Turkey's counterterrorism policy risks more violence

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Northern Iraq ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Us ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
State Group ◽  
Counterterrorism Policy

Significance The meeting follows Turkey's launch of military strikes on July 24 against Islamic State group (ISG) in northern Syria and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. Although Ankara says it is pursuing a broader strategy against terrorism, it has two asymmetrical goals. Against ISG, its measures remain largely defensive in nature, including driving ISG from the border and reducing the threat of blowback inside Turkey. Against the PKK, they appear more ambitious and appear designed to crush the organisation and use force rather than dialogue to resolve the demands of Turkey's Kurds for greater cultural and political rights. Impacts The US-led coalition may move the main platform for its air campaign in Syria and Iraq to Turkey, reducing flying times to targets. Ankara is likely to stop short of deploying ground troops in Syria. ISG may retaliate inside Turkey, particularly against its tourism sector. AKP may abandon coalition negotiations and go for the nationalist vote to recover its majority in early elections, possibly in November. Crackdown on ISG activities inside Turkey could weaken the group in Syria.

Mosul will test US efforts to rebuild Iraqi army

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
And Training

Subject US Iraqi Train and Equip Fund. Significance The US Department of Defense has requested an additional 630 million dollars for the Iraqi Train and Equip Fund (ITEF) in the 2016-17 fiscal year. This fund, hurriedly brought into existence in the summer of 2014, was developed to provide assistance and training to the Iraqi army in the wake of its disastrous performance against Islamic State group (ISG) forces. Forces trained under the ITEF will be a key component of the planned offensive to retake the ISG stronghold of Mosul later this year. Impacts The programme is unlikely to continue once Mosul has been retaken -- although other funding streams will continue. Its success would strengthen the Iraqi army, thereby empowering central government against pro-Iran, hardline militias. Its failure would strengthen these militias and increase the prospects of a semi-permanent fragmentation of the Iraqi state.

Russian tourists return to Turkey as others stay away

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Media Freedom ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Negative Publicity ◽  
State Group

Significance An informal rapprochement between Turkey and Russia has lifted Moscow's ban on holidays in Turkey, implemented after Turkish jets downed a Russian warplane last November. However, an attack on Istanbul's main airport less than a day after the Russian deal was announced left 45 dead and has been blamed on Islamic State group (ISG). The third attack targeting tourists this year, it has demonstrated that Turkey faces an uphill struggle both in dealing with Islamist extremism, and in convincing foreigners that it is safe to visit. Impacts Russian tourists are rushing to book holidays, but the summer total will be much lower than the 700,000 visitor average of previous years. Unless a new peace initiative with Kurdish separatists is launched, they could focus attacks on the tourism sector. Restrictions on media freedom will make it harder to combat negative publicity about Turkey.

US pressure weakens Syria-based Khorasan Group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Group A ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.

Guerrillas could prompt Turkish state of emergency

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Population ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
Turkish State ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
State Group

Significance They were responding to increasingly serious attacks on Turkish soldiers and police by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas in eastern Turkey. With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowing fierce retribution, and conflicts between the authorities and the local population growing in the Kurdish-dominated south-east, the country is braced for full-scale war, just as it prepares for fresh parliamentary elections on November 1. Impacts Business and the economy face a sharp downturn with the lira growing steadily weaker. The conflict with the Kurds will intensify and Kurdish demands for full-scale independence will increase. The government will not seek a compromise with the Kurds and will be prepared to allocate any resources needed for a military solution. A more authoritarian style of government is likely to emerge after November. Turkey looks increasingly vulnerable to serious Islamic State group (ISG) attacks in urban centres, though probably not before the election.

Geopolitical tensions will add to UAE cyber threats

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Home Depot ◽  
Virus Attack ◽  
State Group ◽  
Cyber Conflict

Subject The threats and capabilities of UAE in cyber security. Significance Concerns over cyber security are mounting with high-profile commercial breaches on companies such as TV5 Monde, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Target and Home Depot, and disclosures on nation-state capabilities and actions, such as the Stuxnet attack on Iranian centrifuges at Natanz in 2010 and the Shamoon virus attack on Saudi Aramco in 2012. The combination of rising cyber crime and geopolitical cyber conflict, not least that emanating from the Islamic State group (ISG), alarms the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as it seeks to enhance its position as a financial and logistics hub. Impacts Cyber-savvy ISG sympathisers are likely to conduct further cyber attacks to avenge the US-led air campaign against ISG. ISG-sympathetic insiders may be an even higher threat to businesses and governments. Managed Security Services Providers (MSSP) will be the primary beneficiary of moves to increase cyber security.

