Prospects for Pakistan in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Welfare State ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Imf

Subject Prospects for Pakistan in 2019. Significance By early 2019, Islamabad will likely have negotiated a loan from the IMF to supplement financial assistance from Riyadh and Beijing. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Imran Khan's government, which has promised to create an 'Islamic welfare state', is coming under increasing pressure from hard-line Islamists over the issue of blasphemy.

Confrontation with Iraq’s militias may come to a head

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Double Hit ◽  
Will Force

Significance This followed five rocket attacks on the US-led coalition in the last two weeks, which killed two US and one UK citizen. It also came two days after Kurdish President Barham Salih named Adnan al-Zurfi, a US-linked Shia nationalist politician, as the new prime minister-designate. Impacts Washington may hold back its response to attacks in order to further Zurfi’s ratification. A massive double hit from low oil prices and COVID-19 will force Iraq to seek more international aid. A Zurfi government could improve Iraq’s chances of gaining Western and Gulf financial assistance.

Expansionary Jordanian budget will contain discontent

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Positive Signal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Public Scrutiny ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance That comes as the country’s own parliament prepares to vote on the 2020 fiscal bill before the end of the year. Amman is currently in the last year of a 723-million-dollar IMF credit line, which required it to cut debt levels. The budget is intended to stimulate growth and stave off further protests, while simultaneously persuading the IMF to extend its credit line for another three years during upcoming talks in January. Impacts There will be closer cooperation between the government and parliament over managing the economy. Signs of unrest and public discontent over economic reforms will ease, notably if a tax evasion crackdown features on social media. Razzaz will survive another year as prime minister, having already served 18 months, sending a positive signal to the IMF and investors. King Abdullah and Queen Rania will come under less public scrutiny and distance themselves further from day-to-day politics.

Ukrainian cabinet faces tough economic conditions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Competing Demands ◽  
Public Approval ◽  
The Imf

Subject The economic challenges facing the Ukrainian government. Significance Ukraine's new prime minister, Volodymyr Groisman, must manage competing demands, domestic and external. External lenders, principally the IMF, are pressing him to carry out overdue reforms that are likely to bring pain to the average Ukrainian hoping for swift improvements in living standards. As well as the ongoing conflict in the east, structural problems are constraining growth. Impacts A resumption in IMF payments will help the balance of payments and work towards currency stability. Slow and patchy recovery is unlikely to translate into higher wages and incomes. The Groisman government is unlikely to win public approval if conditions improve. Its survival will be at risk if there is no discernable change for the better.

IMF bailout will roil Pakistan’s economic agenda

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Welfare Provision ◽  
Financial Action Task Force ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Action Task ◽  
The Imf

Subject Likely consequences of Pakistan's imminent IMF bailout. Significance Pakistan appears on the brink of finalising a loan programme with the IMF, less than three years after the end of the last one, to help deal with a macroeconomic crisis. Separately, Prime Minister Imran Khan has made promises about welfare provision and job creation and his government last month launched a four-year plan to bolster economic growth. Impacts Pakistan’s access to international markets will depend on extrication from a Financial Action Task Force ‘grey list’ as much as an IMF loan. Hiking energy tariffs to increase revenue, in line with IMF conditionality, will probably incite anti-government protests. Islamabad will draw closer politically and economically to Riyadh.

Ukraine president gains from economic data and policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary Stability ◽  
Financial Restraint ◽  
President Elect ◽  
The Government ◽  
Constructive Engagement ◽  
The Imf

Significance The decision to reduce gas prices -- a gift to President-elect Volodymyr Zelensky, as it chimes with the anti-austerity messaging of his election campaign -- and not to raise them as the IMF wants, was officially announced on April 24. However, it was outlined by Prime Minister Volodymyr Groisman in March, before the election. Zelensky inherits an economy in recovery, although last year's growth rate was mostly due to maize, sunflower seed and little else. He has not yet articulated an economic programme, but his team is promising constructive engagement with the IMF, soothing concerns about anti-austerity populism. Impacts The disruption of supply chains and maritime freight mean Ukraine's economy will take years to return to 2013 levels. IMF support for monetary and financial restraint will encourage reformers in Moldova and other post-Soviet states to craft similar policies. With the advantage of monetary stability, the government is likely to use Eurobonds to restructure and service its foreign debt.

