External financing may buoy Tunisia's economy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Industrial Action ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Many

Subject Prospects for the Tunisian economy since the formation of the coalition government. Significance Headwinds to the Tunisian economy are emerging from many directions: industrial action, a security-related shock to tourism and poor rainfall are all providing significant resistance to government efforts to stimulate economic activity. A great deal of focus will turn to how the government handles the many economic and security disruptions it faces. Impacts The decline in global oil prices gives the government some modest breathing space for the national budget. It should also lay the groundwork for longer-term subsidy reduction. However, it will not provide much of a boost to the economy since it is not directly passed through to businesses and consumers.

Ukraine tightens rules to boost COVID vaccine uptake

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Many

Significance This places two-thirds of Ukrainian regions under the most stringent COVID-19 restrictions. In its second pandemic autumn, Ukraine is performing poorly because this year's vaccination programme has been slow to pick up, until a recent acceleration prompted by tougher restrictions. Vaccine hesitancy has been compounded by a scandal involving fake certificates. Impacts The government will blame the COVID-19 surge for poor macroeconomic performance. President Zelensky's standing will be largely unaffected, as responsibility for restrictions is mostly devolved to regions. COVID-19 will not sideline the many challenges facing the government, currently reflected in an emerging cabinet reshuffle.

Third COVID wave will further dampen Algeria's economy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Government

Significance The government has reimposed social distancing restrictions, but a reinvigorated pandemic will hurt the economy further and forestall any economic turnaround. Impacts Algeria may find itself at a disadvantage compared to Morocco and Egypt, which have made greater progress countering the pandemic. The longer Algeria’s economic turnaround is delayed, the more likely it is that the country will have to resort to external financing. If the country’s economic crisis becomes more acute, the president would likely reshuffle the cabinet in an effort to shift blame. The president himself may also come under pressure to resign.

Battle to stop Ecuador re-election reform intensifies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Election Reform ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.

Venezuela's Maduro gains breathing space, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Bolivarian Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Broad Base ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government

Significance The party base of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began the process of nominations for primaries that will be convened in June to select candidates for the 2015 National Assembly elections. The government enters the selection process on the back of a rise in popular support catalysed by perceived US aggression and Maduro's strong anti-imperialist narrative. Impacts The broad base of the PSUV nominations process contrasts with MUD plans, fuelling doubts over MUD divisions. Chavista 'battle units' will nominate four candidates, a strategy that is boosting waning enthusiasm for the Bolivarian Revolution. The primaries process strengthens the government's commitment to the parliamentary elections, the date of which has yet to be set.

Smuggling will weigh on Tunisian economy and politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Border Towns ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Significance Essid has been working to form a new coalition government since general elections in late December. The new unity government will face tremendous pressure to jumpstart the economy, ensure political stability, and counter growing security threats. One major challenge -- cross-border smuggling -- poses a particularly serious threat to the new government. Smuggling costs the government some 615 million dollars per year, representing nearly 5% of total tax revenues, and undermines legitimate trade, further damaging growth. Impacts If the government fails to address smuggling, it will continue to lose critical revenue. Yet cracking down on smuggling will probably meet with considerable opposition -- particularly in rural areas and border towns. The new government's lack of a decisive mandate will impede reforms.

Pressure will mount on Mexico's external sector

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Sector

Subject Mexico's external accounts. Significance The plunge in global oil prices represents a significant blow to the Mexican economy, particularly in terms of fiscal revenue. However, a negative impact is also showing in Mexico's external accounts. Moreover, manufacturing exports are contracting, partly due to problems in the automotive sector. Mexico's floating exchange rate is acting as an effective cushion, and its level of international reserves remains comfortable. Nonetheless, the growing external deficits may spark greater uncertainty about the economy's prospects. Impacts If market confidence deteriorates further, the government may activate the 65-billion-dollar Flexible Credit Line that it has with the IMF. The peso should rebound from the all-time nominal lows it has reached, but only after US growth firms up and the oil price stabilises. Despite the increasing external deficits, the government will not introduce protectionist measures and the opposition will not demand them.

Morocco's parliamentary poll will be tight contest

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Education System ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

Significance The election for the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, will be the second since the constitution was revised in 2011. This specified that the leader of the party winning the largest number of seats should be given the first opportunity to form a government. The revision led to the moderate Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (PJD), leading the government for the first time after its victory in the November 2011 poll. Impacts The election will focus attention on contentious reforms to pensions, subsidies and the education system. The months ahead will be dominated by speculation about party alliances and the likely shape of a future coalition government. The palace seems ready to accept a second term for Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane, but is also keen to see PAM within government.

Prospects for Argentina in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Rapid Recovery ◽  
First Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for Argentina in 2017. Significance The government has placed its hopes on a rapid recovery in economic activity and investment after admitting that many indicators have deteriorated in its first year in office. However, while there are some signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, these have yet to be felt at the popular level.

Kazakh policymakers seek growth in non-oil sectors

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large State ◽  
East And West ◽  
The Government ◽  
Improve Access ◽  
Debt Levels

Significance The modest GDP increase is attributed to government support for the economy as well as steadier oil prices and the launch of production at the Kashagan oil field. Low debt levels and substantial reserves give the government scope to invest in non-oil sectors. Impacts The large state role in the economy magnifies the risks of policy mismanagement. Continued investment in infrastructure will help position the country as a bridge between east and west. The Nurly Zhol programme will improve access to affordable houses but could have a distorting effect on the construction industry.

Mexican fiscal consolidation steady despite oil price

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for fiscal consolidation. Significance The significant drop in oil prices should not derail the fiscal consolidation trajectory mapped by President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration, which envisages that the debt/GDP ratio should stabilise by 2017. The fiscal hole opened by reduced oil prices has been compensated with greater taxation income and one-off revenues. Impacts Defying expectations, the oil price plunge did not push the government into an overtly contractionary fiscal correction. An arguably much-needed simplification of the cumbersome taxation regime will not take place due to the government's pledge not to alter it. Loose monetary policy from the autonomous central bank has worked in tandem with the government's fiscal stance.

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