it happens, should improve Ukraine's external credit ratings.

Prospects for Pakistan in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Welfare State ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Imf

Subject Prospects for Pakistan in 2019. Significance By early 2019, Islamabad will likely have negotiated a loan from the IMF to supplement financial assistance from Riyadh and Beijing. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Imran Khan's government, which has promised to create an 'Islamic welfare state', is coming under increasing pressure from hard-line Islamists over the issue of blasphemy.

IMF bailout will roil Pakistan’s economic agenda

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Welfare Provision ◽  
Financial Action Task Force ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Action Task ◽  
The Imf

Subject Likely consequences of Pakistan's imminent IMF bailout. Significance Pakistan appears on the brink of finalising a loan programme with the IMF, less than three years after the end of the last one, to help deal with a macroeconomic crisis. Separately, Prime Minister Imran Khan has made promises about welfare provision and job creation and his government last month launched a four-year plan to bolster economic growth. Impacts Pakistan’s access to international markets will depend on extrication from a Financial Action Task Force ‘grey list’ as much as an IMF loan. Hiking energy tariffs to increase revenue, in line with IMF conditionality, will probably incite anti-government protests. Islamabad will draw closer politically and economically to Riyadh.

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