Prospects for US politics in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Learning Process ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
The Political ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Commander In Chief ◽  
Ability To Drive ◽  
Insight Into

Subject Prospects for US politics in 2017. Significance The upset victory of President-elect Donald Trump and Republican control of Congress means that uncertainty about the new administration's priorities and actual ability to drive substantive shifts in government activity will persist for some time, with appointments offering some insight into ideological leanings and policy preferences. However, divisions within the Republican Party, the independent priorities of legislators, the complex machinery of policy-making and the political demands of a restive electorate will shape Trump's learning process as commander-in-chief once in office.

Firepower

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Lacombe
Keyword(s):  
Interest Groups ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Mass Shootings ◽  
National Rifle Association ◽  
Powerful Interest ◽  
Active Base

The National Rifle Association (NRA) is one of the most powerful interest groups in America, and has consistently managed to defeat or weaken proposed gun regulations — even despite widespread public support for stricter laws and the prevalence of mass shootings and gun-related deaths. This book provides an unprecedented look at how this controversial organization built its political power and deploys it on behalf of its pro-gun agenda. Taking readers from the 1930s to the age of Donald Trump, the book traces how the NRA's immense influence on national politics arises from its ability to shape the political outlooks and actions of its followers. The book draws on nearly a century of archival records and surveys to show how the organization has fashioned a distinct worldview around gun ownership and has used it to mobilize its supporters. It reveals how the NRA's cultivation of a large, unified, and active base has enabled it to build a resilient alliance with the Republican Party, and examines why the NRA and its members formed an important constituency that helped fuel Trump's unlikely political rise. The book sheds vital new light on how the NRA has grown powerful by mobilizing average Americans, and how it uses its GOP alliance to advance its objectives and shape the national agenda.

Trump defence spending plans will hit US fiscal limits

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Arsenal ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
President Elect

Significance President-elect Donald Trump plans to expand military spending as part of his "America First" foreign policy but has so far offered few details of how this expansion will be financed. The new budget will have significant commercial implications for private entities involved in US defence procurements and for Washington’s force posture abroad. Impacts Trump may focus on increasing US-based missile defence capabilities instead of regionally focused systems based overseas. Political complications over NATO deployments may ensue if US spending outstrips that of its allies. Expansion of the nuclear arsenal beyond current modernisation plans could spark an arms race with Washington’s rivals.

Economic warfare in Yemen could boost piracy risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The South ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Economic Warfare ◽  
The Many

Significance Since it began in March 2015, the many-sided conflict has become internationalised, following threats to the vital shipping artery in the Bab al-Mandab strait, through which trade worth 700 billion dollars per year passes between Europe and Asia. Previous ceasefires have not held. There is a looming humanitarian crisis. Unpaid public-sector workers are unable to buy food, boosting malnutrition rates. Impacts US President-elect Donald Trump is unlikely to take much interest in the Yemen conflict, leaving mediation to the UN and regional actors. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will confront al-Qaida in the south of the country, but cannot extinguish its tribal support base. Hadi's vice-president, Ali Mohsen, an old enemy of the Huthis and former ally of Saleh, will be an important power broker.

Governance in Brazil will become more challenging

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
New Right ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Rating Agency ◽  
Foreign Currency Debt ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
Ability And Willingness

Significance When credit rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Brazil's foreign currency debt to 'junk' status on September 9, it cited "political challenges" "weighing on the government's ability and willingness to submit a 2016 budget to Congress" consistent with its objective of rebalancing its books. This exemplifies Brazil's serious governance problems, which affect different areas of policy-making. Impacts Spending cuts will further undermine Rousseff's congressional support. A new right is emerging with a traditional liberal agenda. The political reform under discussion does not address key governance issues.

Political restructuring is on the way in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect

Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.

US Democratic resurgence may come in 2018 post-Alabama

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Effects ◽  
The Political ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Economic ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
New Infrastructure

Significance Moore’s candidacy was problematic, so his loss was always possible. However, Republican US President Donald Trump won Alabama by 28 percentage points (pp) over his Democratic rival in 2016, and traditionally Alabama is considered particularly inelastic in its partisan split -- a Democrat had not won election to the Senate from Alabama this century. Impacts Moore may push for a recount of the vote; postal votes can be accepted up to seven days after the election. New infrastructure would have positive economic effects, but these benefits (and the political ones) would take time coming. If Republican congressmen feel politically threatened, talk of impeaching Trump might intensify.

US reports of Afghan withdrawal feed uncertainty

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House

Significance Khalilzad's determined shuttle diplomacy has been thrown into doubt by reports that President Donald Trump wants to halve the 14,000-strong US contingent in Afghanistan. A troop drawdown in Afghanistan would reverse the policy set out in a 2017 strategy for robust engagement influenced by Defense Secretary James Mattis, who announced his resignation on December 20 and left office on December 31. Impacts Erratic White House policy-making will undermine Washington's credibility as a long-term Afghan ally and mentor. Other countries contributing troops to NATO's Afghan mission may reduce their contingents accordingly. Russia will ramp up its own diplomatic effort, although it too is seen as partisan in the Afghan conflict.

London will diverge from the EU on foreign policy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
The Political ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Uk Foreign Policy ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK foreign policy. Significance Last week the EU and United Kingdom published their negotiating objectives for the future relationship. The European Commission’s negotiating mandate largely reflects the Political Declaration, including a desire for close formal cooperation in defence, security and foreign policy. The United Kingdom’s objectives indicate that it wants less formal cooperation as it seeks to de-institutionalise its relationship with the bloc. Impacts The economic impact of Brexit could cut the size of the UK defence budget, which has already fallen more than 10% in real terms since 2010. The absence of formal channels of EU-UK cooperation and coordination could result in a weakening of the EU’s sanctions regime on Russia.  The re-election of US President Donald Trump would herald a further four years of transatlantic tensions.

Japan and Russia set on hard task of normalising ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Peace Treaty ◽  
China Seas ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Northern Territories

Significance Abe's government pursues a policy of expanding economic cooperation with Russia as a route to resolving the Southern Kuril/Northern Territories dispute and signing a bilateral peace treaty. President Vladimir Putin's visit to Japan on December 15-16 did not result in the breakthrough some were expecting. Impacts Better relations with US President-elect Donald Trump may embolden Moscow in negotiating with Japan. Tensions with China focusing on the East and South China seas give Japan an incentive to pursue closer ties with Russia. In Russia, any handover of Kuril territory would be compared with the symbolism of annexing Crimea.

AMLO plans for Central American migrants look naive

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Central America ◽  
Central American ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Regional Migration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Mexico Border ◽  
President Elect

Subject Regional migration issues. Significance Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) on October 3 said US President Donald Trump “looks favourably” on his plans to stem northward migration by promoting economic development in Central America. The remarks followed a call between the leaders that Trump described as “great”, with the US president adding that “we will work well together”. Whether such goodwill will last is doubtful, particularly regarding the issue of migration, on which the leaders have thus far taken diametrically opposed stances. Impacts Increased migration from Nicaragua and Venezuela could test stability in Costa Rica and Panama. Global warming will hit Central America hard, with droughts and flooding affecting food security, fuelling migration. Toughened security on the US-Mexico border will make people smuggling highly profitable for crime cartels.

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