Post-Manila US pivot may be coming to South-east Asia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Philippine Government

Significance US policymakers feel there is sufficient support for the United States elsewhere in the Philippine government and population to erode Duterte's threats to unravel the alliance. Nonetheless, Washington is considering alternative South-east Asian partners. Impacts Japan's role as an interlocutor between Manila and Washington on security issues could grow. Duterte might meet outgoing President Barack Obama in Peru at the November 19-20 APEC meeting. However, should this occur, it is unlikely to improve Philippine-US ties much if at all. Rumours of human rights abuses in the Philippines will anger US members of Congress, further deteriorating ties.

South-east Asia coastguard growth could see friction

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Capacity Building ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Territorial Claims

Subject Development of South-east Asian coastguards and their geopolitical implications. Significance Senior coastguard officers from Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States will meet later this year to discuss cooperation and capacity-building -- and the assertive actions of China's coastguard in littoral waters. With external partners' support, South-east Asian states are developing their coastguards to fight crime and assert maritime territorial claims. Impacts Fishing activities will probably trigger spats between South-east Asian and China's coastguards. Gradually, inter-operability between South-east Asian coastguards will expand. Tokyo and Washington will use coastguards to deepen ties with South-east Asian countries. There could be frictions between Indonesia's and Malaysia's coastguards over waters around Ambalat.

Pandemic fallout hits South-east Asian defence budgets

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Economic Distress ◽  
Defence Spending

Subject South-east Asian defence budgets. Significance The pressure of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic is prompting many South-east Asian governments to cut defence spending and postpone or cancel new arms acquisitions. Meanwhile, China and the United States continue to vie for influence in the region. Impacts Piracy attacks will increase across the region as socio-economic distress rises and budgets for navies and coast guards fall. ASEAN unity will fracture as tensions among member states increase. Economic problems will cause political instability across South-east Asia, possibly even leading to military coups in certain countries.

US aims to check Russia in Central Asia 'Great Game'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Great Game ◽  
Public Criticism

Subject US relations with Central Asia. Significance US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Central Asia in early November, in an effort to boost Washington's influence in a region that is increasingly dominated by Russia and also China. Central Asian states worry that the region has declined in importance for the United States, owing to Washington's overall drawdown of forces in Afghanistan. Impacts Over-reliance on remittances will pose major risk to Central Asian economies. Central Asian states will continue to try and extract concessions from United States, Russia and China. Washington will diminish its public criticism of human rights abuses in Central Asia but maintain pressure in private.

South-east Asia-US trade preferences debates beckon

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The preferential US trade programme faces renewal or lapse by December 31. South-east Asia’s economies are structured to take advantage of the GSP and many of the products exported to the United States under GSP (such as light manufactures and seafood) are important for South-east Asia’s supply chains. Impacts Vietnam may make another application for inclusion in the US GSP programme. The more authoritarian South-east Asian countries could find it easier to gain US GSP preferences under Trump. The Trump administration could use the GSP as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations or renegotiations.

US removal of import benefits will hit ASEAN trade

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Cost

Subject Headwinds for US-ASEAN trade. Significance The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) last month withdrew ‘developing country’ status from several countries, including half the ASEAN states. This 'developing' status to a large extent protects countries that have it from US investigations into their trade practices. Impacts US companies will file more trade complaints against their South-east Asian rivals because the threshold for such complaints will be lower. More US tariffs on goods from ASEAN countries would increase the cost of doing business for South-east Asia. South-east Asian public opinion towards the United States will deteriorate.

South-east Asia monarchs will play key political roles

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Political Roles

Significance The kings of Malaysia and Thailand, respectively, are at the centre of attention amid their countries’ ongoing political crises. The pandemic-related state of emergency declared by Malaysia’s king has eased pressure on the beleaguered prime minister. Pro-democracy protesters in Thailand continue to press for reform of the country’s monarchy. Impacts Under President Joe Biden, the United States will urge several South-east Asian countries to improve their human rights records. Malaysia’s premier will face pressure from governing partners and opponents alike to call snap elections as soon as the emergency ends. The Thai establishment will steadfastly resist calls for monarchical reform.

Pope's Mexico visit will highlight unresolved problems

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Indigenous Groups ◽  
The Government

Significance The visit will be his fourth to the Americas (following trips to Brazil in 2013, Ecuador, Bolivia and Paraguay in July 2015 and Cuba and the United States in September 2015) and will include stops in Mexico City, the neighbouring state of Mexico, and the states of Chihuahua, Chiapas, and Michoacan -- all of which suffer from serious problems of corruption, violent crime, poverty, inequality and human rights abuses. Impacts While the Pope is popular with most Mexicans, his visit is unlikely to reverse the country's trend towards secularism. Nevertheless, it may help to improve the Church's image, especially amongst indigenous groups, and slow the progress of Protestantism. Neither the government nor the opposition -- both tainted by corruption -- will derive any direct political benefit from the visit.

South-east Asian migrant crisis will not be the last

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Capacity Building ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Bangladeshi Migrants

Subject The outlook for the current migrant crisis in South-east Asia. Significance Over the last three weeks, an estimated 25,000 Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants have sought to reach Indonesia and Malaysia, on boats mostly abandoned by people smugglers based in Myanmar, Bangladesh and Thailand. Malaysia and Indonesia have received around 3,000 such migrants so far. Seeking a solution, a regional summit will be held in Bangkok on May 29, including representatives from Myanmar, Australia and the United States. Meanwhile, suspected people-smuggling camps discovered in Thailand and Malaysia in May have led to allegations of official complicity. Impacts Amid allegations of official complicity in people smuggling and trafficking, scrutiny of the Thai and Malaysian governments will increase. Discovery of further people smuggling camps in other ASEAN countries, and allegations of official complicity, are possible. Capacity-building for ASEAN states' police forces, and ASEAN itself, is needed to counter people smuggling and trafficking. South-east Asian countries will enhance maritime patrols to search for other migrants.

End to Philippine-US security pact will benefit China

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Military Personnel ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Defence Cooperation

Subject Philippine-US security ties. Significance President Rodrigo Duterte’s government earlier this month notified Washington that Manila was withdrawing from the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which provides a legal framework for US military personnel to deploy to the Philippines on a temporary basis. The withdrawal will come into effect 180 days from notification. Impacts Fallout from abrogating the VFA could include increased tensions between the United States and China. Washington will count on certain South-east Asian countries such as Singapore to increase defence cooperation with the United States. US military ties with Japan, South Korea and Australia will remain strong.

Closer Thai-China ties will not risk US security link

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategic Cooperation ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Security Relations

Significance Both the Thai and Chinese militaries are participating. The Thai junta -- keen to bolster strategic cooperation with Beijing and to attract Chinese infrastructure investment -- has made much of Chinese participation in the exercise, to the consternation of Japan and Thailand's long-standing treaty ally the United States. Beijing, for its part, seeks to build alliances in South-east Asia and capitalise on Thailand's market and investment opportunities. Impacts US firms are unlikely to be marginalised in the Thai market, even though their presence in Thailand is limited. Security relations will dominate US-Thai relations for the foreseeable future. Japan will continue to boost security relations with South-east Asian partners.

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