Divisions plague Libya's financial institutions

Subject Divisions in financial institutions. Significance The finance ministry of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) on December 21 called for an urgent meeting of the board of the Central Bank of Libya. More effective financial institutions could provide a strong basis for political reunification and economic revival. Yet the political crisis, corruption and pre-existing weaknesses undermine these institutions. Impacts The GNA will struggle to finance consistent basic services and implement coherent economic policies. Libyans will continue to lose confidence in the GNA, especially if the economy does not pick up. The NOC will still court international oil and gas companies to attract new investment.


Significance Libya’s hydrocarbons sector has seen a period of relative stability since the end in 2020 of eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s military offensive against Tripoli and the formation of the Government of National Unity in early 2021. Oil and gas revenues are central to the national budget -- and their control and distribution are focal points of political contention. Impacts The main risk to oil production in 2022 is the possibility of a renewed political crisis triggered by elections. Prompt payment of salaries and fees will remain important to discouraging private security forces from closing down oil infrastructure. Foreign oil and gas companies will become more cautious about new investment.



Subject The effect of the sacking of the central bank governor. Significance The Algerian cabinet decided on May 31 to replace the long-serving governor of the central bank, Mohammed Laksaci, with Mohammed Loukal, the CEO of the government-owned Exterior Bank of Algeria. The cabinet did not explain the decision, which was issued in the name of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, but the governor had come under criticism from political figures because of the sharp depreciation of the Algerian dinar, and the erosion of foreign exchange reserves. Impacts Loukal will come under pressure to ease import controls, while defending the dinar. Given weak external accounts, further depreciation of the dinar on the black market is likely, along with further erosion of reserves. The government will soon need to resort to international borrowing, which will bring fresh scrutiny of its economic policies. The central bank governor sacking is most likely related to the political struggles within the establishment on who will succeed Bouteflika.



Significance Salafi-jihadi groups in Libya benefit from the security vacuum emanating from the political crisis. IS has been regrouping after losing its headquarters in Sirte in 2016, even as it faces serious setbacks in Iraq and Syria. Al-Qaida-affiliated groups also exploit the neglected south. Impacts A stalled political dialogue will give salafi-jihadi groups like IS the space to regroup, even amid airstrikes. Salafi-jihadi groups will engage in high-profile attacks, targeting government officials and foreigners. Persistent insecurity will inhibit Libyan efforts to reverse economic decline, especially if groups attack oil and gas sites. The spread of extremist groups raises business costs and compels neighbours to close borders, contributing to Libya’s economic isolation.



Subject Libya's economy. Significance Libyan oil production and exports have been rising in the past few months. Domestic and international concern about Libya's economic situation has fluctuated. For decades, public spending depended almost entirely on oil and gas export earnings. However, the political crisis since 2014 disrupted oil production and exports, while spending on major infrastructure and hydrocarbons projects has largely halted. Impacts The gap between the official and black market rates for the Libyan dinar may narrow slightly, but liquidity problems will persist. Oil production is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels before 2018 at the earliest. Libyan and Middle Eastern companies will find opportunities for small- and medium-scale investment.



Subject The prospects for the Libyan economy. Significance Prior to 2011, Libya's oil and gas wealth and its proximity to Europe drew major energy companies and provided large business opportunities in other sectors. The conflict in 2011 and collapse of the government led many foreign companies to freeze their activities in the country. The political crisis and conflict since 2014 have compounded business and economic difficulties, with the rival political blocs also competing for control of public finances and national institutions and companies. Impacts Demand for migrant workers in Libya will remain steady. Infrastructure spending is unlikely to return to pre-2011 levels before 2017. Growth and investment will be concentrated in the private sector.



Subject Algeria's economic outlook. Significance The ongoing political crisis which led to the resignation of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has not yet made any measurable impact on the economy. Yet whoever ends up taking charge of the country’s affairs will face the challenge of galvanising an economy beset with deep structural flaws, amid growing financial pressures as oil and gas revenue is in decline and popular demands for higher public spending have become more insistent. Impacts Oil companies will remain engaged, although they may delay new major investments until there is more clarity on policy. Pressure on the dinar will mount, although thus far the exchange rate has remained stable despite the political turbulence. The government and other political stakeholders’ stance not to seek external financing may not be tenable for much longer.



2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 21-23

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine how female expatriates mobilize couples’ dual-career coordination strategic choices to achieve their own and their partners’ desired career goals. Design/methodology/approach The researcher initially contacted 45 expatriate women in heterosexual relationships by email. More detailed interviews were done verbally with 20 of the women. The participants were asked to explain what actions they had taken, and also the effectiveness of any employer support, to maintain two successful careers Findings The women working were often angry and disappointed with their organizations’ lack of support for their dual career strategies. They adopted strategies of their own to further mutual careers while keeping relationships on track. One is to work with their organizations to secure favorable employment conditions that minimize periods of separation and, if possible, facilitate suitable employment for their partners. A second strategy is to develop personal tactics of cooperation and coordination Originality/value The results are a demonstration to the oil and gas industry that they need to do more to support dual career couples, or they will lose out on a lot of talent.



Subject Outlook for Tanzania's new administration. Significance In his first two months in office, President John Magufuli has been quick to tackle corruption, address falling tax revenues and improve governance. Other economic difficulties still confront his new administration, and he faces the challenge of establishing his authority, which will be vital in securing reforms in the face of vested interests and in addressing the political crisis in Zanzibar. Impacts Low cost carrier Fastjet's new routes and lower fares will help boost intra-East Africa travel, helping regional economic integration. Political cleavages, especially in Zanzibar, could provide inroads for low-level Islamist militant activity, posing moderate threats. Unlike Kenya, where risks are greater, this is unlikely to deter tourism; the sector will also benefit from higher budget allocations. Magafuli's endorsement of the African Union's proposed peacekeeping deployment in Burundi may encourage regional states to back the plan.



Significance The deal aims to create a Government of National Accord (GNA) to end the political crisis between the internationally recognised House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk and the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC). However, there is strong opposition to the deal, not least from the presidents of the rival legislatures. Impacts The GNA will need to address concerns that it will be dominated by western Libyans, especially Misratans. Left unaddressed, this could open the door for renewed calls of autonomy or secessionism from the eastern Cyrenaica province. None of the Libyan factions will prioritise fighting ISG, but they will defend their territories.



Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.



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