Indian and US domestic issues impact bilateral ties

Subject Outlook for India-US ties. Significance US President Donald Trump’s visit to India last month provided a boost to India-US ties. The trip came at a time when bilateral relations are coming under some strain over trade, defence and Kashmir. Impacts India and the United States may soon sign a Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement, paving the way for greater military cooperation. A commitment that Washington and Delhi made to work together on disease outbreaks will provide opportunities for cooperation over COVID-19. Intensifying street protests and violence in India could dissuade some US investors from doing business there.

Subject Strategic entanglement of India, Pakistan and the United States. Significance Washington is slashing Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) payments to Islamabad, in the belief that Pakistan harbours the very militants that the United States is fighting in Afghanistan. Washington envisions deeper military cooperation overall with Delhi, which accuses Pakistan of sponsoring militants who act against India. Islamabad is being driven closer to Washington’s rival Beijing. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to complete an anti-militant fence on the disputed border with Afghanistan. India is likely to resist any calls from the United States to begin joint patrols in the Indian Ocean. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will face security risks from Islamist militants and Baloch separatists.


Subject Sweden-US defence cooperation. Significance The defence cooperation agreement signed on June 8 between the United States and Sweden lends political weight and direction to a bilateral defence and security relationship that is rapidly changing and has taken on new importance in both Stockholm and Washington as the security situation in the Baltic Sea region continues to be turbulent and contested. The agreement will enable more direct bilateral cooperation between the United States and Sweden in the fields of training and exercises, capabilities development, research and development, and industrial collaboration. Impacts Regular exercises with NATO allies and security partners like Sweden will see greater numbers of US troops in the Baltic region. Industrial collaboration between Swedish and US defence firms will present commercial opportunities. Finland may pursue a similar bilateral framework for security cooperation with the United States.


Subject Headwinds for US-ASEAN trade. Significance The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) last month withdrew ‘developing country’ status from several countries, including half the ASEAN states. This 'developing' status to a large extent protects countries that have it from US investigations into their trade practices. Impacts US companies will file more trade complaints against their South-east Asian rivals because the threshold for such complaints will be lower. More US tariffs on goods from ASEAN countries would increase the cost of doing business for South-east Asia. South-east Asian public opinion towards the United States will deteriorate.


Significance The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China are the body’s five permanent members. India wants to join that group. Impacts India-China border tensions could surge in early 2021, worsening bilateral relations. Delhi will deepen security ties with Washington and its other partners in the ‘Quad’ grouping, Tokyo and Canberra. India will push for more stringent selection of UN peacekeepers.


Significance The potato ban is one of several issues in which, when seen from Ottawa, US policy looks less neighbourly that many in the United States might assume. Although Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made much of his relationship with President Joe Biden, Canadians are increasingly aware of these irritants in bilateral relations. Impacts An escalation in retaliatory tariffs is possible over the next few years, with damaging effects for both economies. Ottawa is likely to seek a new agreement on softwood lumber duties before the end of the Biden administration. The chance of a rupture in the section of a Canadian pipeline that runs through Michigan may rise if legal disputes delay action. Washington has made little effort to consult with Ottawa over policy towards China and this is unlikely to change.


2013 ◽  
Vol 79 (13) ◽  
pp. 4164-4165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Musafiri Karama ◽  
Carlton L. Gyles

ABSTRACTShiga toxin-producingEscherichia coli(STEC) O111:NM is an important serotype that has been incriminated in disease outbreaks in the United States. This study characterized cattle STEC O111:NM for virulence factors and markers by PCR. Major conclusions are that STEC O111:NM characterized in this study lacksstx2and the full spectrum ofnlegene markers, and it has an incomplete OI-122.


Significance An EU election observation mission continues to deploy, despite the government’s withdrawal from Norwegian-led dialogue efforts. The opposition goes into the elections divided and in some cases reluctantly. The International Criminal Court (ICC) decision to advance an investigation into the government has re-energised voices in favour of an electoral boycott, including US Senator Marco Rubio. Impacts The extradition of Venezuelan presidential adviser Alex Saab to the United States will add to the strain in bilateral relations. Hawkish elements in the United States and on the Venezuelan right will increase pressure on opposition groups to boycott elections. The International Contact Group will seek to strengthen opposition confidence in elections as a first step on a slow road back to democracy.


Subject Finnish-US defence agreement. Significance In response to growing Russian assertiveness in the Baltic Sea region since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, Finland has pursued closer cooperation with NATO and the United States. It signed a bilateral cooperation agreement with the United States on October 7. Impacts Cooperation in areas such as training and exercises, information sharing and joint research and development will increase. The agreement does not include any binding mutual defence commitments. Finland is likely to push for greater defence cooperation with the EU.


Subject Rise of Islamist parties in Pakistan. Significance A three-week protest led by Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) calling for the resignation of the law minister from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) came to an end on November 27, with the Islamists apparently emerging victorious from the standoff. Earlier in the month, several religious parties agreed to revive the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) alliance which contested polls in the 2000s. Impacts Pakistan will face greater pressure from the United States to act against militants, straining bilateral relations. India will reiterate claims that Pakistan is not serious about containing cross-border terrorism. Attacks on religious minorities, and cases of blasphemy, are likely to increase.


Subject Prospects for the Middle East in the fourth quarter. Significance The ratification of the nuclear deal in Iran and the United States will pave the way to Iran's diplomatic and economic re-emergence, but will also raise tensions on proxy fronts across the region. Further low oil prices will trouble the region's energy exporters, while civil conflicts in Libya and Syria face turning-points.


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