South-east Asia monarchs will play key political roles

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Political Roles

Significance The kings of Malaysia and Thailand, respectively, are at the centre of attention amid their countries’ ongoing political crises. The pandemic-related state of emergency declared by Malaysia’s king has eased pressure on the beleaguered prime minister. Pro-democracy protesters in Thailand continue to press for reform of the country’s monarchy. Impacts Under President Joe Biden, the United States will urge several South-east Asian countries to improve their human rights records. Malaysia’s premier will face pressure from governing partners and opponents alike to call snap elections as soon as the emergency ends. The Thai establishment will steadfastly resist calls for monarchical reform.

South-east Asia coastguard growth could see friction

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Capacity Building ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Territorial Claims

Subject Development of South-east Asian coastguards and their geopolitical implications. Significance Senior coastguard officers from Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States will meet later this year to discuss cooperation and capacity-building -- and the assertive actions of China's coastguard in littoral waters. With external partners' support, South-east Asian states are developing their coastguards to fight crime and assert maritime territorial claims. Impacts Fishing activities will probably trigger spats between South-east Asian and China's coastguards. Gradually, inter-operability between South-east Asian coastguards will expand. Tokyo and Washington will use coastguards to deepen ties with South-east Asian countries. There could be frictions between Indonesia's and Malaysia's coastguards over waters around Ambalat.

South-east Asia-US trade preferences debates beckon

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The preferential US trade programme faces renewal or lapse by December 31. South-east Asia’s economies are structured to take advantage of the GSP and many of the products exported to the United States under GSP (such as light manufactures and seafood) are important for South-east Asia’s supply chains. Impacts Vietnam may make another application for inclusion in the US GSP programme. The more authoritarian South-east Asian countries could find it easier to gain US GSP preferences under Trump. The Trump administration could use the GSP as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations or renegotiations.

South-east Asian migrant crisis will not be the last

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Capacity Building ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Bangladeshi Migrants

Subject The outlook for the current migrant crisis in South-east Asia. Significance Over the last three weeks, an estimated 25,000 Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants have sought to reach Indonesia and Malaysia, on boats mostly abandoned by people smugglers based in Myanmar, Bangladesh and Thailand. Malaysia and Indonesia have received around 3,000 such migrants so far. Seeking a solution, a regional summit will be held in Bangkok on May 29, including representatives from Myanmar, Australia and the United States. Meanwhile, suspected people-smuggling camps discovered in Thailand and Malaysia in May have led to allegations of official complicity. Impacts Amid allegations of official complicity in people smuggling and trafficking, scrutiny of the Thai and Malaysian governments will increase. Discovery of further people smuggling camps in other ASEAN countries, and allegations of official complicity, are possible. Capacity-building for ASEAN states' police forces, and ASEAN itself, is needed to counter people smuggling and trafficking. South-east Asian countries will enhance maritime patrols to search for other migrants.

ASEAN-India naval ties are symbolic, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Role

Subject The outlook for Indian naval engagement with South-east Asian countries and ASEAN. Significance At the ASEAN summit in mid-November, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi underlined India's 'Look East' policy, pledging to cultivate diplomatic, economic and security relationships with South-east Asia. One manifestation of Delhi's willingness to undertake a more strategic regional role is the Indian navy's growing portfolio of partnerships with South-east Asian navies. Amid concerns over China's maritime assertiveness, India's navy has been welcomed in the region as a security partner. Impacts India will avoid South-east Asian undertakings that may provoke China. Delhi will need to define 'Look East' policies concretely to convince South-east Asia fully of Indian strategic utility. Modi will expand bilateral naval exercises, humanitarian aid and counter-piracy/smuggling efforts in South-east Asia.