Pakistan opposition will push back on crackdown

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Internal Strain ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Subject Pakistan government's crackdown on the opposition. Significance The anti-corruption National Accountability Bureau (NAB) last week arrested former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, who denies the charges against him. In recent weeks, the NAB has arrested several opposition politicians. Impacts The opposition will intensify its criticisms of the government's austerity measures, introduced in line with the IMF bailout. The government will likely see greater internal strain as it comes under growing pressure. The politically powerful military may try to exert more overt control over policy.

Moldovan government will prioritise Western assistance

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Governance System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance The government is headed by Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita, a leading PAS figure and former finance minister. This completes the creation of a strong functioning governance system under President Maia Sandu and her PAS allies. Impacts The budget deficit will encourage the government to accept conditions set by the IMF and EU. Unprecedented political synergies should foster swift, more cohesive reforms. A comprehensive campaign against corruption will be disruptive for the public sector. Finding competent, uncorrupt people to take senior positions and staff institutions will be a challenge.

Oligarchic influence will slow Ukraine's progress

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
The Political ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Assets ◽  
The Imf ◽  
Sense Of Urgency

Subject Government vulnerability to powerful commercial interests. Significance Despite a change of prime minister in April, governance in Ukraine remains the preserve of a circle around President Petro Poroshenko. These insiders show little sense of urgency on economic reforms or other matters of public concern including the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and maintain strong links with business 'oligarchs' who own much of the country's wealth and economic assets. Oligarchic funds and media shape the political process, and the political establishment owes them too much to declare war on them. Impacts Moscow will seek ways of infiltrating mainstream politics via oligarchic contacts. When the IMF meets in July, will likely conclude that Ukraine has done enough to merit a tranche payment. Prosecutors have a long way to go to show that corruption investigations do not target only government opponents.

Iraqi budget squeeze threatens Kurdish chaos

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Post War ◽  
The Imf

Significance Since the KRI lost control of several oil fields following the failed independence referendum on September 25, its already-tight fiscal situation has worsened sharply. Iraq’s draft 2018 federal budget, sent to parliament on November 29, offers little remedy. It reduces the region’s allocation of funds, making it even more difficult for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to agree a deal with Baghdad that would allow new inflows. Impacts A viable fiscal deal between Baghdad and the KRG would improve the investment climate in the region. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s hopes of Kurdish and Sunni support after May elections could influence his position on the budget debate. A delay in passing the budget could slow down the distribution of loans from the IMF. Even if budget allocations are increased, post-war reconstruction is likely to be slow and patchy.

IMF bailout would force Pakistan’s Khan to compromise

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Welfare State ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government

Subject Pakistan's likely need for an IMF bailout. Significance Prime Minister Imran Khan, sworn in earlier this month, came to power promising to create an ‘Islamic welfare state’. In the fiscal year ending June 2018, the current account deficit was nearly 6% of GDP and the budget deficit nearly 7% of GDP. Pakistan in September 2016 completed a three-year Extended Fund Facility programme with the IMF worth some 6.6 billion dollars, and in the last month has availed of loans worth 2.0 billion dollars from China and 4.0 billion dollars from Saudi Arabia. Impacts The US government will issue further warnings against an IMF bailout being used to pay off Pakistan’s debt to China. The revival of ties between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia may hinder Islamabad’s efforts to improve ties with Tehran. Khan’s governing coalition will be relatively stable, fewer constituent parties reducing the risk of splits, and the opposition divided.

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