Prospects for Turkey to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
The Face ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
State Group

Subject Prospects for Turkey to end-2016. Significance The interaction between four dynamics may increase political and social fragility: introducing an executive presidency; escalating conflict with Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants; prosecutions of the pro-Kurdish, left-leaning Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP); and efforts to defeat Islamic State group (ISG). Meanwhile, in the face of largely adverse external conditions and weak investor confidence, consumer spending has underpinned economic growth.

Erdogan may find events in Turkey escaping his control

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Area ◽  
Military Conflicts ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Eu

Subject Erdogan's vision for Turkey. Significance Since the July attempted coup, the government has purged 81,000 real or imagined opponents. Yet it has not been in turmoil, as is frequently claimed, even though President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's refusal to compromise on any front has locked Turkey into simultaneous expensive military conflicts, including participation in the civil war in Syria, just after 3,000 serving officers have been purged and just under 40% of generals and admirals either sacked or arrested. Impacts Erdogan's supremacy faces no foreseeable internal challengers or pressures to make policy changes. Turkey's international isolation will worsen, especially the US rift; the EU will keep its soft line while Russia will be friendly. The defeat of Islamic State group and recapture of Mosul will exacerbate US-Turkish tensions. Reliance on Russian energy imports may grow and new areas of cooperation be announced. Turkey's ambitious new health system may be an early economic area to run into financing problems.

Central Asia can manage Islamic State risks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Security Treaty ◽  
Civil And Political Rights ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group's following in Central Asia. Significance Over the last 18 months, officials in Central Asia have frequently cited the recruitment of citizens by Islamic State group (ISG) as a major threat to national security. Governments fear that some of those who return will build networks and launch jihadist attacks. Their responses target suspected sympathisers and returning fighters but also alienate the broader community of devout but not extremist Muslims. Impacts Civil and political rights will be curbed as part of counter-terrorism programmes. Tajikistan and other states will look for Russian assurances including through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. China will strengthen security ties although there is little Uighur activism in Central Asia.

Islamic State group has reinvigorated global jihadism

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The past year witnessed further jihadi gains amid the political turmoil in the Middle East that has followed the Arab uprisings -- most significantly the Islamic State Group (ISG)'s conquest of Sunni provinces Iraq in June and proclamation of a caliphate. However, the advance is not even across the board; the threat remains centred on regional targets, more than those in the West. More spillover from a metastasising jihadism in the Middle East is to be expected, including sporadic high-profile attacks in the West. Impacts The international reputation of Syria's Assad regime will gradually improve as the West remains focused on the threat of the ISG. Authoritarian regimes will exploit the jihadist threat to justify internal security crackdowns and delay democratic reforms. US-Iranian collaboration against ISG will reinforce the perception of an anti-Sunni conspiracy -- a key feature of jihadi propaganda. The US shale oil revolution will continue to offset disruption to oil supplies by the ISG. Tourism in affected countries, particularly Egypt, will continue to suffer.

Sectarianism raises jihadist blowback threat in Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lone Wolf ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Security Relationship ◽  
State Group

Subject 'Islamic State' blowback risk in Gulf Significance A recent spate of attacks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states suggest that the threat posed to them by the Islamic State group (ISG) arises primarily from 'lone wolf' operations. However, the GCC states face a deeper challenge both internally from networks of ISG cells, and externally from the flow of Gulf nationals to ISG battlefronts in Iraq and Syria. With the Gulf states leading the region in partnering with the United States in the air campaign against ISG, officials must balance this close security relationship with the threat of backlash from domestic supporters of ISG. Impacts GCC states will seek to avoid being drawn directly into any military escalation against ISG in Iraq and Syria. Instead, they will rely on the US military to take the lead, underlining their reliance on Washington as an external security guarantor. GCC states will become increasingly critical of the US air campaign if it fails to roll back ISG gains. Gulf authorities are using the extremist threat to delegitimise and ban most forms of political and popular dissent. Greater security cooperation with Jordan will solidify the kingdom's incorporation into a GCC sphere of regional influence.

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