US/China self-sufficiency drives could cut world GDP

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Binary Outcome ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Comment ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Us Trade Policy

Significance Some key consumer goods where the imbalance is particularly stark, including smartphones and laptops, have been left off the list. Moreover, the list will be subject to 30 days public comment. Impacts US restriction on technology transfer to China could benefit other Asian countries if manufacturers move, especially to South-east Asia. The tariffs imposed by the United States on China may be watered down, but NAFTA withdrawal is a more binary outcome. Politics will dominate US trade policy this year; fear of Chinese retaliation in swing states will drive the 'public comment' period.

Pandemic fallout hits South-east Asian defence budgets

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Economic Distress ◽  
Defence Spending

Subject South-east Asian defence budgets. Significance The pressure of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic is prompting many South-east Asian governments to cut defence spending and postpone or cancel new arms acquisitions. Meanwhile, China and the United States continue to vie for influence in the region. Impacts Piracy attacks will increase across the region as socio-economic distress rises and budgets for navies and coast guards fall. ASEAN unity will fracture as tensions among member states increase. Economic problems will cause political instability across South-east Asia, possibly even leading to military coups in certain countries.

Post-Manila US pivot may be coming to South-east Asia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Philippine Government

Significance US policymakers feel there is sufficient support for the United States elsewhere in the Philippine government and population to erode Duterte's threats to unravel the alliance. Nonetheless, Washington is considering alternative South-east Asian partners. Impacts Japan's role as an interlocutor between Manila and Washington on security issues could grow. Duterte might meet outgoing President Barack Obama in Peru at the November 19-20 APEC meeting. However, should this occur, it is unlikely to improve Philippine-US ties much if at all. Rumours of human rights abuses in the Philippines will anger US members of Congress, further deteriorating ties.

US removal of import benefits will hit ASEAN trade

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Cost

Subject Headwinds for US-ASEAN trade. Significance The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) last month withdrew ‘developing country’ status from several countries, including half the ASEAN states. This 'developing' status to a large extent protects countries that have it from US investigations into their trade practices. Impacts US companies will file more trade complaints against their South-east Asian rivals because the threshold for such complaints will be lower. More US tariffs on goods from ASEAN countries would increase the cost of doing business for South-east Asia. South-east Asian public opinion towards the United States will deteriorate.

Consigned to hedge: south-east Asia and America's ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ strategy

2020 ◽  
Vol 96 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
See Seng Tan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
The Other ◽  
Great Power ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face

Abstract This article assesses how south-east Asian countries and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have responded to the ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) strategies promoted by the United States and the other countries in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the ‘Quad’: US, Japan, Australia and India). Their nuanced ripostes imply a persistent commitment to hedging and shifting limited alignments in the face of growing great rivalry and the lack of a clear FOIP vision among Quad members. In the face of external pressure to take sides, the ASEAN states are likely to keep hedging through working selectively with China and the United States. Given the United States' apparent preference to balance China and Trump's disregard for multilateralism, ASEAN's ability to maintain its centrality in the evolving regional architecture is in doubt—despite the Quad countries' (belated) accommodation of ASEAN in their FOIP strategies. However, the success of the US strategy depends on Washington's ability to build and sustain the requisite coalition to balance Beijing. ASEAN has undertaken efforts to enhance bilateral security collaboration with China and the United States respectively. In doing so, ASEAN is arguably seeking to informally redefine its centrality in an era of Great Power discord and its ramifications for multilateralism.

Modi seeks to rebuild India's flagging ASEAN ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Regional Transport ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Common ◽  
Border Areas

Subject Outlook for India-ASEAN ties. Significance Speaking at the ASEAN-India and East Asia summits in Vientiane in September, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi singled out South-east Asia as central to India's 'Act East' policy, referring to the "common strategic priorities of securing our societies and bringing peace, stability and prosperity to the region". India has also upgraded defence links with Vietnam, signalling that it seeks a more proactive stance against China's economic influence and territorial assertiveness in South-east Asia. Impacts Regional transport corridors would help ASEAN manufacturers develop supply chains and attract South Asian investment. However, such corridors face security constraints, especially around border areas. India's deepening security ties with the United States, Japan and Australia will help it advance defence relations in South-east Asia.

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