Uganda president co-opts to dilute Mbabazi threat

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Regional Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections

Subject Election outlook in Uganda. Significance President Yoweri Museveni is confirmed as the National Resistance Movement's (NRM) official presidential candidate for February 2016 general elections. His most threatening challenger is former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, whose defection is the most significant in a decade. However, in the wake of the NRM party primaries and delegates conference, Museveni has shown his ability to consolidate support among the political elite. Impacts Uganda's elections will distract focus from its official mediation role in Burundi's deteriorating security crisis. However, Museveni may also guard Uganda's position as the regional mediator for fear of losing influence. Burundi is at high risk of civil conflict, with repercussions for regional stability ahead of Uganda's elections.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Pakistan’s Sharif may call snap polls to save future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Joint Investigation ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Government

Subject The political impact of the 'Panamagate' scandal. Significance A five-member Supreme Court bench on April 20 ordered the constitution of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the legitimacy of the offshore assets (mostly in the United Kingdom and Qatar) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. In coming months, the Court bench will monitor and oversee the investigation in which both civilian law enforcement and military intelligence will participate. Impacts The government will avoid challenging the military’s foreign policy this year. The scandal will increase pressure on the political elite to ensure public probity. A military coup is highly improbable at present.

Failed reforms threaten to weaken Iraq's Abadi

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wide Scale

Significance His call comes as Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is seeking to revive plans for wide-scale reform of government, with a new initiative to replace cabinet ministers with technocrats. Launched last August, the reforms seek to cut Iraq's bloated government and tackle rampant corruption, but are encountering tough opposition from all sectors of the political elite. Impacts Efforts to push through ministerial change will weaken Abadi's support base among Shia parties. Longer term, failure on reform may see Abadi lose the backing of the Shia clergy, his strongest source of political support and legitimacy. This would leave Abadi dependent on US support, increasing the risk of efforts to remove him and replace with a pro-Iran figure. Without reform, Iraq's fiscal crisis will worsen and pressure for decentralised regional government will increase.

Indian middle-class support for Modi may prove fickle

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Middle Classes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Political Responses

Significance Proponents of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic agenda await the political responses of India's urban middle classes. It was above all the urban middle-class vote at the 2014 general elections that took Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA), to its sweeping victory. Impacts BJP could become isolated by relying too much on the middle-class vote. Its lack of interest in rural voters is reflected in its neglect of agrarian strife. Middle-class voters seek quality employment, which Modi's economic policy is failing to generate.

Moldovan political turmoil will boost pro-Russia camp

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Aid ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Large Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Eastern Partnership ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
The Eu

Subject The rift between the political elite and the electorate. Significance The crisis of late 2014, in which politicians were accused of complicity in a large bank fraud, continues to create political turbulence in Moldova. The arrest of former Prime Minister Vlad Filat in October led to further crisis in which one ruling coalition was replaced by another as street protests by an alliance of pro-Russian and pro-European forces continued. The approval of Pavel Filip as prime minister in January did nothing to strengthen the government's credibility in the eyes of an angry electorate. Impacts Snap parliamentary elections would significantly strengthen Russia's position, as pro-Moscow parties would gain ground. The EU will become cautious about financial aid for Eastern Partnership members and will demand evidence of transparency. The Romanian political establishment will lose its enthusiasm for unification with a dysfunctional Moldova.

Prospects for China in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type

Significance All the signs are that Xi will take a third term, though the secrecy of the political elite means alternatives cannot be ruled out completely.

Election delay will not solve Libya's problems

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
The Core

Significance This is expected to be followed by the first parliamentary election since 2014, at some point in early 2022. It now looks increasingly likely that both elections will be delayed. The electoral process lacks the elements it would need to be truly transformative, but it is prompting shifts in the political elite which will dictate developments for at least the next year. Impacts Khalifa Haftar will keep pushing for his armed group to form the core of Libya’s future army Seif al-Islam Qadhafi’s candidacy in the elections is unlikely to result in him becoming president. Aguileh Saleh looks set to stay on as House of Representatives speaker with no clear date for parliamentary elections.

Algeria aims to put its finances on a sustainable path

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Investment Law ◽  
Subsidy Reform

Significance The prime minister and finance minister, Aymane Benabderrahmane, has loaded some substantive policy reforms into the 2022 budget law, including a provision for reform of the subsidy system, revisions to the investment law and changes to income tax. Impacts There is a high risk that within the next five years there will be a slump in oil and gas prices. Algeria’s heavy reliance on hydrocarbons makes it particularly vulnerable once momentum builds up for global decarbonisation. Subsidy reform will entail price increases, even if they are gradually applied.

Sirisena win spells change and challenge for Sri Lanka

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Potential Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Game Changer

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document